There are a few problems with the poll.

#1 just because it supposedly cost one hundred million to make Halo 4 last gen does not mean you can make 20 AAA games on next gen with the same budget. Development costs will be higher now.

#2 you can make a handful of AAA games and then none of them pan out to be anything close to Minecraft. Why is Sony making Uncharted 4 instead of using that money to instead fun a few unknown titles? Because Uncharted is a proven commodity and they know it's worth the investment.

#3 if this rumor turns out to be true then Microsoft would clearly have much bigger plans for the IP other than Xbox. So just because they have 2 billion to hypothetically throw at Minecraft, doesn't mean if that deal doesn't happen, they suddenly have 2 billion to hypothetically throw at unknown games and studios.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

AAA games can be made for less than 100m so to those saying you wouldnt be able to get 20, I'd say you would be able to get more than 20.

Anyway, I'd take 2 new AAA games over minecraft which if I were an xbox fan, I know I would be able to play on xbox anyway.

effectively the options are

1) get minecraft (as a third party game) + ~20 other AAA xbox exclusives

2) get minecraft (possibly as an exclusive) + enjoy whatever MS plans to do with minecraft.

I think if you include marketing costs, its about $100m. 

That's not how this works...

You can't be serious to think that if Microsoft will pay these 2 billion that they could instead make 20 more AAA games? Where would these games come from? Every gaming studio is already working, it's not as if they sit in an office and wait to get more money to make a new game...

Opening new studios would also cost more as many think since it's not an investment for a few years and after the money is gone everything will be like before...

Not to forget that Microsoft won't pay that money just for a game, they would also pay it for all the merchandising stuff, increasing the amount of people who will use Microsoft accounts, to sell some Windows OS and so on... so that there is no "if we don't spend 2 billion for this studio we have 2 billion for other games"

I just hope some guys will never open an own business and think they can calculate like they do in forums. 

I would get Minecraft, pull it from all non-MS platforms and convert it into an ad-supported subscription based pay to win game with tons of DLC and micro-transactions for $5 a month, to get back all the the money invested within the first two years.

How fitting that the takeover rumor started September 9, day of Destiny release.

I remember so many people honestly shocked to learn that Destiny cost $500 million to make and market, and many said it is impossible to earn that back. (although that is the expenditure plan for the next 10 years).

And now even that game (which is turning out to be a huge success) pales in comparison to Minecraft, which is obviously worth 4 times the amount.

New games always

Wow look at the cost for shenmue for example.
i wonder if these chart are aligned for inflation or not. It always bugs me when they say something like movie x is themost successful moneywise but don't calculate the inflation.

Way to kill the game, i'm glad you're not in charge! 

Don't forget about all the Minecraft spinoffs that will be released, and fail.