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Forums - Sony Discussion - How the Vita's first 2 years should have looked. 70m LT

 

Where would the Vita be at now if this was its first 2 years?

Still a flop at <10m 33 34.74%
 
better but only by a bit 15m 39 41.05%
 
A big success for sony 30m 16 16.84%
 
neck and neck with the 3DS 45m 7 7.37%
 
Total:95
DanneSandin said:
This line up is too far fetched imo. What Sony should have focused on is portablility; price and games. And I'll tell you this; if Nintendo struggled to get decent 3DS sales, so would Sony no matter what they did


The 3DS had no games though for a long while.

Whats particularly far fetched about the list though? Far fetched in that sony wouldn't do it (because they're not smart enough), or far fetched in that it wouldn't be feasible for them to release, fund all those games?

Most of those games are coming from studios who produced a game for sony in that same period, I'm suggesting a lot of them should have been repurposed in terms of what they made. Elderscrolls is pretty much the only big release without a listed studios but as its a port sony could have outsourced it just like Epic Mickey was (sony paid for that), or ''Borderlands 2 late'' sony also ported that. I mean guys sony set up a whole studio to throw money at devs, I think alot of the above only seems far fetched because it was so above and beyond what sony offered but their output in the reality was not far below what I'm proposing.

StarHawk, Unit 13, Resistence Burning Skies, Sly Cooper 4, Vita pets... just a handful of games sony commisioned where the resources were in my opinion wasted completely wasted.



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teigaga said:
DanneSandin said:
This line up is too far fetched imo. What Sony should have focused on is portablility; price and games. And I'll tell you this; if Nintendo struggled to get decent 3DS sales, so would Sony no matter what they did


The 3DS had no games though for a long while.

Whats particularly far fetched about the list though? Far fetched in that sony wouldn't do it (because they're not smart enough), or far fetched in that it wouldn't be feasible for them to release, fund all those games?

Most of those games are coming from studios who produced a game for sony in that same period, I'm suggesting a lot of them should have been repurposed in terms of what they made. Elderscrolls is pretty much the only big release without a listed studios but as its a port sony could have outsourced it just like Epic Mickey was (sony paid for that), or ''Borderlands 2 late'' sony also ported that. I mean guys sony set up a whole studio to throw money at devs, I think alot of the above only seems far fetched because it was so above and beyond what sony offered but their output in the reality was not far below what I'm proposing.

StarHawk, Unit 13, Resistence Burning Skies, Sly Cooper 4, Vita pets... just a handful of games sony commisioned where the resources were in my opinion wasted completely wasted.

Yes, 3DS didn't have a lot of games for quite some time - but some of those games that WERE released sold quite well (I'm thinking Star Fox and Ocarina of Time), while the first game wave for Vita didn't do as well. And I think we have to ask ourselves why that is. Quite a few of the games you listed isn't made with portability in mind, but for home consoles - and going by home the AAA games have faired on Vita doesn't suggest that that's what people wants. Uncharted have down quite good for a handheld title (1-2m?) as have CoD and other AAA games, but when compared to 3DS's best selling games, they don't stand a chance.

And what I mean by far fetched is that Sony wouldn't release/fund all of those games because it would cost them too much, and considering that people don't seem to want to play those kind of games Sony would stop porting them sooner or later anyways...



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teigaga said:
bigtakilla said:
the_dengle said:

30 million is a real stretch. Look at where those sales are coming from, and compare the Vita to its closest competitor.

The 3DS launched almost a full year (about 10 months) before the Vita. It has sold 14 million in NA and 12.5 million in Europe. Optimistically, maybe we could have hoped for the Vita to have reached 10 million in each of those territories by now, but without giving it a GTA (the best-selling game on PSP in both NA & Europe), I'm not too confident your revised lineup would have done the trick.

You did nothing for Japan aside from Gran Turismo. Maybe it would be up to 5 million instead of the 3.25 million it's at now. That pushes it up to 25 million, leaving the ROW to pick up the slack.

You also didn't address any of the non-software-related barriers to the Vita's success, like its $250/$300 launch price, and  its unreasonably expensive memory cards and lack of internal memory.

You can only change so much about a machine before it becomes something completely different, and that's the real solution here -- the Vita's first 2 years could have looked much better if it wasn't the Vita at all.

Yeah, when a handheld cost pretty much the same as a home console it really lures people away. I was going to get a Vita when I first heard about it, it seemed like a decent handheld that got a lot of things for mobile gaming right. But then I heard it was $300+ launch for the 4G version, and another $50 for a memory card before taxes. It was the same price as my 32 gig Wii U! I said no thanks. I'll probably pick one up refurbished in another year or two for $150 for Tales of Hearts. 

A lot of people were pretty shocked when they announced it was 250 because they expected it to be higher and 3DS was selling pretty well (a lot better then the Vita) at the same price considering it had no games outside of SF4 and Zelda OOT. I think the perceptive cost of memory cards is more damaging in a lot of peoples minds then paying near console price for a handheld. 

You'll also remember when the 3DS came out at $250 no one was buying it either, they were pretty much writing it off as a dead handheld as well. It wasn't until it dropped to $200 and a release of some major 1st party titles (along with 3rd party) that it turned its fortunes around. Meanwhile Playstation was sitting on its hands waiting to something to happen with the Vita. The $250 vita also came with no games and a 1GB card while the Nintendo 3DS was starting to get packaged with Luigi's Mansion 2 and had an Ocarina Of Time bundle, had a remake of  Zelda and Star Fox, Kingdom Hearts 3D was being heavily promoted, and had a 2GB storage card. The price point was low enough, the games were flooding in, and there were already bundles early year 2. As far as what else did it have besides Kingdom Hearts, Legend Of Zelda, Star Fox, and Luigi's Mansion. It had Devil Survivor Overclocked, it had Dead Or Alive Dimensions, it had Rayman 3D, it had Ghost Recon, it had Metal Gear Solid 3D Snake Eater announced, and it was backwards compatible. 



DanneSandin said:
teigaga said:
DanneSandin said:
This line up is too far fetched imo. What Sony should have focused on is portablility; price and games. And I'll tell you this; if Nintendo struggled to get decent 3DS sales, so would Sony no matter what they did


The 3DS had no games though for a long while.

Whats particularly far fetched about the list though? Far fetched in that sony wouldn't do it (because they're not smart enough), or far fetched in that it wouldn't be feasible for them to release, fund all those games?

Most of those games are coming from studios who produced a game for sony in that same period, I'm suggesting a lot of them should have been repurposed in terms of what they made. Elderscrolls is pretty much the only big release without a listed studios but as its a port sony could have outsourced it just like Epic Mickey was (sony paid for that), or ''Borderlands 2 late'' sony also ported that. I mean guys sony set up a whole studio to throw money at devs, I think alot of the above only seems far fetched because it was so above and beyond what sony offered but their output in the reality was not far below what I'm proposing.

StarHawk, Unit 13, Resistence Burning Skies, Sly Cooper 4, Vita pets... just a handful of games sony commisioned where the resources were in my opinion wasted completely wasted.

Yes, 3DS didn't have a lot of games for quite some time - but some of those games that WERE released sold quite well (I'm thinking Star Fox and Ocarina of Time), while the first game wave for Vita didn't do as well. And I think we have to ask ourselves why that is. Quite a few of the games you listed isn't made with portability in mind, but for home consoles - and going by home the AAA games have faired on Vita doesn't suggest that that's what people wants. Uncharted have down quite good for a handheld title (1-2m?) as have CoD and other AAA games, but when compared to 3DS's best selling games, they don't stand a chance.

And what I mean by far fetched is that Sony wouldn't release/fund all of those games because it would cost them too much, and considering that people don't seem to want to play those kind of games Sony would stop porting them sooner or later anyways...


Sorry I couldn't help but write a mini essay, I won't dwell on the issue much after this....

A big difference was in quality and appeal of those titles. A portable mario is going to sell more then a portable uncharted without a doubt, but Uncharted has never been about core mechanics. Its about cinematic gameplay and story, exactly why I think it was a bad suite for the Vita and Jak 4 would have been a better investment or God of War. The problem with the insertion that the big games on Vita don't sell that there is virtually no quality ones apart from Uncharted and the one or 2 that were do not have the right appeal

Unit 13- Bland uninspired game ( a small ME3 spinoff would have been far more successfull in the Vitas early days)
Gravity Rush- shallow game but great art and potential- exactly why I think it would have made a good launch title lol, people would have been more forgiving.
AC Liberation- Bad game, lets all be honest.
Call of Duty- Bad game- A straight port would have been novelty enough and actually sold off merit. Sony paid for this shoddy game BTW.
Soul Sacrifice- Niche in style, completely not suited to the the western market either. Note how Toukiden and God eater2 on Vita both outsold SS in Japan.
Killzone Mercinaries- Good game but Vita is pretty much dead on its arrival- As I said in the OP a portable KZ was never a goldmine anyway.

Now we have a bunch of misfires, now add in the fact that a lot of them arrived mid way through software droughts wherein people stopped using their Vita's- Gravity rush, Soul Sacrifice, KZ all had 5months gaps between them and another prior exclusive.... Very poor management from sony, by comparison despite the 3DS's bad start they knew very well what games they needed to get out on the 3DS. Zelda followed by starfox, followed by 3D Mario, followed by mario kart all in time for its first worldwide holiday.

Finance wise what I'm saying is that sony ACTUALLY spent this money within the same period. So its not question of could they afford it but would have lost money on the investment? Just a few comparisons

Star Hawk funed and released on PS3 only to sell 270k (less then most Vita exclusives). I proposed that team supervised by Sony Santimonica should have made  Heavenly Sword II or something else exclusive for Vita. If KZM sold 500k on vita (double starhawk), I think so would a Heavenly Sword Sequel at the very least.


Uncharted Golden Abyss sold 1.3m. I think an exclusive Jak 4 would have sold upwards of that. The collection alone sold 700k physically, and it probably doubled those figures including digital. I really think there was more demand for a new Jak then then there was for a portable uncharted.

Sly cooper thieves in time sold 600k across the Vita and PS3. I think Syphon Filter Vita exclusive would have reach 1m IMO. 

Persona 4 Golden and FFX HD are great evidence that quality JRPGS are in demand on Vita. Both games outsold soul Sacrifice despite only being ports. Again i'm not suggesting sony conjured money out of thin air to produce Dark Cloud 3 (a game with a colt following and tons of potential both in japan and west unlike SS which only had japanese appeal). Im suggesting they made smarter decisions, gauged the space for big RPGS on handhelds and been in communications with devs enough to know that half a dozen MH clones were already on their way to Vita (and sony themselves already had Freedom Wars in developement)

Ratchet and Clank Nexus didn't exactly sell a ton or set the PS3's sales alight. Surely it would have been better utilised on the vita?

God of War Accension. The weakest of all the games in terms of sales (1.9m), still pretty impressive. Even if it didn't reach 2m on the Vita (lets say it done 1.3, the franchise has a great track record on portable), we all know it woud shift a lot of systems. If made for the Vita we would also assume that its budget wouldn't have been as high anyway.

Grand Turismo 6- Typically huge, but this game couldn't even reach the sales of GT on PSP. Whenever we talk financials its important to consider not only the money the game would make itself (I think it would sell close to 1m in Japan alone), but also the hardware it would sell as that is inevitably part of sonys revenue stream and enables even more software sales across the board because a bigger userbase. Check the sales jump this and GOW provided the PS3. Virtually none. Similar to the 360 the PS3 at that point in its life was selling exclusively off 3rd parties and momentum which it developed over the previous 6 years.

Sony could afford to produce Invizibles for pS3 and anothe seperate game for Vita (both flopped), Vita pets (flop), port Epic Mickey (waste of time), port Borderlands 2 (waste of time), port all of their PS3 collections (badly), but yet they can't afford to afford an Edlerscrolls remake or to have secured FFType 0 in the early days when SE were still supporting the PSP? 

I accept that I can't prove any of my presumptions on what would have more and they are just that... presumptions, but a lot of people have said sony simply would not spend this much money. The truth is they did, they just spent it badly.



bunchanumbers said:

I can't imagine it would help. Because the upper end of the device cost like $350 and games for $50 each and a $90 memory stick. Prices like that are beyond unreasonable. Even if they lowered prices like they did the PS3 they would have eaten major losses and it would have been beyond catastrophic.

Sadly I think that the path the device took was the necessary path for Sony's best interest.

The problem with this thinking is that given the price and hardware, you're assuming sony were achieving the maxium sales potential of the system at the time with this line up:


Uncharted launch- feb 2012- Great
Gravity rush- June 2012- Luke warm reception
LBP-september- sept 2012- Great Reception
ACL- Poor Reception Nov 2012
COD- Horrible reception nov 2012
Soul Sacrifice- April 2013- decent reception
Killzone Mercinaries-  september 2013- good reception
Tearaway- 2013- Great reception

Note not just the fact that only 3 of those games over 2 years were considered must have by general consensus, but also the time difference between all of the quality titles. Regardless the its pricing issues, I find it very hard to believe the Vita was selling even close to its potential simply because its software was poor. Take the Wii U for example; it has numerous problems outside of games; poor hardware, poor marketing, too pricey for a secondary console; but the right game (MK8) can double its baseline.



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Sony gave up too early. - And this is the MAIN problem for Sony and Microsoft
No 3rd party support = Bad Sales

While Nintendo will and can support their consoles with just first party games.

I think Sony needs to expand their support, and first party games much more. (Not just those anime games)

And it looks like their not going to even lower the prices.



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