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Forums - Sales - "The Console Market is Shrinking" is a BS Statement

 

The console market is

shrinking 98 43.36%
 
staying the same 52 23.01%
 
growing 74 32.74%
 
Total:224
Shaunaka on 18 April 2014
RolStoppable said:
Shaunaka said:

LOL. You really think so? It's cherry picking data at it's absolute best! The Wii was selling HALF A MILLION consoles all by itself!

Do I really have to make predictions? Didn't realize that making a thread implied I'd have to do that.

1) The article is working with the data that is available and pointing to future months not going to paint a different picture. With the trajectories the eighth generation systems are on, there's not much of a reason to disagree with that assertion.

2) Yes, you absolutely have to make such predictions when you make the claim that the console market isn't shrinking. Actually, you not only have to provide such numbers, you'll also have to explain (in a succinct manner) how each system is going to get there.


Just a last one in reply to that:

This thread is working with the data that is available and pointing to future generations not going to paint a different picture. With the trajectories gen over gen, there's not much of a reason to disagree with that assertion.

:P



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Shaunaka on 18 April 2014
Mummelmann said:

How is the console market not shrinking? How is this scenario of a flat industry growth curve coming to fruition? The DS has sold about 155 million and the PSP about 80 million, that's around 235 million right there. The Vita will be lucky to reach 25 million at this rate and closer to 20 seems more likely by the day. The 3DS is slowing down quickly and is set to sell 80 million max, as it stands, even the mega heavy hitters of 2013 couldn't keep it from plummeting and it's not like the Vita is the cause of the decline. A likely scenario puts total handheld combined sales at around 100 million then, that's a deficit of 135 million already.

The Wii U is obviously not going to sell anywhere near what the Wii has, and there will be another 80 million or so lost in total installed base there, bringing the total tally to around 215 million, that is the number the One and PS4 will probably have to fill up in order not to cause a market contraction, and all this is assuming base sales for both One and PS4 being the same total as the lifetime sales of the PS3 and 360, somewhere along the lines of 180 million combined. This means that the One and PS4 will need to sell about 400 million units combined to avoid a market contraction, how on earth is this in any way plausible in any universe known to man? With the One's current pace and likely future up-tick, this could leave more than 300 million in the PS4's court to be sold.

There is no possible way for the 8th gen not to suffer a contraction, let alone remain flat. You have to show us how the PS4, One, Wii U, 3DS and Vita will pull off this feat, this is your claim to the whole "contraction theory" being "BS" so the burden of evidence is on you in this case. My statement has actual and observable merit and is more or the consensus of the entire forum and most other forums and sites as well, and the industry itself seems painfully aware in addition to this.

Edit; OP, yes, you need to post some actual numbers, your whole thread "implies" that there needs to be some fantastic sales somewhere in the 8th gen. "Here, I'm gonna make a ridiculous statement for you all. What, I have to actually build an argument and present actual numbers to back up the statement?" Come on, this is ridiculous.


WOAH WOAH WOAH THERE COWBOY!

 

This is the very first indication at all of anyone including handhelds in any of those figures! My prediction is 100% that the dedicated videogame handheld market will shrink! That's an easy one! Please don't get people rallied up behind you with this!

exclamation mark!



Shaunaka on 18 April 2014
Mummelmann said:
RolStoppable said:

2) Yes, you absolutely have to make such predictions when you make the claim that the console market isn't shrinking. Actually, you not only have to provide such numbers, you'll also have to explain (in a succinct manner) how each system is going to get there.


Huzzah, more or less exactly what I'm thinking as well. If you make fantastic claims; you need to build a fantastic case for it.

I actually think it's going to be roughly equal to the last gen.

Which is fantastic to you?



Soleron on 18 April 2014

The industry's economic basis is rapid growth. Even no change from last gen will be catastrophic to AAA game profitability.



Shaunaka on 18 April 2014
RolStoppable said:
Shaunaka said:

Just a last one in reply to that:

This thread is working with the data that is available and pointing to future generations not going to paint a different picture. With the trajectories gen over gen, there's not much of a reason to disagree with that assertion.

:P

With your last set of replies it looks like you were willfully trolling right from the very start and just trying to see how far you can make it before it all comes to an end.


Fine.

"Definitely below generation 6. Maybe 170-180m in total, and that seems kinda generous. End of life sales of around 75-80m for the PS3 and 360 each and 10-15m for Nintendo's blunder. Without Wii, there would have been no motivation for Sony and Microsoft to create Move and Kinect, thus less attempts at diversity in their gaming libraries, thus lower lifetime sales for hardware."

PS3 and 360 combined is ALREADY above what you say the ENTIRE gen would have been if it wasn't for "Nintendo's blunder".

I'm sorry, but I don't know how to discuss things with you.



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theshonen8899 on 18 April 2014

Smartphones didn't have a major impact on gaming until after the Wii hit it's stride. Furthermore, the Wii artificially inflated the market by introducing casual gamers that don't consistently buy game consoles or games.

This is the first gen where we are actually seeing the true impact of mobile gaming. As unfathomable as it may seem to hardcore gamers that mobile and social could make that big of a difference, the reality is simply that anyone who could have spent time playing Call of Duty or Halo is now spending time on mobile.



Jumpin on 18 April 2014

It is largely the 8th generation. Right now the only reason PS4 has sold Wii in the same time period is due to Wii's supply issues. Now PS4 is quite a bit behind the Wii on weekly sales and will soon be lagging behind the Wii in the given time period.

On the handheld front, the DS dwarfs everything in the gaming console industry currently.

This generation overall seems like it is going to be much slower than previous generations, and I don't see it lasting as long either. There is good evidence to suggest that the next generation will begin as soon as 2.5 years from now.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Shaunaka on 18 April 2014
KingdomHeartsFan said:

I'm not even gonna go any further, you keep cherrypicking points and ignoring most of what I say.  Your Wii U and GC point doesn't even make any sense you have to look at each console individually when you predict the total sales of a generation.  You can't even justify why you think this generation is gonna sell more than the last.  

Don't go any further, that's fine, but I'm compelled to clarify:

" Your Wii U and GC point doesn't even make any sense you have to look at each console individually when you predict the total sales of a generation. "

From NES to SNES to N64 there was a drop each gen. Are we to assume that we should look at each company's specific product and measure it's growth!? Because there has never been any analysis like that by anyone ever that's been linked to the total sales of a generation.

For instance, from PS2->PS3 there was a decline, but the gen showed growth overall.

So there really is no argument at all.

I tried replying to each thing you said in the exact same manner as this, but you failed to appreciate my efforts. You say I cherripick points from what you say, but when there is a whole long paragraph to reply to then I very well can't write you a 300 word essay each time can I? No. Instead I choose what I deem to be the obvious mistakes you made in your reasoning and attempt to make a case for it.

As for this statment: " You can't even justify why you think this generation is gonna sell more than the last. ", this thread was specifically meant to indicate that the console market isn't shrinking. There is no doom and gloom on the horizon. It's healthy. Now if Nintendo decides to launch a new console in 2 years and MS pulls out early too then you can hardly come knocking on my door to tell me I was wrong because it's the essential statement: The Console Market isn't Shrinking, which is the most important of all.



Shaunaka on 18 April 2014
RolStoppable said:
Shaunaka said:
RolStoppable said:

With your last set of replies it looks like you were willfully trolling right from the very start and just trying to see how far you can make it before it all comes to an end.

Fine.

"Definitely below generation 6. Maybe 170-180m in total, and that seems kinda generous. End of life sales of around 75-80m for the PS3 and 360 each and 10-15m for Nintendo's blunder. Without Wii, there would have been no motivation for Sony and Microsoft to create Move and Kinect, thus less attempts at diversity in their gaming libraries, thus lower lifetime sales for hardware."

PS3 and 360 combined is ALREADY above what you say the ENTIRE gen would have been if it wasn't for "Nintendo's blunder".

I'm sorry, but I don't know how to discuss things with you.

Claiming that 81m + 80m = >180m doesn't help your case one bit.


True. Made a mistake there.



Player2 on 18 April 2014
Shaunaka said:
Mummelmann said:
RolStoppable said:
 

2) Yes, you absolutely have to make such predictions when you make the claim that the console market isn't shrinking. Actually, you not only have to provide such numbers, you'll also have to explain (in a succinct manner) how each system is going to get there.


Huzzah, more or less exactly what I'm thinking as well. If you make fantastic claims; you need to build a fantastic case for it.

I actually think it's going to be roughly equal to the last gen.

Which is fantastic to you?

PS4 making up for the lower sales Nintendo and Microsoft will see, unless you expect Ouya to save the day, then there's nothing to discuss.