One thing that the graph doesn't take into account is the fact that the Wii is supply constrained while the 360 and PS3 are not. That means that the Wii sold through at enormous numbers during the slowest point in the year (January-April) while the 360 and PS3 still have room to grow during the upcoming months (and they will). Things will improve for both the PS3 and 360 (IMO, particularly the 360) beginning in two weeks with the start of summer and the launch of Forza. They will continue to improve until December. Meanwhile, the Wii will probably ramp its production, but by how much? Production is a finicky thing and Nintendo has to be careful to not commit millions of dollars to overramping. Signing a contract for a factory to begin producing a console for you isn't free, you know. And you have to commit to a certain amount or time length, meaning Nintendo is likely to try to squeeze as much out of their current factories instead, leading to a smaller growth in production. In short... I think the graph is inaccurate because the Wii is virtually capped out while the PS3 and 360 suffered through the slow months and will begin to attract more buyers. Which is why I still think that the Wii won't pass the 360 until December at the earliest and possibly as late as March.

Thanks mrstickball!

I have a lot of respect for you and TheSource also!

I disagree with is... we cant see the future and the PS3 is starting to get games. Just the downloadable game Calling All Cars should be enough reason to buy a PS3 but with Resistance Motorstorm and a ton of other AAA titles being released should give a huge reason to but one.

So, with that March prediction what you're saying is that the 360 will be 20 million or more by March 2008.

I mean if the Wii doesn't sell more just because it's capped, as you put it, you'd expect they can at least produce what they said they'd sell in their financial report (which, by the way, was already confirmed not to be the production limit), right?

Unless Wii sales drop from current levels, it will catch the Xbox this year. Maybe sooner, maybe latter, but it will. And it will always sell more in December, as no matter what they produce, they will surely stockpile some consoles for the holidays.

Your numbers on top are all the exact same numbers that I am using. The numbers for the rest of the "future" weeks changes week by week averaging closer together until they reach the same number (that takes about 20 weeks and depends on the fluctuations of the first four weeks).

The others number I dont have any really good data on. I have to go off the changes from the home page. Hope ioi can get some good data up for the others soon, then I will plug those in to improve this chart.

If anybody has any historical numbers and dates for the others (like how it has changed on the home page) I would love to see it to maybe help tweek this thing a little bit. To be honest I dont know how accurate the are, it makes it hard when you have corrections like the 360 had earlier this week (numbers dropped by about 100,000). But hopefully they are in the ballpark. 

What, you mean that game with the kiddie graphics? Sorry, just couldn't resist.

I mean, it looks great! And, to me, that's precisely because of those graphics, not in spite of them. Still wouldn't pay $610 for it, though... but for $10, it's a steal!

Edit: Ahh RolStoppable beat me to it.

You are correct if Nintendo doesnt up production they can not increase like the 360/PS3. But I have a feeling that they have and we are starting to see that upped production, and hopefully they can continue to increase it because they need to start saving up units for their big releases and holidays. 

March is an outside figure. My actual prediction was January (in another thread).

There's always the outside chance that Wii sales will stall slightly once demand is met. Unlikely, I know. But it's possible. PS3 and 360 sales are a virtual lock to increase, though.

cjpier, just wanted to point out that your projection for this week is pretty close, but slightly off for all three consoles.  You may want to adjust the figures accordingly.  For my graph, I keep a version constantly adjusted, while other I have left untouched to see how close I was to reality for the year in February.

Japan/Others numbers haven't been put in for this week yet.