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Forums - Sales - Upcoming Nintendo Games: Lifetime sales predictions

tak13 said:
Teeqoz said:
tak13 said:
hyrule warriors 2-2.5m, bayonetta 1-2m ,captain toad 2.5-3m and smash 8.5-9.5m


o_O You sure 'bout that?


sure?....i wouldn t say it:Phyrule warriors will be a hit in usa(a little decrease 1.5-2.5),sales in japan doesnt mean anything...it s another proof that zelda is popular in usa ,(wind waker hd is a proof too)..Also i took into account all amazon sites ;)...bayonetta gets hyped ,but as you can see i dont have it so high...(1m-2m) it s obvious that captain toad will break the barrier of million....its a super mario 3d world spin-off  and toad is a character from mario franchise(yoshi 's games are big successes)and cheap.Personally i dont understand anyone who predict under 1m,when zombi u hit 800k,Monster hunter 3  800k-1m?(it s way undertracked here ,capcom has announced that it  was a smash hit and most of the sales came from digital copies...which arent being tracked anywhere....) As for smas bros,i m certain (a little increane 8.5-10m) it sold 7m on gamecube...12.24 m on wii,that game is huge and it could have the outstanding attach rate of mario kart 8

Captain Toad won't come close to touching 3 million in its lifetime. It's a 3D World spin-off, and 3D World has done roughly 2.2 million so far...

Also, I don't expect Hyrule Warriors to perform close to 2 million by the same logic. It's a spin-off, and a lot of Zelda fans are actually waiting for Zelda U.

I'll expect to add 1 to each of those games just to be sure ;)



 
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I honestly think Bayonetta 2 will sell about 2.5 million. Remember you are getting 2 games for 1 here. Also their is such hype for this game I already checked out many Msg boards and people are strongly considering getting a Wii U just for Bayonetta alone. I wasn't going to get this game but I'm sold on the 2 for 1 deal.

Hyrule Warriors will sell because it's Zelda and it's not a Kiddie remake. It looks like an epic Zelda game. I say it'll sell 1.5 million

Captain Toad is tricky, I won't buy it, it's too kiddie, but kids might, so I'd say it'll sell 500k - 1 Mill.

Smash will sell 8 million and counting.



Teeqoz said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
[JP] Fatal Frame 5: 60k+
[JP] Bayonetta 2: 50k+
[JP] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: 3000k+
[JP] Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire: 3500k+
[JP]Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: 80k+
[JP]Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 1000k+

Now, for worldwide sales:
Hyrule Warriors: 500k+
Bayonetta 2: 500k+ (Sorry, Operation Platinum)
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: 10000k+
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 5000k+
Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire: 10000k+
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: 500k+
[Wii]Just Dance 5: 500k+
[WiiU]Just Dance 5: 100k+


Explanation for the bolded please?

Do note that I put pluses beside the games because these are my minimum estimates.

Even Melee sold at least a million in Japan, and the 3DS version could be the tease that pushes people to buy the Wii U version. However, the 3DS version could also prove to be "good enough", and knowing that handhelds dominate in Japan, the Wii U version will suffer.

Minimum 1 million, guaranteed. You see how well MK8 performed there, right?



 
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TheWPCTraveler said:
Teeqoz said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
[JP] Fatal Frame 5: 60k+
[JP] Bayonetta 2: 50k+
[JP] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: 3000k+
[JP] Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire: 3500k+
[JP]Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: 80k+
[JP]Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 1000k+

Now, for worldwide sales:
Hyrule Warriors: 500k+
Bayonetta 2: 500k+ (Sorry, Operation Platinum)
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: 10000k+
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 5000k+
Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire: 10000k+
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: 500k+
[Wii]Just Dance 5: 500k+
[WiiU]Just Dance 5: 100k+


Explanation for the bolded please?

Do note that I put pluses beside the games because these are my minimum estimates.

Even Melee sold at least a million in Japan, and the 3DS version could be the tease that pushes people to buy the Wii U version. However, the 3DS version could also prove to be "good enough", and knowing that handhelds dominate in Japan, the Wii U version will suffer.

Minimum 1 million, guaranteed. You see how well MK8 performed there, right?


It's just that Wii U ltd in JP is only ~1,8 million, so the attach rate will have to be insane. In Japans case I think the 3DS version will steal a lot of sales because it's in japan, and it's a handheld.



Teeqoz said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
Teeqoz said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
[JP] Fatal Frame 5: 60k+
[JP] Bayonetta 2: 50k+
[JP] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: 3000k+
[JP] Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire: 3500k+
[JP]Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: 80k+
[JP]Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 1000k+

Now, for worldwide sales:
Hyrule Warriors: 500k+
Bayonetta 2: 500k+ (Sorry, Operation Platinum)
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: 10000k+
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 5000k+
Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire: 10000k+
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: 500k+
[Wii]Just Dance 5: 500k+
[WiiU]Just Dance 5: 100k+


Explanation for the bolded please?

Do note that I put pluses beside the games because these are my minimum estimates.

Even Melee sold at least a million in Japan, and the 3DS version could be the tease that pushes people to buy the Wii U version. However, the 3DS version could also prove to be "good enough", and knowing that handhelds dominate in Japan, the Wii U version will suffer.

Minimum 1 million, guaranteed. You see how well MK8 performed there, right?


It's just that Wii U ltd in JP is only ~1,8 million, so the attach rate will have to be insane. In Japans case I think the 3DS version will steal a lot of sales because it's in japan, and it's a handheld.

Wii U has a baseline of 9k/week in Japan, so if that holds, you'll get at least a million more Wii U sales, so you'll get to at least 3 million by the end of this generation. Add to that the small barrage of games that are already coming out, and you have yourself a higher baseline. Besides, aren't consoles more receptive to fighting games than handhelds?



 
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Vena said:
NintendoSupporter<3 said:
Lol at the people think Captain Toad will sell millionz


Toad should have higher than normal sales because:

(a.) Its cheaper than normal games by 20$.

(b.) It already has exposure from SM3DW from which it was requested as a spin off.

(c.) Legs.

Will it top a million? Not sure, I think it will be close.


There was no demand stop lying xD



TheWPCTraveler said:
tak13 said:


sure?....i wouldn t say it:Phyrule warriors will be a hit in usa(a little decrease 1.5-2.5),sales in japan doesnt mean anything...it s another proof that zelda is popular in usa ,(wind waker hd is a proof too)..Also i took into account all amazon sites ;)...bayonetta gets hyped ,but as you can see i dont have it so high,plus it might lure the buyers of its predecessor..(1m-2m) it s obvious that captain toad will break the barrier of million....its a super mario 3d world spin-off  and toad is a character from mario franchise(yoshi 's games are big successes)and cheap.Personally i dont understand anyone who predict under 1m,when zombi u hit 800k,Monster hunter 3  800k-1m?(it s way undertracked here ,capcom has announced that it  was a smash hit and most of the sales came from digital copies...which arent being tracked anywhere....) As for smas bros,i m certain (a little increane 8.5-10m) it sold 7m on gamecube...12.24 m on wii,that game is huge and it could have the outstanding attach rate of mario kart 8

Captain Toad won't come close to touching 3 million in its lifetime. It's a 3D World spin-off, and 3D World has done roughly 2.2 million so far...

Also, I don't expect Hyrule Warriors to perform close to 2 million by the same logic. It's a spin-off, and a lot of Zelda fans are actually waiting for Zelda U.

I'll expect to add 1 to each of those games just to be sure ;)

wpc...wii u has bigger installbase now,also for me the fact that is a spin off of 3dworld is an advantage:Plet me repeat yoshi's games  have a great success why toad's not? :Phyrule warriors will hit 1m ,soon...in usa, double the wind waker hd numbers:P



tak13 said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
tak13 said:


sure?....i wouldn t say it:Phyrule warriors will be a hit in usa(a little decrease 1.5-2.5),sales in japan doesnt mean anything...it s another proof that zelda is popular in usa ,(wind waker hd is a proof too)..Also i took into account all amazon sites ;)...bayonetta gets hyped ,but as you can see i dont have it so high,plus it might lure the buyers of its predecessor..(1m-2m) it s obvious that captain toad will break the barrier of million....its a super mario 3d world spin-off  and toad is a character from mario franchise(yoshi 's games are big successes)and cheap.Personally i dont understand anyone who predict under 1m,when zombi u hit 800k,Monster hunter 3  800k-1m?(it s way undertracked here ,capcom has announced that it  was a smash hit and most of the sales came from digital copies...which arent being tracked anywhere....) As for smas bros,i m certain (a little increane 8.5-10m) it sold 7m on gamecube...12.24 m on wii,that game is huge and it could have the outstanding attach rate of mario kart 8

Captain Toad won't come close to touching 3 million in its lifetime. It's a 3D World spin-off, and 3D World has done roughly 2.2 million so far...

Also, I don't expect Hyrule Warriors to perform close to 2 million by the same logic. It's a spin-off, and a lot of Zelda fans are actually waiting for Zelda U.

I'll expect to add 1 to each of those games just to be sure ;)

wpc...wii u has bigger installbase now,also for me the fact that is a spin off of 3dworld is an advantage:Plet me repeat yoshi's games  have a great success why toad's not? :Phyrule warriors will hit 1m ,soon...in usa, double the wind waker hd numbers:P

Okay, fine. But, do you really expect one in five Wii U owners to have Treasure tracker by the end of this gen?



 
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TheWPCTraveler said:
tak13 said:

wpc...wii u has bigger installbase now,also for me the fact that is a spin off of 3dworld is an advantage:Plet me repeat yoshi's games  have a great success why toad's not? :Phyrule warriors will hit 1m ,in usa soon, double the wind waker hd numbers:P

Okay, fine. But, do you really expect one in five Wii U owners to have Treasure tracker by the end of this gen?


it depends, bro...probably our wii u  lt sales expectation differ...:pso if don t know your prediction i will not answer :P



tak13 said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
tak13 said:

wpc...wii u has bigger installbase now,also for me the fact that is a spin off of 3dworld is an advantage:Plet me repeat yoshi's games  have a great success why toad's not? :Phyrule warriors will hit 1m ,in usa soon, double the wind waker hd numbers:P

Okay, fine. But, do you really expect one in five Wii U owners to have Treasure tracker by the end of this gen?


it depends, bro...probably our wii u  lt sales expectation differ...:pso if don t know your prediction i will not answer :P

My prediction is here! http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6655963

I expect it to sell close to a million, like Hyrule Warriors. After all, it does look fun to play, so I'm going to pick up a copy eventually.



 
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