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Forums - Website Topics - Americas estimates on the first page

We all know the NPD data for december: 360 - 4.5 Wii - 1.1 PS3 - 0.69 According to the first page: 360 - 5.14 which is 4.5+14% Wii - 1.43 which is 1.1+30% PS3 - 0.91 which is 0.69+32% While 360's 14% looks pretty fair, i dont understand those 30%%. Arent Wii and PS3 numbers overestimated a bit ? (forJanuary,1) On the other hand, if we count 2 weeks of January in, numbers would become underestimated. So can anyone tell me, where did these ~15% come from ?



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amiiam said: We all know the NPD data for december: 360 - 4.5 Wii - 1.1 PS3 - 0.69 According to the first page: 360 - 5.14 which is 4.5+14% Wii - 1.43 which is 1.1+30% PS3 - 0.91 which is 0.69+32% While 360's 14% looks pretty fair, i dont understand those 30%%. Arent Wii and PS3 numbers overestimated a bit ? (forJanuary,1) On the other hand, if we count 2 weeks of January in, numbers would become underestimated. So can anyone tell me, where did these ~15% come from ?
Why would they be underestimated for first 2 weeks of Jan? If you take Jan figures so far into account they look about right. Take VG Charts data as of December: X360 1,248,500 5,024,000 Wii 725,000 1,272,500 PS3 554,500 780,500 Gives Jan to date figures of: X360: 120k Wii: 160k PS3: 130k



That looks reasonable, thanks.



Yes, very reasonable. You are indicating that currently the Xbox 360 is being outsold by Wii AND PS3... Contrary to what is going on on planet earth. I don't understand. NPD is obviously underestimating (and doesn't include Canada - oh yeah plus a dozen consoles sold in Mexico), and that is adjusted by a 30% for PS3 and Wii. Ok, so we go with 30%. However, the same is not applied for the 360. You know, there is a thing called "reality check". You are adding up inaccurate figures (Europe, Asia minus Japan etc are way more inaccurate than NPD) and coming up with something which contradicts a solid fact (shippments). You just can't have 25% of all 360 production to date, sitting on shelves (or on boats)! You must realize at that point that you must be doing something wrong! And I won't tell you nexgenwars is accurate. It probably overestimates 360, and it even more likelly underestimates the PS3. But the 8.26m figure is plain ridiculous. Is it more likely for MS to be "cooking their books" to show more shippments than for this site adding up various sources to be off? My "hunch" is that Europe is underestimated for the 360 (and possibly for the Wii) on VG. Add that with the 30%+NPD which should be applied to the 360 too and you would get within a logical distance of the 10.4 mark (e.g. 1 million would sound logical to me). It is a "hunch" only about the reason behind the discrepancy, the discrepancy itself is much more than a hunch of course!



Well firstly - about Jan sales, there was a massive PS3 shipment on Dec 31st and you have to remember that Wii and PS3 sales in Nov / Dec are purely a function of availability. Demand is there (for Wii especially) to sell plenty more. If Nintendo could ship 500,000 in Jan they could probably sell them. It is not unreasonable to think Wii and maybe PS3 will outsell 360 in the next couple of months as supply catches up with demand. This may have already happened with PS3 but Wii is certainly sold out everywhere still. Secondly, the shipment / sold thing again. PSP shipment figures from Sony for a long time were much higher than DS shipments even though DS was outselling it in every region (albeit only by a small amount in the early days). Everyone suddenly started claiming massive PSP sales in Korea, China, Mexico - contrary to all logic and reasoning - in an attempt to consolidate PSP shipped and sold figures. Now that DS is absolutely thrashing PSP in every region the argument has died down, but still you have PSP shipments of nearly 30m (vs 35m for DS) compared to sales of barely over 20m (vs 35m for DS - sold out everywhere), what is going on there? Is every tracking service in every region in the world massively underestimating PSP sales and getting DS spot on? Same thing seems to be happening with X360. There is no way you can get close to 10 million without making some crazy claim about Korea, China, Mexico etc being massive "unaccounted for" regions. If this was the case then surely we wouldn't be able to match up DS sales so well to shipments? This whole thing is estimates. NPD make estimates based on a (large) sample, Media Create, Dengeki, Chart Track, Famitsu, GFK all do the same. We take base estimates, shipments, projections, use historical trends and so on to come up with our overall estimates. They are never going to be 100% perfect - it is impossible to ever know exactly how many of a console / game have been sold, but we constantly re-assess and readjust in light of new data and info, and strive to make sure the figures are as accurate as possible.



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I already answered in more detail on the other thread, where I had predicted somebody would find an "easy way out" with "massive" sells. You are naive if you believe that a massive shipment will miraculously turn to massive sales for the PS3 when there was already stock in stores. Anyway see the numbers in the other thread...



+1. In fact, Sony recently announced that they shipped 1 million PS3 in Japan. The cumulated sales revealed by Media Create today ( http://www.gamekult.com/articles/A0000054594/ ) are at 553 033 (lower than the VG charts figures... which where updated end of december). It's not a problem of stock anymore for Sony, no more than price (since in Japan, the PS3 is qui te cheap). It's probably more about games or worts, interest.



Well let's keep this to one thread now rather than two so it doesn't become so confusing. Firstly, I don't update the numbers on the site, I am merely a forum mod. Broshnat is the one who owns and runs the site. Secondly, PS3 numbers on the front page are current, not as of end of December - and tie up well with current Famitsu / Media Create figures in Japan. Thirdly, it has been explained how the numbers on the front page are arrived at. They do take figures from various tracking firms and they do take shipments into account and attempt to consolidate the two. Unfortunately, if there is a 7-8 million (as is the case with PSP) or 2m (X360) difference then you can't just scale everything up. Nintendo shipment figures have always been known to represent actual units shipped to stores and for DS / Wii / GC / GBA tie up almost perfectly at any given point with sell through figures. The only way to analyse this is region by region - since publishers give a breakdown per region and since regions like America (US + Canada + small others) and Japan are easy to compare to tracking services this is done on a regular basis. The figures from Europe / Asia etc are harder to compare and consolidate but this is also done wherever possible - even if using rules of thumb from past trends. For example - for Nintendo products UK + France equals around half of the total "others" sales historically. For the first Xbox, about the same. France is a proportionally strong market for Nintendo and UK for Microsoft. For Sony (who are equally strong in most regions) UK+France accounts for just less than half. These kind of rules of thumb and estimates are used where data is incomplete. The methods VGCharts uses to arrive at data is meticulous and detailed and uses over 20 years of sales data and research to base figures on. All criticism is welcome, especially constructive, but like Monty you are coming across as being pretty biased and trying to look for reasons why X360 should be higher because of the amounts shipped. Please trust us from analysing data for many years that a couple of million units difference between sold and shipped is not unheard of, Sony hardware typically differs by 5m units+ and it is even harder to tie up their figures with sell through unless you believe that all tracking services in the world seriously undertrack their hardware (but not software oddly - we can easily tie up total software with Sony's figures but not hardware). The explanations for this are unknown - replacement units being counted (since they have been made and shipped - do they negate units returned from their totals?), PR exagerration of shipped units, units in transit, unit in warehouses, inaccuracies in tracking firms (accounting for much of the difference in our estimated figures vs NPD - we believe they undertracked Wii a little for December for example) etc etc etc. Despite all these issues, our data actually ties up fairly closely with all the major tracking services, and most of the differences you have highlighted are down to our figures representing our projected current sell-through vs the figures you are quoting for the end of December. We are now over 60% of the way through January so sales will be higher than at the end of 2006.