From a purely theoritical standpoint a handheld system (like the DS lite) can sell at a ratio of 1:1 for every person in Japan; from a more realistic viewpoint, if you assume that Nintendo broke through a barrier into new gaming markets it is plausable that they could achieve 1.5 to 2 times the number of units sold as the PS2.

Hypothetically speaking, Nintendo could furthur push demand by creating an even smaller DS (or in some other way better DS) and encouraging people to upgrade; by simply cutting the screensize by 5% or 10% in each direction, removing the GBA slot, and other minor modifications Nintendo could (probably) produce a DS Micro which was noticeably smaller than the DS Lite.

I would think that since the USA market is more infatuated with consoles than Japan, and roughly 1/4 people in the USA owned either PS2,Xbox,GC, then Japan's videogame market could reach at least that proportion.  Japan has lower birth rates than the USA, so I think comparing Gameboy sales to DS sales is a good starting point.  The population in 1990 was roughly 125 million, today it is estimated at 130 million.  You have total Gameboy sales at 31.3 million, which is 1/4 of the Japanese population.  DS is expanding the demographic of videogames, which means it may get to 1/3 or even 4/10 of the current Japanese population.  40% of 130 million is 52 million, which I see as an absolute limit.  I think 39-43 million is pretty realistic...

The appeal of the DS has expanded the market substantially. Past consoles have largely ignored women and seniors. Nintendo has made a deliberate attempt to target these other groups. These other groups probably account for 75% the overall population. So really, the limits aren't known at this point.

I think 2009. This year, demand is just now becoming huge in America and Europe, so Nintendo has to spread out allocations of hardware. I think 2008 will see one last ramp up in production, to meet US, Europe and Japanese demand, right as they peak. Then in 2009, when demand slows to 2007 or 2006 levels, Nintendo will ship the majority of units to Japan, to easy the supply issue. By this time, I think USA and Europe combined sales will be back to 600,000 or 800,000 per month.

Depends on when the games stop coming, if it ever starts to slow they can push out another pokemon to get the wheels turning again

It's safe to say another Pokemon game will hit the DS. I'm sure Animal Crossing on the Wii will also connect with the DS somehow, and that's going to push both Wii and DS numbers way up. I don't see the supply outweighing the demand until at least 2009. Nintendo is really focusing on getting their Wii numbers up right now. The DS will continue to sell hot in Japan until Christmas this year, and well into 2008. It could start to dwindle near fall 2008, but then Christmas will kick in and we all know how that works.

I think the DS is not only going to expand the market even more, but it will also force most PSP owners ( in Japan specially) to purchase a DS. Check the list of upcoming RPGs, and the ones the DS already has. Upcoming: Archaic Sealed Heat ( Mistwalker), FF Tactics, FFIV, FF:CC, DQIX (Will probably break the 5 million barrier in Japan thanks to multiplayer), a mysterious Bioware game, the possibilty of a Blue Dragon spinoff ( Which will probably sell more than BD1 and BD2 combined) and the new KH game that Nomura hinted like a week ago ( KH would sell FF like numbers if it focused on Nintendo platforms, which have the biggest younger and female audience). At this rate, will probably see one of the FFXIII series on DS.

Im kind of wondering where the ceiling is also, but so far, this year the DS is about 900k units ahead of LAST years record breaking pace. Did something liek what 22m last year or something right? And its pacing AHEAD of that. Nintendo said in their interview they are anticipating the ceiling to be somewhere near and thats why they lowered their projects for the calender year through March of 08 but it appears they are way wrong. DQ9 is going to propel the little white wonder into the atmosphere. No idea how they plan to ship enough handhelds for that.

Im not sure it will ever stop. Sales will no doubt drop, but they may stablise between the 50k-80k mark. I think the DS will become like the iPod in Japan - an accessory that everyone will always own, and will become more and more integrated into daily life. With breakages, new models, new colours, kids coming into the "I am old enough to own a DS" age, it may well go on forever. The real key is what Nintendo's long-term plan for the platform is - updated models, digital distribution, integration with music (as a player), integration with a phone, etc. And whether Sony is willing to rip the DS off completely (including carts? memstick?) to work their way back into the market.

No sooner than 2011. John Lucas