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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

Arkaign said:
I hate to agree but that's true, the xb1 numbers are hopelessly broken. They even had a cancelled game selling a ton of copies ffs. Ludicrous.

It wouldn't be interesting if VGChartz had low margins of error.

The fact that VGChartz's estimates are far worse than random guessing is what makes current sales thread so entertaining.



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lmaobox said:
TheDrill said:
lmaobox said:
TheDrill said:
BeElite said:
TheDrill said:
 

That doesn't discredit at all what I have said, you can see for yourself how close ps4 and X1 numbers are in US.

Reality discredits everything you say.   Last month PS4 out sold X1 by nearly double in US, may ndp will be ever worse.  In case you havent noticed things are only getting worse for X1 not better, any hopes for recovery and the unlikly catch up are just that hopes. 

nothing anywhere points to a x1 recovery, in case you havent noticed. 


I am not talking about a single month, but overall.

No matter how good the PS4 seemed to sell a few weeks, the facts are:

X1 is very close in sales to PS4 in the US

X360 was very strong last generation in US and UK, and latest charts show that it's still the case

While selling less units Titanfall still managed to sell a lot more than Infamous did, or any other game, this encourages devs to devel exclusively for X1, as their games sell a lot  better there.


Titanfall was sold on 3 platforms.

I do believe Infamous: SS outsold Xbone Titanfall on April in the US.

Overall sales, Titanfall sold more units on X1 than Infamous SS on PS4.
Titanfall sits at 1.1 million in the US

while Infamous is only at 0.6 million.

Titanfall is still top 10 in the US.

Titanfall is only in the top 10 if you include the 360, Xbone and PC version. With the Xbone alone, it's selling worse than ISS. Currently, we don't know how many titanfalls were sold on the Xbone, because Microsoft is being hush-hush about it. The numbers are probably very embarassing and lower than Infamous SS.

Also, stop using VGChartz numbers. Everyone knows that they're false. They're about as accurate as any random dude's prediction.


I am talking only about the X1 version, it sold more than Infamous.

Please check current week's software sales in US.



TheDrill said:
lmaobox said:

Titanfall is only in the top 10 if you include the 360, Xbone and PC version. With the Xbone alone, it's selling worse than ISS. Currently, we don't know how many titanfalls were sold on the Xbone, because Microsoft is being hush-hush about it. The numbers are probably very embarassing and lower than Infamous SS.

Also, stop using VGChartz numbers. Everyone knows that they're false. They're about as accurate as any random dude's prediction.


I am talking only about the X1 version, it sold more than Infamous.

Please check current week's software sales in US.

Did you not read what he said, TheDrill? VGC numbers are false and yet you keep insisting everyone to believe that they're true. Infamous SS has sold more than the X1 version of Titanfall, period. Also, Shadow1980 provided spectacular insight and supported his reasoning with facts! We are all still waiting for yours. And unsurprisingly, you just ignore it and proceed to keep replying for the sake of replying. For goodness sakes, read!



Shadow1980 said:

As of April NPD, the PS4 is 497,000 units in the lead LTD and 300k in the lead YTD. That is not an insignificant gap, and that gap will obviously widen come May NPD, perhaps by well over another 100k units, putting the YTD gap at around 600k. The XBO would have to have an absolutely massive rebound to close that 600k gap "soon." And if we assume "soon" to mean "by year's end," if the PS4 averages at least 250k per month from June through October, that means the XBO would have to nearly triple its April figures every month just to erase the YTD gap by time November rolls around, and would have to outsell the PS4 by at least another 300k in the Nov.+Dec. period. Even if the PS4 only averages 200k per month for the remaining non-holiday months. The XBO would still have to have more than double (specifically a 117% increase, appropriate considering Halo's importance to Xbox) its sales to erase the YTD gap. But I have serious doubts that the Kinect-less XBO will boost sales that much for reasons: 1) it's nowhere near as good of a deal as the Titanfall bundle (which itself failed to outsell the PS4), 2) it's technically not even a price cut, and 3) most importantly, comparable price cuts early in other system's lives rarely result in such large and permanent boosts in baseline sales. They sometimes give the appearance of such boosts, but that's usually due to the price cut occurring in approximate conjunction with some other factor, usually major software releases or tax season. Once such confounding factors go away, we often still see solid boosts, but nothing exceeding a two-fold increase in average sales. Perhaps the biggest increases we ever saw in the U.S. last generation due to price cuts was the release of the PS3 Slim in 2009, which resulted in some months immediately following the release of said SKU having over double or even triple the sales of the months prior to its release, but it was hardly anything consistent. It gave the PS3 a large enough boost to soundly beat the 360 in September and gave it a very strong holiday quarter, beating the 360 in October and December. Here's how it sold in quarterly terms in 2008 through 2010:


(Note: Q2 2008 saw the release of MGS4, which pushed the PS3 to 405k units in June, half the sales of that quarter.)

As we see, the PS3 Slim did help baseline sales a good bit in 2010 in addition to giving it a strong holiday quarter in 2009, but the baseline sales when averaged out over time were hardly the double the XBO would need at minimum to start closing the gap between itself and the PS4. Overall, the PS3 sold 42% more units in the first half of 2010 than in the first half of 2009, and in the second half of 2010 it was actually down from the same period in 2009, enough to where it was barely up overall for the year (the release of the 360 Slim probably had a lot to do with that). So, the Kinect-less SKU will likely provide a solid boost to sales, and in June it may even beat the PS4 for the first time this year, but I don't think it will provide anything so strong and permanent to even do as much as keep it above 200k per month from July through October. Given historical precedent, the best we should hope for is an average of 150-175k per month at most. This will reduce the rate the PS4/XBO gap increases, but will obviously not reverse the trend.

Overcoming the momentum of another better-selling system in the same generation is not an easy thing to accomplish. The PS3, despite having more rapid growth in its first several years than the 360, still couldn't ever close the gap between the two, and in 2010 the PS3's fate of coming in last in the U.S. for the generation was sealed. But with the right games and right pricing it's not impossible to become the new sales leader later in the generation. We saw the PS1 finally overtaking the N64 in the U.S. when FFVII was released, even though the PS1 had been languishing with mediocre sales for two years and the N64 was outselling it for a year straight since its release in August 1996. Also, the 360 has ultimately outsold the Wii in the U.S. due to better software support giving it stronger legs, a newer Red-Ring-free SKU at a good price making it even more attractive, and the waning sales of the Wii providing an opening as customers who had their Wii fix decided to supplement things with a more conventional gaming machine. However, the PS1 and N64 were very different systems, as were the 360 and Wii. Right now the PS4 and XBO share some 90% of the same library. In fact, exclusives are now the sole difference between the two systems (or at least the only difference that matters for most consumers). Thus, it's incumbent on MS to convince gamers that their selection of exclusives is just so damn awesome that they absolutely must have an XBO. That'll be tough to pull off, and given MS's track record they may even fail at this crucial task, but it's still possible that they could succeed in giving solid first-party support this time. It's not quite a runaway for Sony yet, but the longer they wait the tougher it will be to overcome the PS4's momentum, and unless something changes besides the introduction of the Kinect-less SKU it could become a runaway lead for the PS4.

Damn, well said. I keep telling TheDrill that the Kinect-less SKU is merely a short term solution, but he just wouldn't listen. As a matter of fact, he didn't read your comment which I think is really disrespectful.



The price cut starts on June 9th and it won't do a damn thing.



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Aura7541 said:
Update on the best sellers list in Amazon and Gamestop. As of now, PS4 is #11 while the X1 is #201 (Titanfall bundle is at #50) on Amazon. In Gamestop, PS4 is #49 while X1 is #111. We're already close to the Kinect-less SKU's release date, but the SKU isn't making such a huge statement as a must-buy.

As of this post, PS4 at #9 while standalone X1 at #170 in Amazon. PS4 at #76 and X1 at #116 in Gamestop. Only a week left until the SKU releases, but demand for PS4 still greatly exceeds demand for the X1. At this point, the X1 will most likely be outsold by narrower margins and the gap will still increase. Overall, the standalone X1 is going to serve more as a "deficit shrinker" than a "gap shrinker".



Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
lmaobox said:

Titanfall is only in the top 10 if you include the 360, Xbone and PC version. With the Xbone alone, it's selling worse than ISS. Currently, we don't know how many titanfalls were sold on the Xbone, because Microsoft is being hush-hush about it. The numbers are probably very embarassing and lower than Infamous SS.

Also, stop using VGChartz numbers. Everyone knows that they're false. They're about as accurate as any random dude's prediction.


I am talking only about the X1 version, it sold more than Infamous.

Please check current week's software sales in US.

Did you not read what he said, TheDrill? VGC numbers are false and yet you keep insisting everyone to believe that they're true. Infamous SS has sold more than the X1 version of Titanfall, period. Also, Shadow1980 provided spectacular insight and supported his reasoning with facts! We are all still waiting for yours. And unsurprisingly, you just ignore it and proceed to keep replying for the sake of replying. For goodness sakes, read!


Are you telling me vgchartz got the infamous numbers wrong, by more than 100 %? this is beyond ridicoulous!

Titanfall  for X1 only outsold Infamous  2 to 1



TheDrill said:


Are you telling me vgchartz got the infamous numbers wrong, by more than 100 %? this is beyond ridicoulous!

Titanfall  for X1 only outsold Infamous  2 to 1

lol how about prove it, post an article from Ea or MS championing TFs X1 sales over anything PS4.  Given PS4 spanking X1 youd think MS would use any posative pr they can get their hands on.  Or maybe NDP sourced numebrs.



can we just let this thread die already?



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DD_Bwest said:
can we just let this thread die already?


If this thread dies tho what else will you read while you're trapped on the satellite of love? I mean you could watch another terrible science fiction movie but where is the fun in that? 



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