Regarding the definitely town bit, I've mentioned it before, I know we can never be 100% sure of someone alive. However, given some circumstances, a person may be quote unquote "confirmed" townie.
So, back to your question. I just left the details out for readability. I did want anyone to skim the post; I wanted as many opinions I could get.
Although in writing this I just realized a hole in the logic. I assumed multiple kills for multiple mafias, ie one kill is proof that there is only one mafia family. It slipped my mind that that's not always the case. Either way, I don't have enough suspects personally for a two faction game. I would appreciate an answer here, as opposed to having to go to old threads and looking for cases with multiple mafia families.
Regardless, I'll go ahead and explain the logic. In the cases where we assume RCTjunkie was not attacked (either the thief case, or that he's lying), then there is no reason to believe in another killing party (mainly thinking of SK), besides maybe a Poisoner. In addition, if he is telling the truth, and there is no serial killer, then a mafia would have no use for a bulletproof ability/item (RCT town conclusion comes from here). Also, since in these cases prof alone was targeted last night (he claimed early and no one else claimed), AND attacking him makes sense from a scum perspective, that makes him town in my book (prof is town conclusion comes from here). In the other scenarios I state that either one could be town of scum, ie inconclusive.
Regarding the research, honestly I wouldn't call it that. Just looking around for cases, to make up for my relative lack of experience. 20 player games would have 5 mafia and so on, so I figured mabe our 15 player game might have 4. It's just a guess to help me narrow down my suspects, I was just thinking out loud I guess. About the other thing I found, I would think you would appreciate the honesty that, yes I found something, but no I can't say it just yet. I could have just lied and said whatever.
