freedquaker said:
Jabbamk1 said:
freedquaker said:
Jabbamk1 said:
This is a prediciton I made back in January 2014 after we heard about Q4 2013 numbers.
It's been pretty on point so far. And just to clarify, I am talking about shipped numbers here. Hence the 3.9m for X1 in Q4 2013. For PS4 I took the 4.2m number and started with that as we don't have a shipped figure for the PS4.
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I am comparing this with my predictions : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187926
Obviously you are in line with PS4 but over estimating for XB1. We all know XB1 has sold around 6 million by the end of 3rd quarter, and you are over estimating by 2 million (33% above!)
As you'll see my estimates put XB1 beween 8-9 million by the year end, more in lines with the current actual sales now (around 6 million).
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I'm estimating shipped figures. Not sold through.
It's estimated that Xbox One has shipped ~7.4m so I'm close with the 8 million.
I'd put PS4 at 12.5m shipped like it says above.
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My bad, it seems reasonable then. Also note that tracking the shipment with some error margin may be a good idea as well but in the early years, it may lead to misleading figures due to skewed ratios. For example 6 vs 12 sold looks very bad while 8 vs 12.5 shipped looks much better for XB1
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I know what you mean.
But when I made this prediction I assumed that Sony and MS would announce shipments in their quarterly reports. So I used shipments because we'd get a solid number unlike a sell through estimate which can never be 100% accurate and would always have incomplete data.
MS did give us official shipped data through to Q1 this CY. But then they combined 360/one. And Sony have only given us sell through and never shipped numbers haha. Guess It makes my prediciton hard to track now!
