FFXIII will hit hard on Japan cuz Japanese ppl love RPG but that doesnt mean it will push the hardware sales enough to beat Wii for weekS, being positive PS3 will pass wii on the FFXIII´s release week. 1 week maybe 2...

I dont think it will happen often for sony. Nintendo is playing a little too smart.

Here's the outline for q1 and q2:
Dec- Wii Fit: Surge in Japan, carried over to Jan
Jan - Smash Bros.: Surge in Japan
Feb - Some good releases worldwide help maintain high demand
March - Smash Bros.: Surge in America
Early April - Many good releases world wide maintain high demand in new fiscal year & Mario Kart Wii: Surge in Japan as SSBB surge starts to die down
Mid April: Mario Kart Wii: Surge in Europe
Late April: Mario Kart Wii: Surge in America & Wii Fit: Surge in Europe.
Early May: Wii Fit: Armageddon in America & Smash Bors: Surge in Europe
Mid May: Wii Ware: Global Surge and expanded interest will lead to higher demand.
June: Third Party and multiconsole software will be featured as summer drought hits.

And this is just Nintendo's 1st party plan. Lets not discount some of the good 3rd party games coming out. And by staggering releases so well, Nintendo is balancing constrained supply to achieve maximum sell-thru. Fairly smart and it causes almost every week to have a surge somewhere in the world. That will make Sony outselling Wii WW very difficult.

Sony's q1 and q2 plan is not nearly as thought out:
Jan - Nothing
Feb - DMC4: Small Surge & Blu-ray win: Small Surge
March - nothing really, maybe Prologue
April - Global Armageddon with GTA4 <-- Sony's best shot at outselling Wii WW for a week or two, but the competition from MS will dampen the impact.
May - nothing really
June - MGS4: global surge <-- Another good chance for sony as nintendo will focus on 3rd pary releases as the summer drought hits.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=N64&reg3=Spain&start=39033&end=39509

So far it happened for two weeks accompanying the European launch but things should get real interesting soon. If you look at the end of the chart to the last few weeks Wii supply and therefore sales have been quite erratic. PS3 sales are more stable and furthermore are on par with Wii sales from last year pre-holidays. I don't know what kind of rollout Nintendo is planning with Wii hardware to accompany Smash's launch or Mario kart's launch but just a small increase in PS3 sales with a price drop or the MGS bundle could definitely put it over the Wii, albeit temporarily obviously.

LOL, never when Nintendo amps production, until then it might pass it when the Wii is out of stock.

It doesn't have to outsell the wii to be a successful console. But you wouldn't know that from reading the internetz.

guys be careful what you say, you NEVER KNOW it can happen look at all the people that were so SURE blu-ray was a mistake by sony and said its gonna fail, i wonder what those people are thinking now?.....LOL

I give the PS3 ONE week to potentially outsell Wii, and that's the launch of FFXIII. Beyond that though, the answer is never.

never lol

Some time around when Pigs fly! Ha Ha Ha! *Throws smoke ball at floor*

 I agree that not being the market leader doesn't automatically make you a failure.  The GC and N64 were not market leaders but made Nintendo a nice profit so they aren't failures.  The PSP is losing to the DS by a large margin and the margin seems to keep growing yet it's doing far better than any other handheld has done so it too should be considered a success.

However I would have to believe Sony would be quite upset if they could not get at least 35% marketshare by the end of the generation.  Both the previous two generations the PS and PS2 have ended with around 70% of the marketshare.  The last time such a massive drop occured is when Nintendo went from 55% marketshare with the SNES down to the 22% marketshare the N64 had.  It took years for them to get back on top and a radical shift in how they go about business (far more emphasis on casual gaming).