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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Mafia Round 70 - Smash Brothers - Wahahaha! Wario Wins! (And Mafia Too I Guess...)

Well as far as I'm concerned between a miller and a role that doesn't go anywhere and is a cop only in name, miller seems less bastardy. I'm going to assume the least amount of bastardness I can while still making sense of things. Hence I think Radish is town, but only because of the moderator slip-up confirmation combined with the confirmations from multiple people now. Clyde is town because no one has counterclaimed the Master Hand claim, and the way that role seems to work in incredibly unfair to town if it's scum. Khan is a normal town cop because having one role that screws with scans seems less ridiculous than the moderator telling him he has a role when he's essentially vanilla town that gets random fake scan results.

That leaves us with Stefl, Astro, and Imp. I'm going to give an analysis for each in a bit.



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First Astro. Not much to say here, because he hasn't done much. His excuse is that he's a princess. That explains the lack of any reports from him or others of night activity, but it doesn't explain his rather passive approach to the days. He thinks the princess effect only triggers from lynches, so there's no reason to be so cautious. The first day was where most of his worst logic came out, but he admitted to it later and agreed with my logic on Khan, and since that day he's been pretty reasonable. So I don't know that I feel he's as scummy as I did that first day, at least enough that I'm willing to ignore him for today. I'm pretty sure at least one of Stefl or Imp are scum, so we can afford to leave Astro alone for now. It's a bit risky to go for him first.



Next Imp. Imp is interesting. I believe his role, as he'd have no reason to target spurge otherwise. Spurge didn't need protection, but I saw protection, and clearly spurge didn't die and wasn't manipulated, or he'd have been unable to successfully track Imp. So Imp seems to be a doctor, and he certainly believes his doctor protection doubles as a psych to an SK, or he wouldn't have targeted a scummy looking townie, whether he was town or scum. So his psych role checks out. Now maybe the psych was put into a game with no SK role as a balance, since there are other protective roles and this  would potentially keep the doctor from being as effective. But that'd be a pretty bastard move to lie like that, and again, we've got Mario confirmed, Mario games feature poison mushrooms, and Nickles died of food poisoning according to the flavor. Same balancing by making a protective role not target people who need protecting most, while also being significantly less bastardy.

However, his role being true doesn't make him not scum. Scum can have doctors, and it would be evidence that there is or was an SK, as none of us remaining have killing roles. He was logical for most of the game, as far as I could see, but with this day he seems to be trying to sabotage the follow-the-cop scenario we have. He's also been less active than usual. Now I know in past games the doctor hasn't always been as active, and ended up looking like scum like with Cone in the Fire Emblem game, but I can't shake the feeling that Imp seems different this time around. Maybe I'm just mad that he's going against my logic, or maybe he's scum.



Finally Stefl. I really don't know what to think with Stefl. I've been trusting him mostly because Khan is still alive and his story hasn't had any contradictions that I saw, and he helped us find Yoshiya. However, the main reason I think spurge was lying is that stefl supposedly protected him from manipulation, and unless Khan doesn't actually target who he says he targets and just gets random reads instead, spurge can't be right about not tracking Khan anywhere that night. Further more, I've seen Khan move twice, and stefl himself says Khan moved last night. Which means spurge must by lying right? But what if he wasn't lying? I assumed he was because it was the only way the stories added up, but while it doesn't make sense for a miller to not say he's a miller, it makes even less sense for spurge to lie as town when he's about to be lynched. If stefl lied about his role, spurge could be telling the truth. In fact, there's even a way he could not be a miller. Hear me out.

Yoshiya said he "bussed" spurge with Astro, but that turned out to be a slip that led to us correctly guessing that Yoshiya was actually a redirector before he actually flipped as such. So it seems to me that Yoshiya at least tried to redirect spurge to astro. If Astro didn't move, then there you go, spurge is telling the truth, at least from his perspective as someone who was redirected to track Astro and not Khan. But this has a lot of implications.

If Astro is a princess, he wouldn't have moved, obviously. I don't think Astro had claimed as of Night 2, so scum wouldn't have known that, however. It could be a wild guess to throw off a town read, or if Astro is scum, it could have been very purposeful. Having Astro do nothing that night (or perhaps he couldn't do anything anyway, like a daytalk enabler?) would leave spurge to cast doubt on Khan. Yoshiya gets sacrificed, Stefl's role is believed, then the next night Stefl makes Khan think he's scanning spurge when he's actually scanning Stefl, so spurge gets lynched, but that puts suspicion on Khan, so scum can just sit back while town either lynches their own cop or stops trusting their own cop's scans. One scum sacrifice for two town investigative roles. If this is more or less how it went, then there you have your explanation for spurge's apparent hidden miller role and lying when he was about to be killed. But as Khan said, that would leave scum with seemingly two of the same role, right? Well, not necessarily.

Now Stefl says his role is a combination of a lighting rod that only affects actions against a particular target, and that it also functions as a watcher, and also as a sort of bodyguard. That's pretty crazy. I've believed it all this time because there weren't any glaring contradictions, his voting record was good, and Khan wasn't dead. But there's a much simpler explanation. What if he's not a redirector, or a crazy lightning-rod-watcher-bodyguard, but rather a DEFLECTOR. The difference between a deflector and a redirector is that a redirector picks two targets and the first target has all his night actions redirected to a second target, while a deflector picks two targets and all actions that anyone takes against the first target are deflected away to the second target. Sound familiar? Having another manipulative role like that would mean scum would be less hesitant to sacrifice one of them.

 

Now I realize that's a lot of speculation. I'm just trying to make sense of things. Hidden miller roles, cops that aren't actually cops, town lying at the hanman's noose, I just want a more logical explanation. Now one way both spurge AND Stefl could be telling the truth is if a redirector targeting Stefl's lightingrod-watcher-bodyguard target caused a paradox and prof solved it by allowing Yoshiya's redirection to go through while also allowing Stefl to still watch spurge. This seems really arbitrary however, so I'm not sure how likely it is. Another possibility is again, that spurge really was crazy enough to lie when he was about to be lynched, and either was a hidden miller, or really that fucking crazy as to not say he was a miller. Given Stefl's great voting record, the riskiness of leaving Khan alive, and lack of any other glaring contradictions, I'm still not 100% here.



Final verdict:

All scum are in the three that I mentioned. At least one of Stefl or Imp is scum. They broke away from the plan last night, and I don't like that, so I'm pretty sure at least one of them is scum, possibly both, if Stefl is indeed a deflector and is covering for Imp. At most, there are two scum left, and if one of Stefl and Imp are town, then Astro is your final scum.



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Then imp or Astrogamer.

I still like (as in, dislike) imp.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Straw-poll: who should we vote for, imp or astrogamer? (in light of my comment above)



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

HylianSwordsman said:

Next Imp. Imp is interesting. I believe his role, as he'd have no reason to target spurge otherwise. Spurge didn't need protection, but I saw protection, and clearly spurge didn't die and wasn't manipulated, or he'd have been unable to successfully track Imp. So Imp seems to be a doctor, and he certainly believes his doctor protection doubles as a psych to an SK, or he wouldn't have targeted a scummy looking townie, whether he was town or scum. So his psych role checks out. Now maybe the psych was put into a game with no SK role as a balance, since there are other protective roles and this  would potentially keep the doctor from being as effective. But that'd be a pretty bastard move to lie like that, and again, we've got Mario confirmed, Mario games feature poison mushrooms, and Nickles died of food poisoning according to the flavor. Same balancing by making a protective role not target people who need protecting most, while also being significantly less bastardy.

However, his role being true doesn't make him not scum. Scum can have doctors, and it would be evidence that there is or was an SK, as none of us remaining have killing roles. He was logical for most of the game, as far as I could see, but with this day he seems to be trying to sabotage the follow-the-cop scenario we have. He's also been less active than usual. Now I know in past games the doctor hasn't always been as active, and ended up looking like scum like with Cone in the Fire Emblem game, but I can't shake the feeling that Imp seems different this time around. Maybe I'm just mad that he's going against my logic, or maybe he's scum.

I'm not sabotageing any strategy, I am just pointing out how unlikely it is for Spurge to have been a miller. If that is going against what you call your logic, then fine. As long as no one can give a reasonable explanation to why we would have a hidden miller I am going to go with what the mafia wiki has to say about that kind of role.

I find that so unreasonable that I would be more inclined to believe that Spurge and Khan have both been manipulated by scum. The obvious answer then would be Stefl as prof has inadvertently confirmed that stefl can manipulate night actions. That would also explain why stefl claims to have redirected khans scan of me last Night. It would serve scum well to build suspicion on both the doc and the cop.

Anyway, if Stefl and I are covering for each other, why would he undermine Khans scan on me? Would make more sense to just let a clean scan on me sit out there uncontested no?





Mr Khan said:
Then imp or Astrogamer.

I still like (as in, dislike) imp.


Is there any real analysis behind your insistance that myself, hylian and astro are the only possible scum players left? So far I don't think I've heard much more than some voting pattern mumblings from you. It shouldn't be necessary to point out how useless voting pattern analysis would be in a game like this.

I can see how Clyde's claimed role would confirm him as town, and Radish is confirmed to me at least by prof. Stefl though, we seem to have a possible explanation to how spurge would play so irrational and why your scan seemed inaccurate. Why do you think he can not be scum?



impertinence said:
Mr Khan said:
Then imp or Astrogamer.

I still like (as in, dislike) imp.


Is there any real analysis behind your insistance that myself, hylian and astro are the only possible scum players left? So far I don't think I've heard much more than some voting pattern mumblings from you. It shouldn't be necessary to point out how useless voting pattern analysis would be in a game like this.

I can see how Clyde's claimed role would confirm him as town, and Radish is confirmed to me at least by prof. Stefl though, we seem to have a possible explanation to how spurge would play so irrational and why your scan seemed inaccurate. Why do you think he can not be scum?

I agree, it's a bit weird considering there is only real confirmation on Stefl is the fact he confirmed Radish. While it suggests he's town along with his general play,  it isn't impossible for him to be scum. I can't recall his claimed night actions but I do recall now he claimed he some sort of bodyguard with cop elements. The fact he hasn't died yet is a bit suspicous with such a role.  He's has a good chance to be town in my eyes but outright dismissing the possibility shouldn't be done with this few players



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