By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Prediction : Destiny will flop

 

By the end of 2015, Destiny will reach...

15+ million sales 126 23.42%
 
10+ million sales 180 33.46%
 
5+ million sales 140 26.02%
 
less than 5 million sales 89 16.54%
 
Total:535
theprof00 said:
fighter said:

 


Yes, I've had the ken avatar forever. 

Yes I'm criticizing the game and I don't understand why you have an issue with it:

Is it because you disagree with me on the features and gameplay that we know of ? I stand by all my observations and I don't see what changes they can do to fix that before launch (except maybe the AI which sucks in the frequent outdoors but seems good in the rare closed environments - i'll update that end of June depending on the eventual fix and how frequently you get in-doors)

I see your point regarding the eventual MMO to MMORPG confusion and don't worry. When I say it is very light for an MMO i mean it.

Is it because of the the Bungie factor ? If yes obviously Bungie has an amazing reputation and this is why actually I do not take it into account :

They are doing things completely new to them gameplay-wise.

 The production values are Halo-esque (UI/ Universe/ Music / graphical precision etc.) but the gameplay you have to admit is absolutely not similar to Halo. So don't be surprised if I don't give in blindly because it's Bungie. 

 

And yes I reserve the right to revise my prediction by end of June.  I might just revise the numbers and I don't see what novelty/improvement might be implemented in such a short delay to change the overall perspective.

Rest assured that I i'll still predict a flop and a free-to-play model by 2016.

I have an issue because I don't understand how you come to the conclusion from the evidence.

AI will be better. That's a given. It's an alpha.

The fact that they are doing completely new things gameplay-wise is fine. Look at insomniac. Sunset overdrive is basically ratchet and clank but with a brand new gameplay style. Or Naughty dog with the last of us. Completely different from uncharted gameplay wise, as was uncharted from anything they did prior.

Nobody says to give in blindly just because it is Bungie. But a new ip is a new ip. Look at watchdogs. There are so many new ip's done by huge studios and it's pretty rare for them to flop. Even bad games like ff13 still do really well. Look at red dead redemption, which was so far different from both the prequel, red dead revolver, as it was from grand theft auto, but still rockstar did it. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to show me a major developer who has made a new ip which has flopped. I honestly can't think of one.

It's already free to play....or did you mean micro-transaction model?

What gameplay do they need to fix?

Actually a lot of MMOs flop if not most. Even the very promising Star Wars, FFXIV and Warhammer Online flopped hard.

http://officialfan.proboards.com/thread/426371

http://cortexmeltdown.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/top-ten-biggest-mmo-disappointments/

 

Edit :

I hope you're kidding when you say it's already a F2P or that it's an alpha. You have been on VGChartz for longer than me so you can't be that ne to games.

To the very vague question "What gameplay do they need to fix?" you might need to be more precise. And to be frank that question seems dishonest.



Around the Network

It won't flop because a lot of people will run into stores and buy it and enjoy it. But it won't be better than other shooters or games like it. It will be an average title which will be successfull over years just because a lot of people thought that it would a innovative new experience from Bungie.



I don't hate Microsoft, I don't hate PC,
I don't prefer Sony, I don't prefer Nintendo.
...Ok, I love Nintendo but this is something about tolerance, ok?

I'm a gamer with one of the greatest hobbies and I want to share this greatness with everyone.

fighter said:
theprof00 said:
fighter said:

 


I see your point regarding the eventual MMO to MMORPG confusion and don't worry. When I say it is very light for an MMO i mean it.

Actually a lot of MMOs flop if not most. Even the very promising Star Wars, FFXIV and Warhammer Online flopped hard.

http://officialfan.proboards.com/thread/426371

http://cortexmeltdown.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/top-ten-biggest-mmo-disappointments/

 

And yet you JUST promised me that you didn't mean mmorpg.

Warhammer online, ff14, tortanic are full MMORPGs with subscriptions.

Destiny is so far from being an MMORPG you might as well compare it with Diablo. You'd be far more accurate.



All I can say is that I watched about an hour of an alpha live stream yesterday and I came away impressed.  It seemed sharp for a game that is three months away from hitting the shelves.  A lot of people were watching the stream and there were a lot of negative comments about the game thrown around, but the guy who was playing it said that it was a great experience.  Just from watching him I could tell his thoughts about the game were genuine. 

 

I defintiely want to experience the alpha and beta for myself, but from what I've seen so far I think it will be a game I enjoy.  As far as not being focused on on one aspect I think its possible for the game to not be great at any one thing, but with Bungie I think its also possible that everything about the game will be amazing and this instantly becomes one of the greatest games of the generation.



Predicting that Second Son (PS4) will outsell Titanfall (XOne) in lifetime sales.  Click here for sales comparison thread.

If you call 6m+ first week a flop



The One and Only

VizionEck.com

Around the Network

160 million 360 and ps3 gamers combined.
If Destiny sells to 2% of them that's 3mil units for gen 7 consoles alone.

On ps4 watch dogs sold to 23% of the user base at launch and 20% of the XB1 base picked up the game.
So by September ps4 will be around 9mil units and xb1 should be at 5.5 or 6mil.
So at launch it should sell 2mil on ps4 and 1.3 mil on Xb1. This game should be bigger than Watch dogs.

Combined that's 6.2 million copies sold at least at launch. 10 mil life time.
That's $370mil in revenue week 1.


That ain't no flop in my book. And I am being extremely conservative, as I did not take the fact that Bungie have pretty loyal base of 5-8 million fans that want in on their next game since 2011.



you people who think this will sell below 5 million copies by the end of 2014 are delusional. Impressions from IGN/GB and twitch streamers have nothing but positive (and critical) responses. Yes, it's in beta. Yes, the game you see people playing now will represent the game when it's released. There won't be much that will change.

Can't just judge a game based on a few leaked clips of crap quality gameplay (mind you, they're from the very beginning of the game. no one has seen content beyond level 8 or the other PvP modes). It's going to be a good, and coming from a PC gamer, it's a game that will push me to purchase a PS4. I'm sure the same sentiment can be said for others

Coupled with the fact that Sony/Activision is hyping it up to be the next big thing, bundling it with a new white PS4, and Bungie's knack for quality and community involvement, there's no way it's going to flop.

Game looks great.



theprof00 said:
fighter said:

Actually a lot of MMOs flop if not most. Even the very promising Star Wars, FFXIV and Warhammer Online flopped hard.

http://officialfan.proboards.com/thread/426371

http://cortexmeltdown.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/top-ten-biggest-mmo-disappointments/

 

And yet you JUST promised me that you didn't mean mmorpg.

Warhammer online, ff14, tortanic are full MMORPGs with subscriptions.

Destiny is so far from being an MMORPG you might as well compare it with Diablo. You'd be far more accurate.

Those MMOs are actually much closer to Destiny than any of the examples you gave. Would you prefer me to cite MAG ? Mmmh ?

So coming back to my point, a LOT of MMOs fail. And none of the games you cited are MMOs.

And you really seem comfortable with your belief that Destiny is already free to play ? LOL



fighter said:
theprof00 said:
fighter said:

Actually a lot of MMOs flop if not most. Even the very promising Star Wars, FFXIV and Warhammer Online flopped hard.

http://officialfan.proboards.com/thread/426371

http://cortexmeltdown.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/top-ten-biggest-mmo-disappointments/

 

And yet you JUST promised me that you didn't mean mmorpg.

Warhammer online, ff14, tortanic are full MMORPGs with subscriptions.

Destiny is so far from being an MMORPG you might as well compare it with Diablo. You'd be far more accurate.

Those MMOs are actually much closer to Destiny than any of the examples you gave. Would you prefer me to cite MAG ? Mmmh ?

So coming back to my point, a LOT of MMOs fail. And none of the games you cited are MMOs.

And you really seem comfortable with your belief that Destiny is already free to play ? LOL


because it is f2p unless you're referring to the PS+ subscription. Bungie have already confirmed they won't be charging an extra fee. DLC is definitely a thing though, which is fine in my book. Bungie knows what they're doing. Having an extra subscription is completely illogical

He is correct in stating that it's very similar to Diablo in that you have a hub where all players can meet and mingle. you may take others out with you to more instanced (but active) zones to do missions.



You'll be surprised, Destiny will sell much more than Watch Dogs



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m