Seece said:
Confirmed? Bahahaha. No.
This is all too hypothetical. First off the 80m figure coming 10 weeks later? I don't think so, it seemed pretty obvious it was a recent occurence due to holiday ramp up.
Secondly are you taking into account the artificial FYQ4 where PS2 + PS3 shipped 3.5m, up 900k YOY, despite all trackers (NPD, Mediacreate) and VGC showing PS3 sales down YOY.
PS2 got a big final shipment there you should take into account.
Another thing is Sony's forecasts, the previous year they missed it by 1m, and they never made an announcement or any sort of remark about hitting their 13m forecast (for the year you suggest they shipped 13.9m) that doesn't ring true to me at all.
In fact if they missed it by 1m like everything suggests it did, that puts it at 12m for that year and right on par with 360.
I have no doubt PS3 will pass 360 (and think it may have already) I just don't think it's happened on the scale you suggest and don't think Sony will pass up mentioning it.
That announcement will come one day from Sony, and I can tell all the people that laughed abou how "Sony won't announce it because _________________" they were wrong.
Of course they won't care cos PS3 > 360 officially and that's what they'll say :P.
Edit - and to further disprove you. You suggesting 13.9m for that FY, means you think it was entirely flat YOY, as it did 13.9m the year before.
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Hello, thanks for the feedback. As I said I'm kinda new to this, so of course I missed a few points. It's actually a good thing there's some people to work on the number with me so we could get an estimate as accurate as possible ;)
Yeah I'd found it weird that an announcement is made that late over their data, I only asked to see if people here thinks it could be possible.
About the FYQ4, it's the FY'12 Q4(jan'13-march'13) right? Yeah the ps2 sales were huge that quarter, I took it into account, but I also took into account how the sales seemed to drop a lot at the end of FY'11 (even the Xmas quarter had a drop over usual quarters that year). Therefore the beginning of FY'12 hasn't been bright for the PS2 imo.
But I think you're right now after the other arguments, the PS3 was probably 12.x Millions FY'12. (But damn, that means ps2 about flat yoy!)
About the Sony Shipments PS2 figures, as drake_tolu mentionned, something didn't really match either with their data, so I made a little search and it's possible that some of the sales were counted twice from FY'05 and FY'06 (when they changed their method of reporting sales).
We get 157.9M ps2 as of 2012,march,31st by adding all the shipment numbers, but GAF had 155.1 by taking the 138.8M announcement as of June'09 (while it is 141.x M by adding all shipments numbers from earning releases since the beginning) and then adding with the sales of every quarters to match a 155.1 as of 2012,march,31st.
I'll update the OP this weekend when I have some more time. (For now it looks like I'll add 1M ps2 and remove 1M ps3 on my FY'12/LTD estimate, and will probably check more for the 2.8 M difference ps2 LTD figure as of March 2012)
Thanks to the others also for apreciating the topic and the small effort I put into it! Need to get a sleep now, as It's already late (2.30AM) for a week day but I'll be here tomorrow again to discuss the numbers!
Prediction: End of 2015 Hardware sales (as of January 20, 2015)
Wii U: 12.1M | XBO: 19.8M | PS4: 36.0M | 3DS: 58.5M | PSV: 11.7M
