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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2014 End Sales Estimates, more convincing than ever

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Previous success does not equate to current success. Guess what I am saying is that though we can get an idea of monthly sales based on past history, the boost the 360 got last time around won't mean it will boost the XBO in the same kind of %/numbers. Because they are new different products.



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Landguy said:

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

 

The yearly surge isn't a characteristic for MS consoles. Holidays have more impact on the US. As the 360 was the dominant console there, it would pick most of the boost for itself. EU has weaker Holidays and Japan has almost zero effect. This year, PS4 and X1 are 50/50 there so both will have that going for them.



History has proven to not be repeatig itself guys at all this gen. I would not fall for this mental tendency and assume a much greater increase in X1 sales over PS4 sales this holiday. For one, the 360 was always $ 100 cheaper or more in America all those years in America. Without this major advantage this time, it is impossible to give certainty to any assumption the X1 will jump so much this holiday.



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torok said:

 

The yearly surge isn't a characteristic for MS consoles. Holidays have more impact on the US. As the 360 was the dominant console there, it would pick most of the boost for itself. EU has weaker Holidays and Japan has almost zero effect. This year, PS4 and X1 are 50/50 there so both will have that going for them.


Nope, PS4 is taking 63% of the NA market according to VG.

Ndp shows 61.7 share for PS4  



You aren't including Nintendo so I don't think using the term "market share" is accurate.



ShyGuy322 said:
You aren't including Nintendo so I don't think using the term "market share" is accurate.


thread is not including wiiu, but if ud like.

Going by ndp for 2014

PS4 53.45 %
X1 33.07
wiiu 13.4.6



BeElite said:
ShyGuy322 said:
You aren't including Nintendo so I don't think using the term "market share" is accurate.


thread is not including wiiu, but if ud like.

Going by ndp for 2014

PS4 53.45 %
X1 33.07
wiiu 13.4.6

After some persistent demand, here you go, lol...

 

Cumulative Market Share for all consoles in 2014

PS4 : Up from 34.3% to 42.6%

XB1 : Up from 23.9% to 24.3%

WiiU : Down from 41.9% to 33.1%

 

Annual Market Share for all consoles in 2014


PS4 : flat around 58.5%

XB1 : down from 34.0% to 25.6%

WiiU : up from 10% to 16%

 

Expected Trend in 2014 based on Current Data


PS4 : Expected to increase from 42.6 towards 58.5%

XB1 : Expected to stabilize around 25%

WiiU : Expected to decrease towards 20% range



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

BeElite said:


Nope, PS4 is taking 63% of the NA market according to VG.

Ndp shows 61.7 share for PS4  


Yes, you are correct. NDP adjustments really did this for PS4. In this case, we can expect a higher boost for PS4 than for X1.