ioi, may I ask you a question, now that you're here?

Am I correct in guessing that mediacreate numbers is something which is used as in-data to your algorithm for estimating Japanese sales? If that's the case, then would it be fair to assume that mediacreate numbers is given more weight by the Vgchartz algorithm than official sales claims by Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo?

IF that's the case, I would have to ask the reason why.

If Sony, or Microsoft, or Nintendo claim they "sold through X million units to consumers", and that claim is not true, then they are lying to shareholders. Lying to shareholders about the performance of a company is a crime.

See: https://www.google.se/search?q=sec+lying+to+shareholders

So, disregarding what the actual Vgchartz algorithm looks like, it seems like official claims by Sony, MS and Nintendo of units sold-through, ought to be some of the most reliable sales information available out there?

ioi Do not forget some Sony fans are pretty apathetic, or support the site in regards to  your estimates being reasonably close. A lot of these guys probably never even attended college, nor took a single statistics, or research college level course.

Actually, chances are that the Xbox One is undertracked too.  Considering China's substantial grey market.   Unfortunately, there is no way to know what the Xbox One is really doing until Microsoft makes an official  announcement.  Its not Sony is lying, or that ioi has an agenda; Its simply that people misunderstand the difference between reporting actual sales and trying to track sales.  An extrapolation is not an indication of sales. It is an educated theory. I created a program for a local municipality that tracked incurred costs for risk based on the historical data I had to work with.   At the end of the day, they had to payments based on what happened, not what I projected.  I was only there to prepare with educated projections

I never said ioi's numbers are perfect that would be impossible. I also do not take every random dude on the internet as some expert. Most of the experts on game sales probably pay for his full data.

I will never understand for the life of me, why people get so upset over FREE sales ESTIMATIONS on a website.

Yes Slade. This is what I was going to say.

To elaborate, ioi has been more than reasonable with people's requests and with the accuracy of numbers. Even in this thread he has been. And yet, console preferences obscure people's opinions and create threads like this time after time. Do you want the numbers or not? They may not be 100% accurate, but that's not important because I'm not assuming they are. 

I'm not here to defend the numbers; odds are the PS4 is slightly under and Wii U slightly over, for example. But that's fine because they're close enough and it's a free service, and the errors have been explaind clear as day for people to see, but for some reason it isn't enough. If you cn do it better, than fine. Set up your own site and create your own numbers, and I'll come on there and complain with your inaccuracy and see how you like it.

For now, ioi has been more than reasonable and the numbers are accurate enough. That's fine with me, why can it not be fine with everyone else?

Ok, but you're saying here that an official statement by either MS Sony or Nintendo about sell-through can be expected to be the best figure they have, offered in good faith. If that holds true, and only if that holds true, they're not breaking any laws. If they offer inexact numbers where they have any reason whatsoever to believe they performed worse than what they claimed, then that is in fact a punishable offence. Any claims of sold number of units is easily accessible to shareholders, and liable to affect the stock price, and thus any willful lie a punishable offence.

Agreed?

This is the case for both a quarterly financial report AND for when i.e. Sony opts to make an official statement that "10 million units of PS4 were sold through to consumers"?

Agreed?

So, then, acknowledging this, is there any reason whatsoever to consider e.g. mediacreate numbers to be more reliable indata for the Vgchartz algorithm than official MS/Sony/Nintendo sales numbers? Do you feel that mediacreate have access to more exact information about sell through in Japan than Sony does?

Okay fair enought, you got a point.

Eh, its harder to track the consoles who sell in higher volumes. Marketing deals also make it harder because it inflates one part of the data pool but not the other (ie a Walmart BF deal).

Thats said I dont feel too good about this weeks numbers, it makes no sense for the XB1 and the PS4 to be so close in sales in NA.