I do not think there will another Xbox 360 price cut for a while. Instead, I think Microsoft will add Blu-ray drive as standard in every console. Now that Toshiba and Microsoft have officially announced that they will not make HD DVD drives anymore, I see this as probable. Obviously, it would allow Microsoft to compete more directly with Sony. Think $500 vs $450, and $400 vs $350, the only significant difference being games. Imagine a Blu-ray player for $280 (Xbox 360 Arcade).
I think Microsoft would be able to do this without losing much money in the cost to make a 360. The most recent data I saw, which was over a year old, had the cost of the 20 GB 360 being $323, but it has probably gone down since then, maybe to $290. A Blu-ray drive costs about $100, which is about $80 more than a DVD drive. That means it would be roughly $370 to make a console, which is not much more than $350. Perhaps it could even be profitable, if my numbers are off.
This may be why Microsoft is having supply issues. Maybe some of the manufacturing plants are making consoles with Blu-ray drives, while less are making them with DVD drives.
Expect an announcement sometime in March.
P.S. This was written with a false tone of confidence.
Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.
Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):
- DS: 94 million (96.0)
- Wii: 46 million (44.4)
- PSP: 45 million (43.6)
- X360: 27 million (27.3)
- PS3: 24 million (19.4)
- PS2: 124 million (123.7)









Next Gen

