I'm guessing 2 million, at the most.

The reason? MGS games sold poorly (in comparison to the PS2 offerings) on the PSP, and the PSP when MGS:PO came out had a higher userbase than the PS3 will have.

 DMC4 will probably sell 2 million on the ps3 alone.  MGS games outsold DMC games 3:1 on the ps2.

 You cannot be serious! 

I will eat my hat if it doesn't do 2M WW in 6 weeks. 

@ Garcian

You're not comparing PSP software sales to PS3 are you... I hope not. Cause that makes no sense.

So you just predicted that the MGS4 will sell less than COD4 PS3, Resistance, and Motorstorm lifetime, even being bundled, even coming out with a larger install base, even actually being a huge hit in Japan as well as in other territories, something that wasn't true of the other 3 titles...

Haha im sorry, but I dont know whats going on with the PS3 haters of late. Usually your are crisp and at least realistic. Even if MGS4 is only DECENT it will reach 2,000,000 within 2 months. It looks as if MGS4 will be EPIC. Since the PS3 attach rates for games like DMC4, AC, and COD4 have been higher than the 360's OUTSIDE of Japan. how is it that the PS3's biggest hit to date with online multiplayer will sell less than other titles that were new IP's and had mediocre receptions? I was under the impression that anyone who has a PS3 could by MGS4, not those past fans of the game.

Not counting GTA, MGS4 is the biggest game WW since Halo 3. If your going to try and downplay a PS3 title atleast be realistic. Jesus.

So many stupid ignorant posts it boggles the mind.

Its METAL GEAR SOLID one of the most beloved franchises in gaming its from Kojima whos one of the most respected people in the industry. The controls have been made more user friendly to make it appeal to more people then ever before.

It has massive hype behind it and its justified..

Resistance and COd4 did around + or - 2.5 mill and some of you think MGS4 wont do more then that ? At one point Resistance had 40% attach rate, and that was a game that did not appeal to Japan very much.

MGS has world wide appeal.

Point 1: Ratchet and Clank: Up your Arsenal doesn't have Japanese numbers

Point 3: Ratchet and Clank: Size Matters has sold more in Japan from launch.

Point 4: Up your Arsenel is outselling Future tools in America from launch

Point 5: PSP games don't sell... it's silly to compare PSP games to console games.

In otherwords... your graph is severly flawed.

When you consdier that Up your Arsenal = only US sales...

and Futures total sales = barely over Arsenal's US only...

What do you think of it's sales in comparison now.

Note: It's a good idea to check your statistics before you post faulty graphs.  Thanks. 

@pakiden

"(b) It is on a console that isn't doing well. For a long time, the Metal Gear Solid Series started and was always on the Playstation consoles. I know the name Metal Gear were on the Nintendo consoles but the MGS were on Sony platforms. Anyways, they have always been on consoles that had a momentum of success. The PS1 had a sense of being favored by the public, MGS1 was in it and BAM! Instant success. MGS2, though considered one of the games that may have been overhyped, was an instant success because it was on the PS2, the platform that succeeded the PS1. MGS4, however, is on a console that overall is not doing so well. What I'm trying to say is that it isn't a game that can move consoles. It may move a few hundred thousand more in the first month but once that happens, not many more new gamers are going to get the game. Those who have the console will mostly get the game and thats about it"

Wrong! MGS was not such a success because it was on PS. It was successful because the franchise itself is one of gaming's greatest achievments. It would of sold well on any console.

Bringing up MPO is a low blow. It cant be compared with the other installments for obvious reasons(downscaled hand held game).

That said. This is Kojima's last Metal Gear Solid right? (Or at least that's what he said at some point, i thought it was supposed to be the last one ever but i guess Konami won't let it die.)

That should boost it's numbers enough as he's likely went all out on this one not holding back. It should be the PS3's best selling game until GT5 comes out. (GTA 4 is a contender but i'm not sure how much 360 will take away from it.)

konami