And then it beats that method too^^

Actually I do not have a real prediction for it. I'll just wait and see how well it will do. So when I say that it will be quite a feat, I'm not saying that I didn't expect it but that I like that it got that far.

I haven't done the numbers but at that moment in time 17m looked very out of reach and 15m feasible. 16 would be a good middleground. Everything above is bonus.

And yes, I'm aware that all I just said sounds like backpaddling as if I try to damage control a flawed prediction^^ But I really don't have a stake in the PS4 sales so I think I will be pleasantly surprised by anything above 15.

I do however have a stake in X1 but I'm fairly certain that I will win that bet so I'm not worried much about sales these holidays.

Fair enough. 16 millioon is a good achievement for sure, but at this point above 16 million shouldn't be a "pleasent surprise". Back in June you could have said it would be a pleasent suprise. But when something is reasonably expected, as 16 million is now it should really not come as a surprise if it actually happens.

There is a Xb one holiday sales thread? That would be interesting to look at because I'm having a harder time getting a sense of where I think Xb one will land. There are more unknown quantities with that I think. There are things that could make Xb one sell very well, or they could have very little effect. And with XB one we don;t know if MS is going to do things with price. With PS4 things are far more predictable IMO.

My bet was 8.5 million ww minimum at the end of the year. I was very confident in X1 sales from the beginning. I'm still not convinced that X1 has no chance of taking US.

If it does less than this I will begin to lose hope but I will not give up until I see Halo 5 sales^^

Honestly, not really. I don't think they're going to sell THAT many PS4's in the next couple months.

1. PS4 has probably reached 12.3 - 12.5 million by now.

2. Consoles sell 2 /3 of their yearly sales in holiday season.

3. PS4 still has the momentum and will be carried over to holiday season. It will be huge. And dont forget black friday.

4. GTA V and Farcry 4 PS4 bundle will push it further.

5. There is a very good chance that PS4 will cross 17 million number in this year.

I'm not convinced that the PS4 will be able to reach 17 million by the end of the year. People here are over exaggerating the PS4's actual demand like it's the next coming of the PS2 but some results from NPD say otherwise ...

At the best case scenario I can only see PS4 being just above 16 million at the end of the year.

I predicted it will be over 18 back in may.

Considering 360 did 3.8 million in the same tie period at the same point in its lifecycle I think you can safely say that Xb one won't come in under that number (2.7 million for Oct-Dec). I think 9 million is pretty likely, I can't see it being short of 3 million from here to the end of the year and 3.2 million is certainly within the realms of possibility.

But best be on topic as this is a PS4 thread.

@ fatslob-:O "At the best case scenario I can only see PS4 being just above 16 million at the end of the year." You really need to look at historical data. Just over 16 million is not the best case scenario at all. It's the most likely scenario, but I think there is a very strong possibility of getting close to 17 million. It would certainly mean being one of the best selling consoles in its 2nd Holiday season to get to 17 million. But to get to 16 million means being not all that much better than PS3 in it's 2nd holiday season (albeit first holiday season for EU. I have no idea how much PS2 sold in it's 2nd holiday seson, but it feels like 5.5 million (what PS4 needs to get to 17 million) is not a second coming of PS2 sort of number. 18 million would be more like a 2nd coming level of sales, which I think is well beyond reach.

Let us do some math.

Best case scenario:
150k a week, well, let us be even more optimistics and say 200k a week. Also, let us add 2 extra million for the Hollyday Season:
October: 800k
November: 800k
December: 2.8 million.
January: 800k
February: 800k
March: 800k
April: 800k
6X800k = 5,6 million + 2.8 million: 8,4 million.
Total: 11 million + 8,4 million = 19,4 million.


Worst case scenario:
100k a week. Also, let us add 1,6 extra million for the Hollyday Season:
October: 400k
November: 400k
December: 2 million.
January: 400k
February: 400k
March: 400k
April: 400k
6X400k = 2,4 million + 2 million: 4,4 million.
Total: 11 million + 4,4 million = 15,4 million.

So, yes, 17 millions sounds like a good prediction.