TheDrill said:
Halo will prove once again that it can sell systems, doesn't matter how good it is, the name will sell.
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You need new IPs, too. Relying on the same franchises over and over again is detrimental to the X1 and the series themselves. Look what happened with Gears of War Judgement and God of War Ascension. Perfect examples of franchise fatigue. MS can't just release Halo 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9. The overall quality will suffer immensely and less people will buy Halo consequently leading to less hardware moved out. However, MS can't afford to leave such large gaps between big games. This is where new IPs and indies are very important: to keep the players happy until the next big thing.
The problem with the X1 is that the Xbox community tends to not care so much about new IPs, as seen from the reception of The Lost Odyssey and Alan Wake, for example. The diversity of the 360 library suffered as a consequence of this and Alan Wake eventually got released on PC. While Sunset Overdrive looks unique, it may be easily overshadowed by the huge multiplats like COD: Advanced Warfare and Destiny. It was smart for RAD to delay The Order: 1886 to 2015 because there are already a bunch of action games coming out in the fall/holidays. It was also clever for Sony to have Driveclub and Little Big Planet 3 out this fall because those games cater to different audiences, LBP 3 especially. There is absolutely no competitor to LBP 3 from X1's side and thus, the younger and family oriented audiences are Sony's to lose this year.
Another huge flaw to your argument is that you're implying that MS will release Halo while Sony will just sit on their bums, twiddling their thumbs. Whatever big game MS will release, Sony will counter with one of theirs. Halo will be countered with Uncharted 4. Forza will be countered with Driveclub AND Gran Turismo 7. Gears will be countered with Guerilla's new open-world IP. Quantum Break will be countered with Quantic Dream's new IP. However, Sony has a lot more than just these games coming up. Media Molecule, Sony London, Guerilla Cambridge, Sony Bend, and Santa Monica Studios have yet to reveal their new games. The PS4 also has games like Rime, Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, The Witness, and Without Memory coming up for the PS4 gamers to enjoy. None of the PS4's exclusives are as large as Halo, but because PS4 has more (high quality) games coming up, the combined effect will be vastly greater than that of Halo, Forza, and Gears.
TLDR: Whatever ground MS manages to make up with Halo will easily be negated and then some because the PS4 has a lot more upcoming high quality games.