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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XONE sales by Dec 31, 2014 (Quick Basic Math Edition)

 

What do you think will definetely happen?

PS4 [20M] & XONE [10M] by Dec 31, 2014 9 4.92%
 
PS4 [20M] & XONE [9M] by Dec 31, 2014 15 8.20%
 
PS4 [20M] & XONE [8M] by Dec 31, 2014 34 18.58%
 
PS4 [19M] & XONE [10M] by Dec 31, 2014 6 3.28%
 
PS4 [19M] & XONE [9M] by Dec 31, 2014 16 8.74%
 
PS4 [19M] & XONE [8M] by Dec 31, 2014 5 2.73%
 
PS4 [18M] & XONE [10M] by Dec 31, 2014 21 11.48%
 
PS4 [18M] & XONE [9M] by Dec 31, 2014 31 16.94%
 
PS4 [18M] & XONE [8M] by Dec 31, 2014 29 15.85%
 
None of the above. 17 9.29%
 
Total:183
Jabbamk1 on 26 October 2014
freedquaker said:
Jabbamk1 said:
freedquaker said:
Jabbamk1 said:

This is a prediciton I made back in January 2014 after we heard about Q4 2013 numbers.

It's been pretty on point so far. And just to clarify, I am talking about shipped numbers here. Hence the 3.9m for X1 in Q4 2013. For PS4 I took the 4.2m number and started with that as we don't have a shipped figure for the PS4. 


I am comparing this with my predictions : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187926

Obviously you are in line with PS4 but over estimating for XB1. We all know XB1 has sold around 6 million by the end of 3rd quarter, and you are over estimating by 2 million (33% above!)

As you'll see my estimates put XB1 beween 8-9 million by the year end, more in lines with the current actual sales now (around 6 million).


I'm estimating shipped figures. Not sold through. 

It's estimated that Xbox One has shipped ~7.4m so I'm close with the 8 million.

I'd put PS4 at 12.5m shipped like it says above. 

My bad, it seems reasonable then. Also note that tracking the shipment with some error margin may be a good idea as well but in the early years, it may lead to misleading figures due to skewed ratios. For example 6 vs 12 sold looks very bad while 8 vs 12.5 shipped looks much better for XB1


I know what you mean. 


But when I made this prediction I assumed that Sony and MS would announce shipments in their quarterly reports. So I used shipments because we'd get a solid number unlike a sell through estimate which can never be 100% accurate and would always have incomplete data. 

MS did give us official shipped data through to Q1 this CY. But then they combined 360/one. And Sony have only given us sell through and never shipped numbers haha. Guess It makes my prediciton hard to track now!



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Qwark on 26 October 2014

Sales are not direct math especially during holidays in 2011 360 was 1.5 million behind PS3 on yearly sales the holidays almost made that hole gap fade away. Xbone 10 million due to pricecut before black Friday. PS4 17.5 million due to the lack of a killer exclusive or a real Mcc counter. U 10.5 million due to smash 11 if smash bundle will be announced for black Friday and Christmas.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Imnus on 27 October 2014
Qwark said:

Sales are not direct math especially during holidays in 2011 360 was 1.5 million behind PS3 on yearly sales the holidays almost made that hole gap fade away. Xbone 10 million due to pricecut before black Friday. PS4 17.5 million due to the lack of a killer exclusive or a real Mcc counter. U 10.5 million due to smash 11 if smash bundle will be announced for black Friday and Christmas.


Yeah, but that what's because the 360 sold twice as the PS3 in NA where the holiday push is strongest. That's not the case this time around, while the XONE is gonna get a bigger growth because a higher proportion of its sales are from NA, the PS4 is still gonna sell more on NA and of course WW, there won't be any gap shortening this holidays.



Madword on 27 October 2014
Imnus said:
Qwark said:

Sales are not direct math especially during holidays in 2011 360 was 1.5 million behind PS3 on yearly sales the holidays almost made that hole gap fade away. Xbone 10 million due to pricecut before black Friday. PS4 17.5 million due to the lack of a killer exclusive or a real Mcc counter. U 10.5 million due to smash 11 if smash bundle will be announced for black Friday and Christmas.


Yeah, but that what's because the 360 sold twice as the PS3 in NA where the holiday push is strongest. That's not the case this time around, while the XONE is gonna get a bigger growth because a higher proportion of its sales are from NA, the PS4 is still gonna sell more on NA and of course WW, there won't be any gap shortening this holidays.

I wonder if this is why MS are trying so hard this Xmas, they think they can close the 1m gap in USA perhaps, just over Xmas... i dont see it happening, but they dont seem to be bothered about the rest of the world which is very strange indeed.



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