I think it'll open at 25k in Japan and 200k for the first NDP month.

LTD.... 550k.

around 500k

I agree, the limited details we know about the game really prevents anyone from making a worthwhile prediction at this point in time. People have played 1 map (I think), and even though Initial reaction of the gameplay has been overwhelmingly positive, it isn't enough to draw any sort of conslusions.

Whether or not Splatoon will offer the same amount of depth and replay value as titles like Mario Kart or Smash Bros. remains to be seen, I am hopeful though. Personally, I'm rather excited about the game, the reveal trailer caught my attention and all the coverage only increased my excitement.

Thirded. It's human nature to assume that a lot of people are interested in the same things as you, but often that doesn't match reality. I believe this is the case when Nintendo fans claim this has a lot of hype. It might sell around 1,5 million if they are lucky.

With good marketing: 1.5m

With crappy marketing: 750k

I didn't expect DK to boost sales as well as I didn't expect Pikmin 3 to boost sales as well as I didn't expect Wonderful 101 to boost sales. Hyrule Warriors or Bayo2 also won't have huge impact on sales. Maybe everything combined at this point, with MK8, might be enough to start persuading people to get a WiiU.

Although being a Nintendo loyal, yet multiplatform owner, I have pretty good judgement concerning these things and am very careful with my analysis. I don't think it will sell because I'm interested in it. Devil's Third is one of the games I'm most hyped for next year and I seriously doubt it will sell any good.

I gave a reasoning for why I think it will sell well and had nothing to do with "I like it, that's why others like it".

As long as its fun and addictive it wil sell. Especially being a shooter, today's favourite gaming genre. The biggest problem might be "It's a Nintendo game, therefore kiddy" and "it is colorfoul and not realistic" preventing some "mature" gamers from trying it. But some will come around.

Nintendo is trying to create a new IP to catter to shooting fans, as they succefully did with racing (MK) and fighting (SSB). They won't mess up and make this a successful franchise. I also think they made a good choice nothing with Mario on this and adding new characters (the squids). "Mature" gamers probably wouldn't like it if it was Mario and friends again.

I'm sure it will sell more than 1M, probably will top 2M.

Don't worry, I'm not calling you delusional. What I said is basic psychology, and was not necessarily directed at you. If you are expecting 1-2 mill, then I agree with you, as I said in my post I think it could sell 1,5mill if they get over the 'kiddy' barrier, and markets it well. But those that are expecting 6-9 million lifetime are obviously over estimating.

Between 500k and 1 million LT.

I really think it won't break 1 mln sales.

Yeah with the current install base, even if WiiU manages to get a nice boost this holiday, by the time Splatoon arrives there won't be that good of install base to make 6-9mil even remotely possible.

I think most users on this forums have a wrong idea of how much a game needs to sell to be profitable or successful and tend to overestimate their predictions. Watch Dogs sold around 5,3M (according to vgchartz) all versions combined  (5 platforms). If you look at it it individually it doesn't seem to be that great (average around 1,1 per platform), yet Ubisoft still made lots of money with it and was, i believe, so far the best game in 2014 saleswise.