Is it possible for PS4 to cross 17 million mark by 2014

[binary solo]

vivster said:

binary solo said:

Fair enough. 16 millioon is a good achievement for sure, but at this point above 16 million shouldn't be a "pleasent surprise". Back in June you could have said it would be a pleasent suprise. But when something is reasonably expected, as 16 million is now it should really not come as a surprise if it actually happens.

There is a Xb one holiday sales thread? That would be interesting to look at because I'm having a harder time getting a sense of where I think Xb one will land. There are more unknown quantities with that I think. There are things that could make Xb one sell very well, or they could have very little effect. And with XB one we don;t know if MS is going to do things with price. With PS4 things are far more predictable IMO.

My bet was 8.5 million ww minimum at the end of the year. I was very confident in X1 sales from the beginning. I'm still not convinced that X1 has no chance of taking US.

If it does less than this I will begin to lose hope but I will not give up until I see Halo 5 sales^^

Considering 360 did 3.8 million in the same tie period at the same point in its lifecycle I think you can safely say that Xb one won't come in under that number (2.7 million for Oct-Dec). I think 9 million is pretty likely, I can't see it being short of 3 million from here to the end of the year and 3.2 million is certainly within the realms of possibility.

But best be on topic as this is a PS4 thread.

@ fatslob-:O "At the best case scenario I can only see PS4 being just above 16 million at the end of the year." You really need to look at historical data. Just over 16 million is not the best case scenario at all. It's the most likely scenario, but I think there is a very strong possibility of getting close to 17 million. It would certainly mean being one of the best selling consoles in its 2nd Holiday season to get to 17 million. But to get to 16 million means being not all that much better than PS3 in it's 2nd holiday season (albeit first holiday season for EU. I have no idea how much PS2 sold in it's 2nd holiday seson, but it feels like 5.5 million (what PS4 needs to get to 17 million) is not a second coming of PS2 sort of number. 18 million would be more like a 2nd coming level of sales, which I think is well beyond reach.