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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict XB1 US Sales! XB1 outselling PS4 OVER 3:1 on Amazon US! Sunset Bundle up 11,000%, 5 XB1 Skus in Top 40 Vs 1 PS4

 

Predict US Sales for Week Ending 8th

0 - 50k BOMBA 117 20.78%
 
51k - 100k 70 12.43%
 
101k - 150k 67 11.90%
 
151k - 200k 62 11.01%
 
201k - 250k 52 9.24%
 
251k - 300k 37 6.57%
 
301k - 350k 22 3.91%
 
351k+ INSANITY 134 23.80%
 
Total:561
steverhcp02 said:
binary solo said:
TiagoCosta said:
binary solo said:
A bit of volatility coming in to Amazon lately. PS4 has gone back into the top 20, SO bundle and vanilla Xb one outside the top 20.

What's up with Titanfall PC version owning the #1 position for quite a while now?

SO bundle being out of stock of course is gonna keep dropping, ONE only sku is actually still rising since the price drop announcement, it never was that high as it is now.

being sold for 10 dollars, that's why.

It's more that there is a 7 placing gap between Xb one and PS4 at the moment and PS4 is back in the top 20. Pretty sure Xb one was within about 2 or 3 placings at one stage, which was when PS4 was at about position 22 or 23.

What do the hourlies measure? if SO bundle has been sold out for several hours now shouldn't it be gone from the top 100 by now? Or is the hourly best seller list showing sales over a longer time scale than just a moving window of the last few hours? Is it a 24 hr moving window, 48 hr, longer? At least with monthly you know the exact timescale of the sales. I hope the thread will switch to the monhtly list when that finally comes up for November as that gives us a better medium term indication of relative sales. For imstance it will give us a more true indication of the performance of the SO bundle. The bundle burns bright, but it also burns short. So once we get the monthly data coming through it'll be interesting to see its position relative to the CoD and Ass Creed bundles over that longer timescale. And SO bundle relative to PS4, which sells lower on an hourly basis, but as it sells all day every day the cumulative effect should put PS4 ahead of the SO bundle. I expect its limited numbers should mean vanilla Xb one will be ahead of the SO bundle towards the later half of the month.

Ha, didn't notice the price. That'll do it.

You have pretty much summed up and explained what most rational posters have been trying to explain for days. The SO bundle has literally 3 units avilable from a 3rd part seller at the time of my post going for almost $100 above retail value yet it is still "in the top 40"

People seem to think this is a real time sales per hour of the quantity for an entire year condensed to an average of each hour....constantly flowing. The daily updates for the year so far of 2014 have shown us that the Xbox One SKU at 98 has not even sold enough during this spike to even move from 98th position for the year ahead of Command and Conquer Ulimate Edition that is nearly 3 years old.....not aggregate sales but just in 2014.

Movement on the 2014 yearly sellers list will point toward sustained and substantial sales whereas this revolving hourly door does absolutely nothing to project sales. But in an age where many feel compelled to tweet about what ingredients they are puttig in their salad for lunch and people then feel compelled to validate those ingredients with immediate approval we find ourselves in this predicament.

Excellent post,  sums it up. It will fall on deaf ears here though. 



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steverhcp02 said:

binary solo said:

It's more that there is a 7 placing gap between Xb one and PS4 at the moment and PS4 is back in the top 20. Pretty sure Xb one was within about 2 or 3 placings at one stage, which was when PS4 was at about position 22 or 23.

What do the hourlies measure? if SO bundle has been sold out for several hours now shouldn't it be gone from the top 100 by now? Or is the hourly best seller list showing sales over a longer time scale than just a moving window of the last few hours? Is it a 24 hr moving window, 48 hr, longer? At least with monthly you know the exact timescale of the sales. I hope the thread will switch to the monhtly list when that finally comes up for November as that gives us a better medium term indication of relative sales. For imstance it will give us a more true indication of the performance of the SO bundle. The bundle burns bright, but it also burns short. So once we get the monthly data coming through it'll be interesting to see its position relative to the CoD and Ass Creed bundles over that longer timescale. And SO bundle relative to PS4, which sells lower on an hourly basis, but as it sells all day every day the cumulative effect should put PS4 ahead of the SO bundle. I expect its limited numbers should mean vanilla Xb one will be ahead of the SO bundle towards the later half of the month.

Ha, didn't notice the price. That'll do it.

You have pretty much summed up and explained what most rational posters have been trying to explain for days. The SO bundle has literally 3 units avilable from a 3rd part seller at the time of my post going for almost $100 above retail value yet it is still "in the top 40"

People seem to think this is a real time sales per hour of the quantity for an entire year condensed to an average of each hour....constantly flowing. The daily updates for the year so far of 2014 have shown us that the Xbox One SKU at 98 has not even sold enough during this spike to even move from 98th position for the year ahead of Command and Conquer Ulimate Edition that is nearly 3 years old.....not aggregate sales but just in 2014.

Movement on the 2014 yearly sellers list will point toward sustained and substantial sales whereas this revolving hourly door does absolutely nothing to project sales. But in an age where many feel compelled to tweet about what ingredients they are puttig in their salad for lunch and people then feel compelled to validate those ingredients with immediate approval we find ourselves in this predicament.

The 2014 list hasn't updated for 3 days



For those looking toward a more reasonable measurement and have the patience to wait daily (asking a lot I know) consider this. If we use Seece's same method and apply a degrading sales amount considering we have 9 months of accurate data and apply it to the 2014 amazon bestsellers list we can get this:

Degrading rank starting at 2 million units sold for #1 to 0 units sold for 100 this applies 20,000 units per spot and would give us the following sales through 10 months of 2014 on amazon for console sales with a good barometer being 9 months of NPD sales

PS4 #4 and #28 = 1.6 and 1.46 for a total of 3.06 million

One #51 and #52 and #98 = 1 and .98 and .02 or 2 million

very similar to our known data acquired via NPD

Granted one must assume with these figures that the Titanfall bundle outsold the base One SKU by double and that the destiny bundle sold nearly as much the entire year as teh base PS4 model. Using this method we see roughly the same sales gap as tracked by NPD, but somewhat lopsided toward the top numbers on the rankings.

This means it makes more sense to assume that each spot on the yearly seller list is closer to 20,000 units sold for each movement. Again, it is imperfect but it at least is reasonable, actually, comparible to known numbers, and decreases volitility and error for arbitrary hourly rankings with no concept of quantity.



jlmurph2 said:
steverhcp02 said:

binary solo said:

It's more that there is a 7 placing gap between Xb one and PS4 at the moment and PS4 is back in the top 20. Pretty sure Xb one was within about 2 or 3 placings at one stage, which was when PS4 was at about position 22 or 23.

What do the hourlies measure? if SO bundle has been sold out for several hours now shouldn't it be gone from the top 100 by now? Or is the hourly best seller list showing sales over a longer time scale than just a moving window of the last few hours? Is it a 24 hr moving window, 48 hr, longer? At least with monthly you know the exact timescale of the sales. I hope the thread will switch to the monhtly list when that finally comes up for November as that gives us a better medium term indication of relative sales. For imstance it will give us a more true indication of the performance of the SO bundle. The bundle burns bright, but it also burns short. So once we get the monthly data coming through it'll be interesting to see its position relative to the CoD and Ass Creed bundles over that longer timescale. And SO bundle relative to PS4, which sells lower on an hourly basis, but as it sells all day every day the cumulative effect should put PS4 ahead of the SO bundle. I expect its limited numbers should mean vanilla Xb one will be ahead of the SO bundle towards the later half of the month.

Ha, didn't notice the price. That'll do it.

You have pretty much summed up and explained what most rational posters have been trying to explain for days. The SO bundle has literally 3 units avilable from a 3rd part seller at the time of my post going for almost $100 above retail value yet it is still "in the top 40"

People seem to think this is a real time sales per hour of the quantity for an entire year condensed to an average of each hour....constantly flowing. The daily updates for the year so far of 2014 have shown us that the Xbox One SKU at 98 has not even sold enough during this spike to even move from 98th position for the year ahead of Command and Conquer Ulimate Edition that is nearly 3 years old.....not aggregate sales but just in 2014.

Movement on the 2014 yearly sellers list will point toward sustained and substantial sales whereas this revolving hourly door does absolutely nothing to project sales. But in an age where many feel compelled to tweet about what ingredients they are puttig in their salad for lunch and people then feel compelled to validate those ingredients with immediate approval we find ourselves in this predicament.

The 2014 list hasn't updated for 3 days

How do you know?



steverhcp02 said:
jlmurph2 said:
steverhcp02 said:

You have pretty much summed up and explained what most rational posters have been trying to explain for days. The SO bundle has literally 3 units avilable from a 3rd part seller at the time of my post going for almost $100 above retail value yet it is still "in the top 40"

People seem to think this is a real time sales per hour of the quantity for an entire year condensed to an average of each hour....constantly flowing. The daily updates for the year so far of 2014 have shown us that the Xbox One SKU at 98 has not even sold enough during this spike to even move from 98th position for the year ahead of Command and Conquer Ulimate Edition that is nearly 3 years old.....not aggregate sales but just in 2014.

Movement on the 2014 yearly sellers list will point toward sustained and substantial sales whereas this revolving hourly door does absolutely nothing to project sales. But in an age where many feel compelled to tweet about what ingredients they are puttig in their salad for lunch and people then feel compelled to validate those ingredients with immediate approval we find ourselves in this predicament.

The 2014 list hasn't updated for 3 days

How do you know?

In the Xbox Empire thread we were monitoring Halo MCC's placement on the list. For a while it moved 2-3 places up the list till it stopped at 76 or something for a few days, then it was randomly at 63 one day. Its stopped there again.



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Wow, the COD bundle has 2 stars on Amazon because a lot of people are reporting their digital code doesn't work.



My 8th gen collection

That was a good question.
If SO bundle is out of stock how would it keep on ranking (altought dropping slowly)? It should dissapear one hour after being unavailable.
we need some idea of timeframe for the hourly chartz.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

jlmurph2 said:
steverhcp02 said:
jlmurph2 said:
steverhcp02 said:

You have pretty much summed up and explained what most rational posters have been trying to explain for days. The SO bundle has literally 3 units avilable from a 3rd part seller at the time of my post going for almost $100 above retail value yet it is still "in the top 40"

People seem to think this is a real time sales per hour of the quantity for an entire year condensed to an average of each hour....constantly flowing. The daily updates for the year so far of 2014 have shown us that the Xbox One SKU at 98 has not even sold enough during this spike to even move from 98th position for the year ahead of Command and Conquer Ulimate Edition that is nearly 3 years old.....not aggregate sales but just in 2014.

Movement on the 2014 yearly sellers list will point toward sustained and substantial sales whereas this revolving hourly door does absolutely nothing to project sales. But in an age where many feel compelled to tweet about what ingredients they are puttig in their salad for lunch and people then feel compelled to validate those ingredients with immediate approval we find ourselves in this predicament.

The 2014 list hasn't updated for 3 days

How do you know?

In the Xbox Empire thread we were monitoring Halo MCC's placement on the list. For a while it moved 2-3 places up the list till it stopped at 76 or something for a few days, then it was randomly at 63 one day. Its stopped there again.

So you really have no idea because it was at "76 or something" then at a different number. It could be stopped because it isn't moving relative to sales of other products over the last couple of days. I honestly don't know but I think that argument is pretty weak and not very substantive unless you were tracking all 100 products and saw stagnation across the board. It could very well be true but you don't make a compelling case and to state it so matter of factly I suppose fits right in with the mantra of this thread. Little information lots of conclusions.



steverhcp02 said:
jlmurph2 said:

In the Xbox Empire thread we were monitoring Halo MCC's placement on the list. For a while it moved 2-3 places up the list till it stopped at 76 or something for a few days, then it was randomly at 63 one day. Its stopped there again.

So you really have no idea because it was at "76 or something" then at a different number. It could be stopped because it isn't moving relative to sales of other products over the last couple of days. I honestly don't know but I think that argument is pretty weak and not very substantive unless you were tracking all 100 products and saw stagnation across the board. It could very well be true but you don't make a compelling case and to state it so matter of factly I suppose fits right in with the mantra of this thread. Little information lots of conclusions.


Well if you want a sense of reference Amazon UK does the same thing. It wasn't updated for a week and just now MCC has gone from #53 to #38 for 2014.



jlmurph2 said:
steverhcp02 said:

binary solo said:

It's more that there is a 7 placing gap between Xb one and PS4 at the moment and PS4 is back in the top 20. Pretty sure Xb one was within about 2 or 3 placings at one stage, which was when PS4 was at about position 22 or 23.

What do the hourlies measure? if SO bundle has been sold out for several hours now shouldn't it be gone from the top 100 by now? Or is the hourly best seller list showing sales over a longer time scale than just a moving window of the last few hours? Is it a 24 hr moving window, 48 hr, longer? At least with monthly you know the exact timescale of the sales. I hope the thread will switch to the monhtly list when that finally comes up for November as that gives us a better medium term indication of relative sales. For imstance it will give us a more true indication of the performance of the SO bundle. The bundle burns bright, but it also burns short. So once we get the monthly data coming through it'll be interesting to see its position relative to the CoD and Ass Creed bundles over that longer timescale. And SO bundle relative to PS4, which sells lower on an hourly basis, but as it sells all day every day the cumulative effect should put PS4 ahead of the SO bundle. I expect its limited numbers should mean vanilla Xb one will be ahead of the SO bundle towards the later half of the month.

Ha, didn't notice the price. That'll do it.

You have pretty much summed up and explained what most rational posters have been trying to explain for days. The SO bundle has literally 3 units avilable from a 3rd part seller at the time of my post going for almost $100 above retail value yet it is still "in the top 40"

People seem to think this is a real time sales per hour of the quantity for an entire year condensed to an average of each hour....constantly flowing. The daily updates for the year so far of 2014 have shown us that the Xbox One SKU at 98 has not even sold enough during this spike to even move from 98th position for the year ahead of Command and Conquer Ulimate Edition that is nearly 3 years old.....not aggregate sales but just in 2014.

Movement on the 2014 yearly sellers list will point toward sustained and substantial sales whereas this revolving hourly door does absolutely nothing to project sales. But in an age where many feel compelled to tweet about what ingredients they are puttig in their salad for lunch and people then feel compelled to validate those ingredients with immediate approval we find ourselves in this predicament.

The 2014 list hasn't updated for 3 days

It updates daily. Yesterday the Xbox One was at #98, today it's at #97