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Forums - Sales - Halo 3 perorders 4 million?

Bodhesatva on 19 May 2007
Kai Master said:

Mario 64 was bundled so we can't compare

THE really big seller was SMB3 with 17M, that's the ultimate goal for a game that is not a Pokémon of course. GTAs sold up to 15M, so 15M is reallistic but only on a console sold at 40+ millions.


 Mario 64 wasn't bundled with the N64. At least not in my neck of the woods. And this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Mario_64 seems to agree with me. 



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Zucas on 19 May 2007

Halo 3 at 15 million sold. Guys get realistic for moment. For one Halo is really not that huge of a game anywhere outside of America. Meaning if it sales another 6 million in America then it will sell at the most 2-3 million anywhere else. But right now 360 base is nowhere near large enough to support that sales. I expect that at the end of the 360's life Halo 3 will probably have sold close to 8 million tops. Similar sales to that of Halo 2. I do not expect the title to break 10 million.



mrstickball on 19 May 2007

Zucas, the only real issue to that thought is this: Gears of War for the 360 is the 3rd highest selling game in Microsoft history. With 6 million consoles sold @ GoW's launch, it still managed to sell quite well, and has around 4m to 4.5m units sold thus far. Provided those numbers are true, GoW has sold 2.5m (or so) copies in America, and anywhere from 1.5m to 2.0m elsewhere. That's anywhere from a 5:3 ratio to a 5:4 ratio. Halo 2 was (I assume) a 4:1 ratio. If H3 had similar ratios, we could certainly see it more than 3m elsewhere in the world.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Rath on 19 May 2007

The idea of 4 million pre-orders just doesnt work. Most people who buy a game dont pre-order it, largely because they are too lazy to. I wouldnt personally be holding out for any more than 1.5Mil preorders. However I think the game will sell AFTER its launch and reach globally about 9 million, 6.5 in north america 2.5 elsewhere. This wont happen instantly as halo 3 will be one of the games that gets picked up with the console over its entire lifetime.



mrstickball on 19 May 2007

Kind of an edit after my post: I found the actual ratios of Gears of War vs. Halo and Halo 2. Although Halo 2 actually increased in sales by quite a few units (about 1.5m globally), the ratio of european/Japanese sales decreased quite a bit. On the other hand, Gears of War's ratio is FAR better. Some of this could be attributed to the fact Europeans prefer TPS over FPS more. However, this leads me to extrapolate the following scenarios for your enjoyment:

Scenario #1: Halo 3 sees the exact increase in sales that Halo 2 saw over Halo 1 globally
9,350,000 Units sold Worldwide
Scenario #2: Halo 3 sees the exact increase in sales that Halo 2 saw over Halo 1 in the USA/NA (7.3m sales, a 1.2m increase over h2), but see's a 2:1 ratio of NA sales to European sales, mimicing Gears of War
10,965,000 Units sold Worldwide
Scenario #3: Halo 3 sees similar US/NA results to Halo 2, but sees a 2:1 ratio of sales in Europe
9,165,000 Units sold Worldwide
Scenario #4: Halo 3 sees similar US/NA results to Halo 2, but sees a Halo 1-type ratio of sales in Europe (about 10% higher)
7,997,990 Units sold Worldwide I'm not saying ANY of these will happen, but I do think one of these scenarios is likely to happen. IMO, I'd say scenario 2 is the most likely, but who knows.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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DigitalHero on 19 May 2007
your mother said:
Kwaad said:
zaphodile said:

I just read this: http://www.xe360.com/article/Halo_3/3837.html

Is it really feasible?


If that has any truth to it, the Wii might pass the 360 before halo comes out, but by friggin god, the 360 will walk all over it for the holiday months.

(what I mean is there will be many many many million consoles bought during that period)


...while both the Wii and the Xbox360 continue their gang-rape of the PS3!


 INDEED.



Systems I CURRENTLY Own: PLAYSTATION 3, Nintendo Wii, PC

 Call of Duty 4 - Rank: 54 General II - K/D Ratio: 2.50

 

 

superchunk on 19 May 2007

It will immediately sell the 4m that Gears of War audience. Push about 500k consoles and in the end of this year be around 5.5m. Then over the next couple of years it will grow to a max of 8m. Still far below the best Mario games or Pokemon or GTA. People keep thinking that there is this untapped pool of xbox fans that have been waiting for Halo3 to buy the console. There isn't. Most of them already have purchased it last xmas when Gears of War launched. That is why they sold 800k and 1.2m in November/December respectively. September will be big, but not big enough to stop the inevitable wii-train.



mrstickball on 19 May 2007

Superchunk, that's really debatable. One could say the same thing about when Halo2 came out. One could figure that H1 sold to everyone that wanted a Halo game, or that when Halo 2 came out, no one would buy the console for H2 when there was already one halo out. The problem with that logic is that when Halo 2 launched, the Xbox had the highest November for an MS console (850,000 units) and beat the Playstation 2 out by about 150,000 units. Sony also had their lowest sales for a holiday for such a strong system in about 7 years (there was only a 200k margin between the Xbox and the PS2). Also, the game purchasing tendencies for the 360 crowd is a bit stronger to the non-shooter genre of games than the Xbox was. Sports games are stronger on the 360 (ala PS2). Madden 07 outsold any Madden on Xbox. Fight Night 3 sold better than any other FN. Most of the sales are more spread out to the "non hardcore" as much as the Xbox was. Project Gotham is the only game that did outsell the 360 version. Will everyone that bought Gears of War buy Halo 3? Most likely. However, there is a huge untapped market of about 3 million other people that bought Halo that didn't buy Gears of War. That's 3 million people that might buy a 360 this Christmas for Halo 3. Thats in addition to anyone that might buy it for a Grand Theft Auto game (GTAs have sold in the 2m w/w range with both the VC/LC double pack and just under 2m for GTA:SA), and the discrepancy of RPG players that bought KOTOR 1 (still leads Oblivion by 350k units), or even Fable (leads closest RPG-esque game Oblivion by 1 million units). So theres a rather large area between just Halo owners and RPG owners for the 360 that sales haven't been reflected in. Overall, 360 owners are buying more sports games, more shooters (atleast with what we have for the 1m sellers for the 360). Again, to reiterate: There are 3,900,000 people that bought a copy of Halo 2 that didn't buy a copy of Gears of War. I feel this needs to be addressed by asking where they are before saying that the 360 won't sell. IMO, after studying, the 360 is due for one absolute killer Christmas. You'll have the 3.9m old Xbox owners that haven't got a 360 (if you considered 100% of people that bought GOW that also had an Xbox + Halo, which is virtually impossible), as well as whatever other owners did not own a copy of Halo. GTA could bring quite a few out of the old Xbox woodwork, as well as much stronger sales for people that will buy GTA that haven't invested in either a PS3 or X360. Which could result in very strong European sales (as GTA is huge over there). But that's only theoretical. I am sure that GTA will sell either equally on both PS3/360 in Europe, or a slight advantage to the PS3. However, it should certainly benefit both systems incredibly.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball on 19 May 2007

A quick note on some looking I did through the Japanese weekly charts: The tendencies of every game in human history that's a sequal has always driven hardware if the original was popular. I would sugguest, superchunk, that you go look at EVERY single game ever created that's a sequal, and see what effect that sequal has on hardware. There are always untapped markets of consumers that will buy a system for a major sequal. 2 quick examples: FFXII increasing PS2 sales by roughly 176% (24k to 66k). Monster Hunter Portable 2 increasing PSP demand by 325% (30k to 100k) Mousou Orochi increasing PS2 sales by 24% (not much, but proves my point as there were already 5 Mousou games out on PS2)



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

a.l.e.x59 on 20 May 2007

It makes sense. Halo was the best thing on the original Xbox. Since there are about 10 million Xbox 360's world wide, it would make sense for most of the Xbox 360 owners to buy the game. It's like owning a Nintendo Gamecube, and not owning Super Mario Sunshine.