I expected a minimum LTD sales of 50 million. That seemed realistic for that time.

At this point, i'm expecting between 15-17 million LTD. I wish it wasn't so, but Nintendo is not proving me wrong for the moment :(.

As late as Holiday 2012, I thought the Wii U would be fine. Then 2013 rolled in and everything went wrong.

Yes I did.....
Many gamers think that specs in a system is not the most important thing and that the game are....
This may be true to some extent, but in order to make creative new experiences you need hardware that will not limit the imagination of developers. And this is what the Wii-U does.
The Wii also did, but casual gamers saved the Wii.

A combination of up to date hardware along with a steady stream of both 1st and 3rd party titles is what will ensure a successful system.

E3 2011 really gave me the impression Nintendo was doing something wrong.

When predicting this gen right after WiiU reveal I thought it would go
1. WiiU: Brand name that sold 100m this gen and it was going to be the cheapest
2. PS4: Learning from mistakes of the past and still stronger than Xbox in Europe. Obviously wouldn't be as expensive as PS3 compared to competition.
3. Xbox: Piggy-backed off Sony mistakes to most of their market share this gen and mostly only strong in one region (albeit the biggest)

So I wasn't HORRIBLY off as right now it's just WiiU and PS4 switched. I guess my biggest mistake was thinking the momentum of this gen would carry over to next gen. Wii buyers it turns out weren't all that loyal or enthusiastic. Of course Playstation turned out to be a lot stronger than I thought they'd be after PS3's shortcomings. Xbox box turned out to make far more mistakes than anyone could have predicted and as a result gifted a lot of Playstation sales before even announcing their surprisingly high price. Now Playstation is stronger than ever and Wii sales seem like a distant memory.

I knew it wouldn't nearly be as big as the Wii, but I still expected a decent success. :(

I think that will not be a FLOP at the end of gen, but yes, I hoped it would sell as PS3 (80-90 milion)...
For now, i hope Wii U will sold 40,000,000 on the end of gen, if they sell 50-60 milion would be a miracle.

I did predict it to flop. I was expecting no more than 50 million, but no way did i expect it to do as bad as it has been doing. Now i would be surprised if it managed 20 million.

i dont think i did, no. i didnt expect it to be a smash hit, but i was surprised by how low it went.

What's the question?  20k still seems too high or what?