That's what I figured. So am I crazy then for thinking its off to list a bunch of scenarios where the most suspicious person so far is assumed innocent even when they are guilty? I mean that's what it looks like to me anyways. Maybe my perception is just clouded from the defence of RCT on day one and then the slip earlier, and being very evasive/ignoring your questions, disappearing into research, never really sharing what the research was and then based on that research assuming there are 4 mafia. Now this is my first game, but I would think it would be much different than passed games and even if there is precedent for there being 4 mafia I don't know if its safe to assume there is only 4. There are likely other games that have 5 or 6 so I'm not sure how much weight those precedents hold and whether or not its wise to make assumptions for this games based on a one or two past games.

If the vote count is in error, please PM me!

Countdown to Night 2: http://itsalmo.st/#night2

If you're talking about you and RCT, it's in the conclusions bit. If you meant me and you, I can't prove anything about myself through those scenarios, nor was it my intention.

The reason I posted those scenarios is because I wanted to see if I was missing anything, or if there was anything wrong with the logic. Mostly I just wanted to hear someone else's thoughts besides my own.

Regarding the definitely town bit, I've mentioned it before, I know we can never be 100% sure of someone alive. However, given some circumstances, a person may be quote unquote "confirmed" townie.

So, back to your question. I just left the details out for readability. I did want anyone to skim the post; I wanted as many opinions I could get.

Although in writing this I just realized a hole in the logic. I assumed multiple kills for multiple mafias, ie one kill is proof that there is only one mafia family. It slipped my mind that that's not always the case. Either way, I don't have enough suspects personally for a two faction game. I would appreciate an answer here, as opposed to having to go to old threads and looking for cases with multiple mafia families.

Regardless, I'll go ahead and explain the logic. In the cases where we assume RCTjunkie was not attacked (either the thief case, or that he's lying), then there is no reason to believe in another killing party (mainly thinking of SK), besides maybe a Poisoner. In addition, if he is telling the truth, and there is no serial killer, then a mafia would have no use for a bulletproof ability/item (RCT town conclusion comes from here). Also, since in these cases prof alone was targeted last night (he claimed early and no one else claimed), AND attacking him makes sense from a scum perspective, that makes him town in my book (prof is town conclusion comes from here). In the other scenarios I state that either one could be town of scum, ie inconclusive.

Regarding the research, honestly I wouldn't call it that. Just looking around for cases, to make up for my relative lack of experience. 20 player games would have 5 mafia and so on, so I figured mabe our 15 player game might have 4. It's just a guess to help me narrow down my suspects, I was just thinking out loud I guess. About the other thing I found, I would think you would appreciate the honesty that, yes I found something, but no I can't say it just yet. I could have just lied and said whatever.

There's plenty of reason for a bulletproof vest if there's a town vigilante.

Thanks. Man, that bit of information would be so helpful. Though, Vig, if you're reading this, don't claim yet.

Regardless, I have no more qualms about lynching RCTjunkie. He can join MrKhan and Trucks in my list.

Although, it just hit me, if he was indeed bulletproof scum but lost it, I don't think it's all that urgent to go after him. He'd be vanilla scum; relatively harmless. The same logic Hylian gave for leaving Cone for now. I'd rather go for the chance to go for one of their other power roles.

It's a tough choice. A good chance at a relatively harmless scum, or a medium chance at a power role.

I would like to join you guys on voting MrKhan, but I just got this gut feeling about Trucks.

I vote TruckOSaurus

Can you at least tell me what has set off this gut feeling about trucks?

Now, I thought I was being very clever in my time leading up until my lynch. I guess I wasn't blatant enough.

I thought we decided that gut feelings were bad reasons to vote for someone.

Well, it isn't much better than you guys and MrKhan, really. They are better than a random choice, and I don't want to do nothing toDay.

When narrowing down my list, I keep ending up with the same set of suspects. I only have a few. Along with his possible slip about daytalk, a little parroting here, a little distancing there (I'm on my phone). But really, the biggest thing is that I don't suspect that many people (maybe 4 or 5), and somebody's gotta be mafia.

MrKhan's on the list too, but he's a noob so his behavior maaybe understandable. I guess I just have a soft spot for noobs.

Also, like I said before, we do have a better case on RCTjunkie, but if he's telling the truth, then he's pretty harmless now. I'd rather take my chances on a power role.