PS3 with 10m install base is fundamentally dead in Japan. PS4 is dead on arrival in Japan. WiiU is managing slight signs of life thanks to their big IPs. That's it. The software charts are to the gills with mobile, it's getting to the point where dev costs for console games in Japan won't be enough to turn a profit unless they're incredibly cheap to make.

With all of that, anyone expecting XB1 to be more than a dismal failure there is going to be surprised. It's possible we could even see sales of less than 100/week. Nobody can turn back the clock to when home consoles were cool/normal there. It's a bygone era.

So you think games like Infinite Undiscovery; The Last Remnant; Star Ocean; Eternal Sonata; Magna Carta & Ninety Nine Nights are being made?

In which case, I'm going to have to disagree with you.  The publishers of these games (Square Enix; Namco Bandai; Konami) are more interested in chasing the mobile bubble and have all but abandoned mid-tier console development.  

Other stuff like Ridge Racer & Ace Combat have gone F2P in an effort to salvage the IP's.  Other stuff like Lost Planet & Ninja Gaiden died out or became completely irrelevant with rubbish entries.

These were all things that MS relied on to reach 1.6m in Japan, plus a few of their own efforts and some otaku-focused stuff.  The otaku-focused stuff (Idolm@ster; Dream C Club) has found a new home on either handhelds or PS3.  Can't see them coming back to be honest with you.

So yes, you did name the two mid-tier franchises remaining.  I can't see Persona coming to XB1, but stranger things have happened I suppose.  We'd still be a few years off that happening though, considering we're waiting on Persona 5 to be released at the end of 2014 (so maybe 2016 for Persona 6 if we're lucky).

Tales, yes.  But it seems like Tales isn't coming back to Microsoft consoles:

http://www.gamingangels.com/2013/11/interview-with-tales-of-producer-hideo-baba-at-new-york-comic-con/

VB: Are there currently any Tales games in development for the Playstation 4? Will there ever be any plans to bring the series to X-Box One?

HB: We are looking forward to developing for the next generation consoles, but we currently do not have anything in development at this time. I think we would like to focus our efforts on the Playstation 4 again, but we have no updates or news for you in regards to that at this time!

So ultimately, what's left?  Not a whole lot.

They would move consoles if they were being made, I agree, but they're not.  I suppose Microsoft could go in and tell Square Enix that they want a new Star Ocean to be developed and they want it to be exclusive to XB1, but the amount of money they'd pay for that vs. the return they'd get would make it a pretty silly move.

The PS4 is not going to pick up much in Japan.

Interestingly the XB1 might have the distinction of being the final console launch in Japan of all time in a traditional sense. Everything from here out will probably be a streaming device or handheld with TV-output.

To be fair, I think the PS3 is holding PS4 back because it's getting so much support this year. Kingdom Hearts 2.5 Remix, Atelier Shallie, Persona Arena Duplex, Persona 5, and Tales of Zesteria are not a lineup to sneeze at.

That's a decent point, and it does account for heavy competition for what limited console sales are even possible. Yet, looking at the top 100 software charts in Japan, home consoles are barely alive. The only titles that sell more than a trifle are basically the big guns from the U.

They release their console in countries where it sells less, I guess why bother with those also?

Them going after Japan means games for everyone, consumer win.

Actually if it causes a net loss in terms of investment vs. return, this merely does harm to the Xbox brand. Less money to pay for in-house development, less money to pay for extra content from 3rd parties, etc.

Given the ludicrously huge marketing/localization/infrastructure costs involved + tiny profit per console, there's virtually zero chance they will recoup anything from bringing it to Japan. In all probability they will end up eating several hundred million on the deal, or even worse if they have any agreements to take back unsold inventories (which may be necessary to even get stores to offer them any shelf space at all).

PS4 is DOA in Japan and likely won't recover. WiiU is eking out a modest but tiny spot. Xb1 will be deader than dead there.

Mobile is god in Japan, everything else is basically dust to dust.

Even thought the Xbox doesnt sell as much as PS and Nintendo on Japan i think it can do good with some good exclusives (and the rumors point towards a Platinum X1 exclusive, so that could give them a good start on japan).

Wait....people actually think X1 will succeed in Japan? That's cute..

Have you worked for a multinational corporation before? I'm not being flippant, I am just curious. I've worked for several, Microsoft included, and they are KINGS at wasting absolutely stunning amounts of money. From exhorbitant executive salaries to stunningly expensive duplicated waste at every turn, Microsoft simply hemmorhages cash at every turn with everything they do. Look at what their Surface/Phone lines have cost them.

As for a return from mobile, I don't think so. We're going on what, 8 solid years of notable declines for home consoles in Japan? With no end in sight. With the devs fleeing home consoles there, it's inevitable that home consoles as a whole will entirely vanish.