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Forums - Sales Discussion - Help me understand MK8 sales

Max King of the Wild on 18 June 2014

Let me present the issue I think would be easier to explain first.

Europe First Ten Weeks (Units)

Week EndingWeekWeeklyChangeTotal
31st May 2014 1 256,470 N/A 256,470
07th June 2014 2 70,637 -72.5% 327,107

Japan First Ten Weeks (Units)

Week EndingWeekWeeklyChangeTotal
31st May 2014 1 334,440 N/A 334,440
07th June 2014 2 73,851 -77.9% 408,291

Europe Hardware by Platform

PlatformWeekly (change)Total
PS4 49,798 (-34%) 2,975,749
3DS 32,550 (+3%) 11,223,702
WiiU 31,633 (-42%) 1,351,233

Japan Hardware by Platform

PlatformWeekly (change)Total
3DS 36,727 (+53%) 15,707,909
WiiU 13,073 (-32%) 1,782,016

Okay, do we really expect second week sales to be similar in Europe to Japan with a much smaller opening and install base to sell to? I don't. Europe has a higher attach rate too. 50k second week seems right to me.

 

Now bigger issue. We know Nintendo announced 1.2m sold (let's ignore shipped vs sold argument and assume sold). This includes FW sales + another day and digital. VGC has it at over 1.1m sold FW and 293k second week. VGC does NOT track digital. So, lets look at second week... 293k sales in seven days with one of those days being included in 1.2m figure... So... there were 0 copies of MK8 downloaded?? Not only that, but the majority of those 293k probably come from its first day of the week which was on the weekend. Weekend sales are always higher than through the week especially on something that JUST released. If we say, oh I don't know, half of second week came from Sunday then that would put MK8 past 1.2m. And half (~150k) seems reasonable. That would mean 1.05m for the other two days. So sales would look like this, 750k first day, 255k second day and 150k third day.

Bottom line: Overtracked.



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MoHasanie on 18 June 2014

I think after NPD released the sales, we realized that 1.2m was shipped not sold.



    

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Max King of the Wild on 18 June 2014
MoHasanie said:
I think after NPD released the sales, we realized that 1.2m was shipped not sold.


Ignore that argument. Even if it were sold it would still be overtracked. If it were shipped then that makes it worse.



OfficerRaichu15 on 18 June 2014
MoHasanie said:
I think after NPD released the sales, we realized that 1.2m was shipped not sold.


well we still dont know fully the european all we know it sold about 780k in japan and US fw so it might be pass a million first week with europe



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Clyde32 on 18 June 2014
MoHasanie said:
I think after NPD released the sales, we realized that 1.2m was shipped not sold.


Or maybe that it was counting digital sales?



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kirby007 on 18 June 2014

You base this on the normal trend, which is based on the hardcore gamer.
the casual fan only starts noticing it is released a days late



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tbone51 on 18 June 2014

We kno its overtracked, whats up with the Agenda as of late anyway?

Anywayz, numbers will probably shape up into reality soon. Pokemon XY first month was Overtracked by abot 1mil, then after holidays it was undertracked by a mil.

No need to make a huge deal when it just started, especially if its just 100k-150k overtracked.

Besides Yoshi Island is undertracked as well as a couple others



drake_tolu on 18 June 2014

MK8 have sold 1,200,000 on weekend, not in one week.

So, 1,100,000 retail, and 100,000 digital.



Anfebious on 18 June 2014

OH MY GOD! A game is overtracked in VG Chartz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



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Max King of the Wild on 18 June 2014
kirby007 said:
You base this on the normal trend, which is based on the hardcore gamer.
the casual fan only starts noticing it is released a days late


MK8 very much has a hardcore opening. Just look in Japan for this evidence. Where the casuals kick in is instead of it opening with 1.2m and selling another 1.2m in the following month then basically being dead like hardcore it will just not be dead after a month.