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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: WII U Will Still be Ahead of XBOX One in 2017

ikki5 on 03 September 2014
Seece said:
ikki5 said:
Seece said:
Yet another one of these threads that is going to look super silly in a matter of weeks.

WiiU won't be ahead ever again come this holiday.


didn't people say this about the Xone when Titan Fall came.... and then when the kinectless Xboxe came? Sorry but people are not buying the Xbox for the multiplats, they are going to the PS4 for that so really, any major releases will have little affect on the Xones sales as most people can get the majority of the Xones games on the PS4. Really, people who want an Xbox would primarily want it for Halo and Halo only.


If you want to believe that, more power to you. Just not the case tho. Multiplat sales on XB1 prove you wrong. http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=&platform=XOne&genre=&minSales=0&results=200


and yet, the PS4 sales numbers speak another thing. yeah, game selss on Xone but games usually sell better on the PS4 better. That's why the Xones sales are still crap and then get their 1-2 week spike during a game release.



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XanderXT on 03 September 2014

Well, I wish you luck for the coming days, friend.



Scizor_99 on 03 September 2014
Seece said:
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:

It's funny because I don't anticipate massive numbers for XB1 this holiday. Certainly under Xbox 360's average.


I'm confused, then. For what you anticipated (namely, for the Xbox One to achieve a substantial lead over the Wii U by the end of the the year) to come to pass, either one or a combination of the following two things would have to happen:

(1) The Wii U would have to flop hard.  

(2) The Xbox One would have to pull very large numbers.

I don't deny that, given what has happened so far, it's extremely likely that the Xbox One will outsell the Wii U at some point in the future. However, I don't think it's the necessary conclusion that it will easily pass it in the next four months. I believe I have additional explanation as to my opinion in another post as well.

Neither of those things have to happen. WiiU at 3m shipped and XB1 at 4.5m shipped gives XB1 a sizeable lead. That's also well under 360's average holiday Q so not huge.  (2.5m shipped to Americas, 2m outside)

So, what's to say that NIntendo simply haven't shipped a lot of the consoles they intend to sell this holiday? And what's to say the Xbox Ones sell through by the year's end?



Seece on 03 September 2014
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:

It's funny because I don't anticipate massive numbers for XB1 this holiday. Certainly under Xbox 360's average.


I'm confused, then. For what you anticipated (namely, for the Xbox One to achieve a substantial lead over the Wii U by the end of the the year) to come to pass, either one or a combination of the following two things would have to happen:

(1) The Wii U would have to flop hard.  

(2) The Xbox One would have to pull very large numbers.

I don't deny that, given what has happened so far, it's extremely likely that the Xbox One will outsell the Wii U at some point in the future. However, I don't think it's the necessary conclusion that it will easily pass it in the next four months. I believe I have additional explanation as to my opinion in another post as well.

Neither of those things have to happen. WiiU at 3m shipped and XB1 at 4.5m shipped gives XB1 a sizeable lead. That's also well under 360's average holiday Q so not huge.  (2.5m shipped to Americas, 2m outside)

So, what's to say that NIntendo simply haven't shipped a lot of the consoles they intend to sell this holiday? And what's to say the Xbox Ones sell through by the year's end?

Well, given there are only 20k on shelves/transit in Europe/US end of June, I very much doubt it.



 

eva01beserk on 03 September 2014
Seece said:
eva01beserk said:
Seece said:

Ugh, this hurts my head. So because they shipped that for Gamecube (which was a different console, in a different landscape, with different rivals, and different software) WiiU could do the same?

WiiU hasn't matched any Gamecube shipments so far AFAIK?

Arent you the one who keeps saying that the 360 did great in all holidays and so the x1 has to do it to? now my head hurts. What he says makes more sense since the wii u is facing the same hardships as the gamecupe, but for the x1 it dosent make sense since the 360 was dominating for a little while, then was at least on par with the ps3, then got below the ps3, but it was aclose third unlike this time.

 

I've never said that, given I'm always against the myth of Nintendo having great holidays.

All consoles do great in the holidays for pretty obvious reasons, it's the holidays.

You where debating that with me, so ofcourse I remember. You even showed me a time the 360 sold over 4m when halo and gears launched on a holiday and told me since halo MMC is coming it might has to do well also. Im not going to look for that conversation, But I remember how you kepted saying that you have history on your side. Then you said since the wii u did bad last holiday it has to do bad this holiday, and all you could not even atribute the bad sales with the launch of the ps4/x1 wich was all people could talk about at the time.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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Scizor_99 on 03 September 2014
Seece said:
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:

It's funny because I don't anticipate massive numbers for XB1 this holiday. Certainly under Xbox 360's average.


I'm confused, then. For what you anticipated (namely, for the Xbox One to achieve a substantial lead over the Wii U by the end of the the year) to come to pass, either one or a combination of the following two things would have to happen:

(1) The Wii U would have to flop hard.  

(2) The Xbox One would have to pull very large numbers.

I don't deny that, given what has happened so far, it's extremely likely that the Xbox One will outsell the Wii U at some point in the future. However, I don't think it's the necessary conclusion that it will easily pass it in the next four months. I believe I have additional explanation as to my opinion in another post as well.

Neither of those things have to happen. WiiU at 3m shipped and XB1 at 4.5m shipped gives XB1 a sizeable lead. That's also well under 360's average holiday Q so not huge.  (2.5m shipped to Americas, 2m outside)

So, what's to say that NIntendo simply haven't shipped a lot of the consoles they intend to sell this holiday? And what's to say the Xbox Ones sell through by the year's end?

Well, given there are only 20k on shelves/transit in Europe/US end of June, I very much doubt it.

Sorry, but can you clarify for me exactly what shipped figures you're giving me. Are they quarterly shipped figures? Annual shipped figures?



Seece on 03 September 2014
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:

Well, given there are only 20k on shelves/transit in Europe/US end of June, I very much doubt it.

Sorry, but can you clarify for me exactly what shipped figures you're giving me. Are they quarterly shipped figures? Annual shipped figures?

Why would it be annually? I'm talking LTD end of June compared to what VGC has end of June



 

logisticalnightmare on 03 September 2014
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:
logisticalnightmare said:
eva01beserk said:
logisticalnightmare said

Tell me oh wise one, how many wii us are in Canada? Mexico? Puerto Rico? Brazil? South Africa? India? Spain? Romania? Iceland? Greenland? Ireland? Russia? Oh, you have no information on any of those? You must be talking out of your ass then. Fact is, we get no information on numbers except for the major players. That leaves ALOT of room for error

Are you really asking me that, but not applying it to yours or seece's arguments? Well this just prooves that its pointless to try and make you see a diferent point of view. Do you really think his estimate is better and is not applicable to those errors you mentioned? Tell me from where did seece get those numbers? Did he survey the major markets himself? Is seece able to see mistakes that multy billion dollar companies cant? If so they should hire him right now. 

Im not the one making assuptions here, just denying others wich is much easy. Seece has no way to get that information as well and the number he uses that are available are the same numbers ioi uses to update the site. So there really is no reason I should take his word over the sites word now, is it? Its fine if you do, but be ready for critizisim when you go agaist the most trusted information.


It's pointless talking to you. There is no reliable information out there besides Nintendo's which supports the wii u is massively overtracked. What don't you get? Why do you act like vgc doesn't update numbers or is never wrong? Are you forgetting how far off they were with ps4?

Indeed. It's quite simple and straightforward. You can prove WiiU is overtracked by their shipment figures end of June. You can't do the same for XB1.


Why do you act like the only logical conclusion is that the Xbox One will pull massive numbers this holiday, and that everyone who disagrees with you is definitively wrong? Regardless of overtracking, there still remains a massive gap between the sales figures of the two consoles (which I assume you don't deny). You assert that this gap will not only disappear, but the Xbox One will pull a large lead, all by the end of this year. What evidence do you really have to back up this claim? PS4 has stolen the spotlight for every multiplat released after the launch period  Xbox One's boosts form new releases were negligible compared to what was expected. Even the $100 price cut had little effect. Why do you think that market interest will suddenly rebound dramatically after having been stagnant since Titanfall? Pre-orders for Xbox One exclusives are not that significant and there's still the possibility that many may be coming from current owners. I think it's quite likely that the PS4 will once again take away significant marketshare from the Xbox One, leaving it much closer to the Wii U than you might think. 


Why do you act like he said anything of the sort?



eva01beserk on 03 September 2014
Seece said:
logisticalnightmare said:
eva01beserk said:

Are you really asking me that, but not applying it to yours or seece's arguments? Well this just prooves that its pointless to try and make you see a diferent point of view. Do you really think his estimate is better and is not applicable to those errors you mentioned? Tell me from where did seece get those numbers? Did he survey the major markets himself? Is seece able to see mistakes that multy billion dollar companies cant? If so they should hire him right now. 

Im not the one making assuptions here, just denying others wich is much easy. Seece has no way to get that information as well and the number he uses that are available are the same numbers ioi uses to update the site. So there really is no reason I should take his word over the sites word now, is it? Its fine if you do, but be ready for critizisim when you go agaist the most trusted information.


It's pointless talking to you. There is no reliable information out there besides Nintendo's which supports the wii u is massively overtracked. What don't you get? Why do you act like vgc doesn't update numbers or is never wrong? Are you forgetting how far off they were with ps4?

Indeed. It's quite simple and straightforward. You can prove WiiU is overtracked by their shipment figures end of June. You can't do the same for XB1.

@logisticalnightmare

Yea, I'm a little stuborn, I get that from my father. And no, it dosent support it, it only sugest that it could be overtracked. Its like a guy with a big buldge in his pants, it suggest he has a huge di**, but he could just be stuffing his pants. Nothing you say is 100% fact, just assuptions, while I never claimed what I said is 100%, I say is a possibility.

@Seece

You can proove that it might be oertracked. Wich is true and I belive it is. That is 300k overtracked as you claime, is just you hoping it is. If it was so simpe and straight foward, then ioi would have adjusted the numbers like he did a few days ago when tak prooved the x1 was overtracke in the US, prooved by npd, the most trusted site wich is basicly the law.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Scizor_99 on 03 September 2014
Seece said:
Scizor_99 said:
Seece said:

Well, given there are only 20k on shelves/transit in Europe/US end of June, I very much doubt it.

Sorry, but can you clarify for me exactly what shipped figures you're giving me. Are they quarterly shipped figures? Annual shipped figures?

Why would it be annually? I'm talking LTD end of June compared to what VGC has end of June

You mean these numbers?

Official: XOne - 5M shipped by March 30, 2014 + part of 1.1M shipped in the April-June quarter (XOne +X360)

        Wii U - 6.68M shipped by June 30, 2014

VGChartz: XOne - ~4.6M sold by June 28, 2014; ~5M sold by June 28, 2014 

    Wii U - ~6.6M sold by June 28, 2014; ~7.1M sold by August 23, 2014