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Forums - Sony - My "John Lucas" prediction for the PlayStation 3!!

I think it'll be into March/April next year before the PS3 is in front, it seems to be on a steady rise already without major software to move it.
I think the most interesting question is; how will PS3 weekly sales look after the release of this years most majorly anticipated games?
I myself fully believe that it'll do a solid 250-300k a week after august, with much more near and during hoildays, and then pick up the same pace after new years, or perhaps even increasing again.



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too much nitty gritty stuff to be a good JL prediction. he would rather walk in, drop a number (60 million, end of 08) and stroll off.

then whoomp, site explodes.



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DMeisterJ said:
I lol'd.

This was a joke. I kinda thought that everyone would kind of see that. lol. That's why I put JLs name in the title. Everyone knows I think he's overrated, I thought it'd be obvious to see that this wasn't true. As many can see, my math didn't add up. lol.

I'm on my mobile so I can't post the "it's a trap" pic...

 I call shenanigans....but that's ok....just know now that you can't come to us at the end of the year if this comes to pass and say "I told you so."



super_etecoon said:
DMeisterJ said:
I lol'd.

This was a joke. I kinda thought that everyone would kind of see that. lol. That's why I put JLs name in the title. Everyone knows I think he's overrated, I thought it'd be obvious to see that this wasn't true. As many can see, my math didn't add up. lol.

I'm on my mobile so I can't post the "it's a trap" pic...

 I call shenanigans....but that's ok....just know now that you can't come to us at the end of the year if this comes to pass and say "I told you so."


No shenanigans.  Look at my signature...  I have the 360 ahead of the PS3 at the end of the year. 



DMeisterJ said:
super_etecoon said:
DMeisterJ said:
I lol'd.

This was a joke. I kinda thought that everyone would kind of see that. lol. That's why I put JLs name in the title. Everyone knows I think he's overrated, I thought it'd be obvious to see that this wasn't true. As many can see, my math didn't add up. lol.

I'm on my mobile so I can't post the "it's a trap" pic...

I call shenanigans....but that's ok....just know now that you can't come to us at the end of the year if this comes to pass and say "I told you so."


No shenanigans. Look at my signature... I have the 360 ahead of the PS3 at the end of the year.


 No you don't....you have these huge 3 million unit windows that your JL prediction conveniently fits in...why don't you try shortening that margin of error and make a solid prediction?



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super_etecoon said:
DMeisterJ said:
super_etecoon said:
DMeisterJ said:
I lol'd.

This was a joke. I kinda thought that everyone would kind of see that. lol. That's why I put JLs name in the title. Everyone knows I think he's overrated, I thought it'd be obvious to see that this wasn't true. As many can see, my math didn't add up. lol.

I'm on my mobile so I can't post the "it's a trap" pic...

I call shenanigans....but that's ok....just know now that you can't come to us at the end of the year if this comes to pass and say "I told you so."


No shenanigans. Look at my signature... I have the 360 ahead of the PS3 at the end of the year.


 No you don't....you have these huge 3 million unit windows that your JL prediction conveniently fits in...why don't you try shortening that margin of error and make a solid prediction?


I think that it's far too early to make a solid prediction as to the exact number of million a console will sell, especially when ten months remain in the year.  My "JL" prediction only conveniently fits in if the PS3 does as good as my highest prediction, and XBOX 360 does as low as my lowest prediction, which probably won't happen.



DMeisterJ said:
...

I think that it's far too early to make a solid prediction as to the exact number of million a console will sell, especially when ten months remain in the year. My "JL" prediction only conveniently fits in if the PS3 does as good as my highest prediction, and XBOX 360 does as low as my lowest prediction, which probably won't happen.


 So when do you think is a good time to narrow down those predictions?  October?  And are you going to stay within those paramaters or adjust depending upon the new data?



I'll keep the numbers in my sig. I did the same thing last year, I predicted in the early summer months, and kept it there throughout the year, but I will narrow it down, but it will be within the parameters I've already set.

Probably around sept/oct, it will be narrowed down.



7 Million is a huge number to make up ... if you assume standard boosts at the holiday season the PS3 would have to average a 90,000 unit lead per week over the XBox 360 outside of the holiday season in order to pass the XBox 360 by January 1st 2009. Being that the PS3 is falling short of this total, and will continue to fall short of this number for the rest of Q1 it is likely that they would need to outsell the XBox 360 by over 100,000 units from Q2 through Q4 inorder to meet this goal; on top of this it is very likely that the XBox 360 will see further price reductions, so the PS3 may have to boost sales from its current position by 125,000 (or more) per week inorder to maintain the necessary lead.

In other words its not going to happen ...

A much more realistic estimate would have the PS3 passing the XBox 360 between March 31st and September 31st 2009.



DMeisterJ said:
I'll keep the numbers in my sig. I did the same thing last year, I predicted in the early summer months, and kept it there throughout the year, but I will narrow it down, but it will be within the parameters I've already set.

Probably around sept/oct, it will be narrowed down.

2008 Year End Totals:  Wii - 36-40 million XBOX 360 - 22-24 million PS3 - 21-23 million

Proof that OkeyDokey is a lesbian!

DMeisterJ - Trying hard not to be a fanboy

 

Signature added for posterity.