Obviously... I think after the Japanese reaction when they announced the exclusive VNs, (I think) any hope that anyone had left that X1 might do great in Japan was probably gone

Their target should be to atleast match the 360 and grow the brand. Since the 360 launched Japanese developers have increasingly started to develop games aimed at the western market. FPS and other popular western genres have started to rise in popularity.

Microsoft aggressively went for the Japanese market with the 360, their strategy with the Xbox One has been more conservative but they still have secured a few Japanese visual novels for the platform.

What are VNs? The acronym isn't registering 

Visual Novels which are basically "intereactive" story telling. A lot of them are quite enjoyable but a lot of them are also free and aren't considered system sellers by any means

Visual novels.

I'm pretty sure the 360 had nonexistent sales in Japan. I doubt the XB1 would do any better.

No console will do good in Japan this gen, especially Xbox. There ain't no nerves to be hit on this matter.

I only feel it will because if PS4 and so many other consoles aren't going down well then not a lot of chance Xbox One will unless they have some software that drives sales in Japan. I am unsure to be honest because I see a lot more of Japan's taste in Nintendo and Sony, I don't see a lot in Xbox and that's why it probably why Japan wern't a huge fan.

As much as I can sit here and have an opinion, I intent to see and find out.

I'd be impressed if it sold half what the 360 did there. The console market as a whole is smaller and I doubt Tales will have an exclusive (timed or otherwise) on the X1.

Define fail. I guess that's up to what expectations anyone has.
I think a fail would be selling less than 10k at launch. But who knows, maybe that would still be a success for some.