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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why would PS4 win December NPD?

vivster on 02 December 2014
Imnus said:
vivster said:
It seems I stand corrected. I guess nobody was saying that PS4 will win December for sure in US.

Also the reason why I'm focusing on US so much is that the WW race is already done. It's just too easy for the PS4 to sell well elsewhere. So it's boring now.
It only gets juicy if you win on someone else's home turf.

No, some people do think PS4 could win December, but you need to realize that this ultimately depends on the deals available. I mean Xbox have their bundle again at $330 and PS4 doesn't even have any bundles available on Amazon, maybe they're having difficulties to meet demand, this all makes it difficult to predict.

For example I always expected that Sony would have the GTA Bundle the day of release of the game not at the end of the month and their Black Friday bundles to be a little more aggressive. None of this happened, that can fuck up expectations.

Wouldn't that be a reason to have even more modest expectations for December?



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GribbleGrunger on 02 December 2014
thx1139 said:
GribbleGrunger said:

I've given you a little help. Are you incapable of thinking in anything but absolutes?

No, but even considering that notion that not only is Sony holding back some incredible software title that will drive people to the stores for a surprise release is just plain silly.   No leaks, no planned advertisements, just some incredible title.  Yes you put in a disclaimer or 2, but also said wait until the event because apparently you do think there is a real chance.

I don't think there's a real chance. I'm not investing anything in the idea that there WILL be a title. I can't say for certain (and neither can you) that Sony haven't got something up their sleeve. Whether that's a game or promotion or bundle or whatever, I don't know (and neither do you).

So, I'm waiting for the Playstation Event to decide whether the PS4 will win December. Now, could we perhaps stop this pedantic nonsense and call it quits?



 

The PS5 Exists. 


platformmaster918 on 02 December 2014
vivster said:
anamme said:
vivster said:

I've seen this a lot in the recent week. While it's pretty much clear that X1 has November NPD in the bag, people are already pretty much assuming that PS4 will definitely win December NPD. On what basis exactly? What changes in December as opposed to November? X1 is currently in beast mode and I don't see a reason why that would suddenly turn into favor for PS4.

The ACU bundle is still widely available, on Amazon it even got back to its BF price of $329 where it is currentl selling like hotcakes. On PS4 side we have both BF bundles out of stock everywhere, the Destiny only for its old price above $400. The only thing that's available is the Vanilla PS4 for standard price.

Sure that situation may change but for that Sony has to ship a whole bunch of units while MS's supply chain has to break. But even if Sony manages to ship more, the X1 still has the ability to outsell it either way, like we've seen throughout November.

 

The only hope I'm seeing here for Sony to win December NPD is huge shipments, more deals and big revelations at PSX.

All of which are likely to happen, or are currently happening.

Let's hope for the best. I remember times where PS4 didn't need any of those things to outsell X1.

you mean before Xbox had their console going for like $200 with the value of the bundles subtracted




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TheDrill on 02 December 2014

|It won't.
and In January the gap in the US will be pretty much 0, as I have predicted a long time ago.



vivster on 02 December 2014
TheDrill said:
|It won't.
and In January the gap in the US will be pretty much 0, as I have predicted a long time ago.

To close the gap by January the X1 would have to sell about 700k copies more than PS4 in December. Seems like a lofty goal.



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Captain_Tom on 02 December 2014

1) It is already basically selling 1:1 in the US so if this trend continues the PS4 should be selling ahead now.

2) Way, way more PS4's have been shipped to be sold. If the Xbox One sells out then there will still be piles of PS4's left, and since it is praised so well I am sure plenty of people would "Settle" for the PS4 over the X1.



Captain_Tom on 02 December 2014
torok said:
Mike_L said:
 


Price is a big factor and $399 + nothing vs. $329 + ACU + ACBF is a HUGE difference. I didn't know XB1 price would remain $329 after black friday. A victory for PS4 is definitely not given then. It's actually rather unlikely imo.

It's a pity the PS4 has such strong sales worldwide because then Sony won't cut the price. x} I think a price cut equal to XB1's would bring it back to domination in the US.

I do think that MS wil at least keep the console at $349 starting January, or maybe evene $329, without games of course. I can see Sony cutting PS4 to $349 too in the US.


I think Sony will probably keep the Price at $400 for the majority of 2015 while all of its early games drive sales, and then a month before Uncharted 4 comes out they will drop the price to $300 and move shit tons of units with Uncharted 4.



Namiirei on 02 December 2014

Why not wait November NPD first, before making these topics ?

We had the same things in march "Xone already win march NPD, she will sell better than ps4 in april too", because most of users here used vgchartz numbers .

We don't know ANYTHING about the winner of november Npd, not us, not vgchartz, no one.

Only NPD have the reals numbers, and we will know them in a week.



Sixteenvolt420 on 02 December 2014

As long a Xbox keeps the price low, it'll sell. It's just not worth it when it's at the same price as PS4, imo.



Captain_Tom on 02 December 2014
Intrinsic said:
kowenicki said:

How does that change what we are saying?  It is the buying season and price is determining a great deal of what is happening.  That is all we are saying.

And just as many are eating crow on the ONE.  It was dead, it would be beat 2:1 in the US and UK, 10:1 elsewhere... etc etc.

The ONE is hammering the 360's performance and doing just fine.

Fair enough, but being cheaper than the PS4 with two free games is very different from being sold at the exact same price.

And as for the XB1 doing fine, and how well or not its beaten or not... I think you should calm down a bit. The XB1 is doing well this season (and for obviously good reason). But this is not a victory. What happpens if at the end of the year the XB1 has managed 10-11M in sales while the PS4 has done 20M to 21M? What happens when come january the PS4 goes right back to outselling the XB1 every month till november next year? What happens when this time next year the PS4 costs $300-$350 too?


Exactly.  I think it is very obvious that Sony is allowing Xbox to have a Pyrrhic Victory this holiday season.  MS is playing all of their hands:

-Massive price drops less than a year after launch

-Tons of Exclusives

-Insane bundles

-Constant Advertising

MS is playing ALL of their cards right now to do what?  Beat Sony in ONE region in ONE month while wasting tons of money.  From December onwards Sony is gonna fire back with constant exclusives, advertising, and content updates.

What happens if a PS4 slim is launched at $300 next fall next to Uncharted 4 and some other currently seceret exclusive?