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Forums - Sales - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

overman1 on 19 August 2014
Phronesis said:
People must remember the time when Xbox One said they sold 5 million units, when later it was specified that this number was shipped to stores. That's why you can't have a single source.

I don't know VGChartz methods so well but I disagree with people saying the data is wrong when they clearly don't understand too.

Btw, that's why VGChartz can't be the only source of sales too. Even if the estimates are good, it doesn't hurt to see other sites.


Funny you say that because the Xbox one numbers are sitting at 5 million units despite the fact that Microsof hasnt released a sell-through statement since I believe april. Also isnt the Xbox one amost always overtracked on this site (evident from June)



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joeorc on 19 August 2014

Though we should also take into account that unlike VGC, Sony has an agenda. So even if they have the better resources, it doesn't make them more reliable. It might be that they're willingly or even unconsciously incorporating bias into their estimations.

Tweaking some variables to round up the numbers. Tweaking variables is always a good thing to include certain trends or some anomalies. But you can be sure that whatever kind of tweaking Sony is doing will always be beneficial to their numbers. So even if the numbers are within reason and if they have a lot of resources to base their extrapolation on, there will still be a margin of error that is more likely tilted to less units when it's coming from the manufacturer.


Once Again bringing up Ethics about this is not going to do you any favors in an Argument. Saying that VGchartz would have no Agenda?

You know that how? Remember if you bring in Ethics that opens it up to Question's about, hey you think that Astroturfing would not be an agenda? How do you know that Vgchartz could not be Astroturfing for the highest bidder every month? You don't thats why trying to bring in Ethics into this about Vgchartz being more trustworthy than any of the big three will not get you anywhere but in an argument. That would hurt more than help the perception of a site. 

You have to be very careful playing the Ethics card, it can get you into quite a bit of trouble.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Dr.Henry_Killinger on 19 August 2014
vivster said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

None whatsoever.

Pay attention, the crux of the argument, and why your doubt has no basis is that ioi does not have more resources to make estimates than Sony does. Those 3rd party sources not only track smaller areas then the entire world like VGC or Sony ala US, Japan, or Europe, but they also have more dedicated resources.

You can extrapolate that I'm saying VGC has worse tracking because they have less money than Sony. I'm saying their have less resources to base their estimates on.

NPD will have better estimates then Sony does regarding the USA only, they will have more access to USA data then Sony does.

But the vast majority of VGC data is publically avaliable data that Sony readilly has access to, a long with retailer shipping orders, and private tracking firms that ioi doesn't have.

The issue here is that Sony's numbers aren't wrong, the problem here is that ioi doesn't know yet where to place the discrepancy, which he will. Any doubt should be evaporated because to suggest that A. a tracking algorithm based off the sales of last gen has been wrong and consistently wrong is now right this one time is more likely then B. Sony commiting PR suicide to make unnecessary Public PR claim that could be disatrous to them if wrong.

Its essentially saying, Sony is either insane vs VGC undertracked again.

=_=

Though we should also take into account that unlike VGC, Sony has an agenda. So even if they have the better resources, it doesn't make them more reliable. It might be that they're willingly or even unconsciously incorporating bias into their estimations.

Tweaking some variables to round up the numbers. Tweaking variables is always a good thing to include certain trends or some anomalies. But you can be sure that whatever kind of tweaking Sony is doing will always be beneficial to their numbers. So even if the numbers are within reason and if they have a lot of resources to base their extrapolation on, there will still be a margin of error that is more likely tilted to less units when it's coming from the manufacturer.

Yes, but it would be pure insanity for them to make and then even clarify an objective PR statement. 10mill+ sold through cannot be tweaked, spun, or bent.

The suggestion that Sony would burn all of its postive PR on a statement with minor benefit is silly. Regadless of what one thinks of the company. If their was any doubt to be had, they would have said nothing. 

To "Tweak the variables" in this point it the race wouldn't be shooting themselves in the foot, it would be equivalent of putting a live grenade in their pocket.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Dr.Henry_Killinger on 19 August 2014
Phronesis said:
People must remember the time when Xbox One said they sold 5 million units, when later it was specified that this number was shipped to stores. That's why you can't have a single source.

I don't know VGChartz methods so well but I disagree with people saying the data is wrong when they clearly don't understand too.

Btw, that's why VGChartz can't be the only source of sales too. Even if the estimates are good, it doesn't hurt to see other sites.

please provide that link.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Phronesis on 19 August 2014

@overman1

The way you talk... Are you implying this site is trying to undertrack PlayStation and overtrack Xbox? Is that even logical since PlayStation is way ahead?

I'm sure they don't give two shits about brands. They sell this data to these companies as well.

I'm not 100% that people complaints are just emotional responses. The arguments here are conjectures and invalid since they don't really understand the site mechanics and are more like 'WELL I BELIEVE IN SONY MORE THAN I BELIEVE IN YOU'. ÓH, the drama!

I was always certain that the estimates were "wrong" because is not hard to see a publisher saying that the game sold X million and the number is really discrepant with VGChartz. But some companies don't even say these things, so we couldn't possibly have idea if not for their work so I'm okay with that.



3DS, Wii, PSP, Vita, PS2, PS3, PS4 & Steam.

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overman1 on 19 August 2014
Phronesis said:

@overman1

The way you talk... Are you implying this site is trying to undertrack PlayStation and overtrack Xbox? Is that even logical since PlayStation is way ahead?

I'm sure they don't give two shits about brands. They sell this data to these companies as well.

I'm not 100% that people complaints are just emotional responses. The arguments here are conjectures and invalid since they don't really understand the site mechanics and are more like 'WELL I BELIEVE IN SONY MORE THAN I BELIEVE IN YOU'. ÓH, the drama!

I was always certain that the estimates were "wrong" because is not hard to see a publisher saying that the game sold X million and the number is really discrepant with VGChartz. But some companies don't even say these things, so we couldn't possibly have idea if not for their work so I'm okay with that.

if I am lying you can always discredit me...If I am wrong I would apologize immediately and retrack my statement. I am not afraid to be wrong

seems to me like you are the only one getting emotional about this....

all I see here is some sensible banter. 



DonFerrari on 19 August 2014
Phronesis said:

@overman1

The way you talk... Are you implying this site is trying to undertrack PlayStation and overtrack Xbox? Is that even logical since PlayStation is way ahead?

I'm sure they don't give two shits about brands. They sell this data to these companies as well.

I'm not 100% that people complaints are just emotional responses. The arguments here are conjectures and invalid since they don't really understand the site mechanics and are more like 'WELL I BELIEVE IN SONY MORE THAN I BELIEVE IN YOU'. ÓH, the drama!

I was always certain that the estimates were "wrong" because is not hard to see a publisher saying that the game sold X million and the number is really discrepant with VGChartz. But some companies don't even say these things, so we couldn't possibly have idea if not for their work so I'm okay with that.

Quite bad you questioning others knowledge of the site when most of the users here discussing this have 5 or more years and round 1000k+ posts... So they would know that...

And regarding MS 5M, they were ambiguous and tending to shipped... sony said sould through and then said to customer and then said "sitting at their houses", how is that shipped?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Phronesis on 19 August 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Phronesis said:
People must remember the time when Xbox One said they sold 5 million units, when later it was specified that this number was shipped to stores. That's why you can't have a single source.

I don't know VGChartz methods so well but I disagree with people saying the data is wrong when they clearly don't understand too.

Btw, that's why VGChartz can't be the only source of sales too. Even if the estimates are good, it doesn't hurt to see other sites.

please provide that link.


Oh man... It was so long ago that I barely remember, but Microsoft was unclear about their numbers when they mentioned 5 million Xbox One, when later their clarified it was 5 million shipped, which means we didn't know how much was actually sold. http://news.xbox.com/2014/04/xbox-one-march-npd



3DS, Wii, PSP, Vita, PS2, PS3, PS4 & Steam.

Dr.Henry_Killinger on 19 August 2014
Phronesis said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Phronesis said:
People must remember the time when Xbox One said they sold 5 million units, when later it was specified that this number was shipped to stores. That's why you can't have a single source.

I don't know VGChartz methods so well but I disagree with people saying the data is wrong when they clearly don't understand too.

Btw, that's why VGChartz can't be the only source of sales too. Even if the estimates are good, it doesn't hurt to see other sites.

please provide that link.


Oh man... It was so long ago that I barely remember, but Microsoft was unclear about their numbers when they mentioned 5 million Xbox One, when later their clarified it was 5 million shipped, which means we didn't know how much was actually sold. http://news.xbox.com/2014/04/xbox-one-march-npd

Exactly, MS clarified it was shipped numbers, just like Sony has clarified these are sold numbers.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

joeorc on 19 August 2014

  • Basically, until we can get a regional breakdown of Sony's 10m estimate (which I have asked for) and can compare like-with-like against our regional data, we don't know where and to what degree adjustments are necessary.

So are you saying Sony is giving you a break down of sold through sales data /region and you are waiting for the release? If So do you get a break down from All three /Region sale through data from Microsoft and Nintendo also, and have all three sent you this data before?



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.