KingdomHeartsFan said: This is the first gen the number is gonna go down. |
What evidence do you have to support this?
The console market is | |||
shrinking | 98 | 43.36% | |
staying the same | 52 | 23.01% | |
growing | 74 | 32.74% | |
Total: | 224 |
KingdomHeartsFan said: This is the first gen the number is gonna go down. |
What evidence do you have to support this?
Scoobes said:
I'm not just seperating them for the sake of seperating them, I'm looking at the causes and trends behind the numbers and according to your graph 32 million consoles is about the same as 2007 and about the same YOY growth. You realise though, that both sides of the argument, whilst somewhat logical are essentially plucked out of "thin air". Your reasoning that PS3 and 360 numbers improved because of the decline of the Wii for instance, is tantamount to guesswork as you're completely ignoring the effect of marketing, improved software libraries and added console features. The important factor is that there are currently more people gaming (not just consoles but all gaming devices) in 2014 than in 2006/2007. There's a huge potential market that the three can tap into if they market themselves correctly throughout the gen. Considering the PS4 is currently trending in-line with or better than the PS2 (albeit, not in Japan) and X1 is trending better than 360 (even though its released in less markets), even with few next-gen exclusives, so it's not a huge stretch to imagine them continuing throughout the gen. Now that might not happen, a lot can happen in 6-7 years time, but the early trends suggest it'll be fine for the rest of the gen. @ bolded That's a pretty snobbish viewpoint and one that does no favours for the games industry. There are good games available on mobiles and if any of these micro consoles become popular, you can expect plenty of good games to be released for them. If we all took that line of thinking then next we'll be questioning whether we should include the Wii numbers considering it was filled with shovelware. A micro-console that helps expand the audience is still a console. |
My graphic doesn't consider PS2, so you can count on 14M difference between 2007 and 2014 (by your logic). And that is a very significant decline.
Marketing, improved software libraries and added console features didn't prevent most of consoles (of the entire videogame history) to have their peak on the 2nd year and decline after that. PS3 and X360 had their peak on the 5th year. Don't you think that's odd (putting aside the Wii's premature death)? How could you explain that?
Then you talk about PS4 and XOne and forget about WiiU. I know it's not convinient (to whom is denying a shrinking market) to see the whole scenario but you need to see it. That's why I insist on the aggregated values. That way you can't just pick up what's best to take the conclusions you want.
I didn't say there are no good games for smartphones, just that it's not what we commonly see. And that's right: we should be questioning whether to include Wii numbers because it was not a console like the others, it did not continue the evolution of gaming (unlike the others) and it was dominated by shovelware (unlike the others). Actually, as far as I know, Wii was the first console in history to be launched with old tech. Now it's arguable whether to consider it inside of the market (as many stakeholders considered it as being on a different market) but to include smartphones it's out of question (at least for me). Next you want to consider Pocket Boy and tamagotchi. Please, I know where this leads to.
Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 70M WiiU: 25M
Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 50M WiiU: 18M
Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 90M XOne: 40M WiiU: 15M Switch: 20M
Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 110M XOne: 50M WiiU: 14M Switch: 65M
Zod95 said:
Because it's hard to estimate the result of massive - large + slight. When you separate, you lose focus and you can easily be trapped in qualitative assessments that cannot be summed or compared. |
I don't think we can estimate the total market, or the market shares of the consoles, without looking at the separate trends and factors affecting each console.
I'd love to see a quantitative model that would correclty predict Wii U will sell ~20 million less than Wii in the first 17 months.
I'm not saying let's estimate "massive - large + slight.". Think of it as "outperform", "underperform", "market perform", terms used in analyst guidance.
sales2099 said:
Relative to PS4.....but you completely missed how it is outperforming its predessor at $100-$200 price difference. 360 sold for $299 and $399 respectively. People, such as you, tend to overlook this. |
You are kidding right?
No? Okay, let me explain.
When you ONLY look at the numbers, you, tend to overlook things. The Xbox is in deep deep trouble.
According to VGC, the Xbox One has "only" sold 4.259.444 million units in 21 weeks, that is by no means bad, when you compare it to its predecessor (Xbox 360) which didn't sell as many units in the same time frame, but Xbox One's numbes aren't great either, if you ask me.
1. Of those 4.259.444 million units sold, 1.106.779 was sold in its launch week, that is 25.98 %. Now, what does that tell you?
2. Of those 4.259.444 million units sold, 3.073.662 was sold in 2013 (7 weeks), that is 72.16 %. Now, what does that tell you?
3. Of those 4.259.444 million units sold, 1.185.782 was sold in 2014 (14 weeks), that is 27.84 %. Now, what does that tell you?
Bonus
1. 1.106.779 million in (1 week)
2. 1.185.782 million in (14 weeks)
This ain't no joke.
Overall consoles sales are down YOY every year since 2009 (no wonder people were talking about this in 2012). So far this year the trend still continues, although PS4 is making good numbers.
The market is struggling in getting new consumers and in bringing "casuals" gamers back.
The numbers are there to show what´s really going on, like it or not.
LordLichtenstein said:
You are kidding right? |
No the Joke is your propaganda.
This ain't the WiiU. X1 is selling just fine on its own steam given its price and 13 countries.
sales2099 said:
No the Joke is your propaganda. This ain't the WiiU. X1 is selling just fine on its own steam given its price and 13 countries. |
A classic case of complete denial.
How is it propaganda? They are numbers, they facts, they are ... Oh, forget it, you can't be reasoned with.
LordLichtenstein said:
A classic case of complete denial. |
Ya, numbers. X1 outselling 360 in same timeframe in 13 countries at $100-$200 price difference. Don't know how to make this any simpler. You are talking like its the WiiU.
sales2099 said:
Ya, numbers. X1 outselling 360 in same timeframe in 13 countries at $100-$200 price difference. Don't know how to make this any simpler. You are talking like its the WiiU. |
You really don't get it do you..
LordLichtenstein said:
You really don't get it do you.. |
Neither do you. Agree to disagree...and that the X1 isn't as bad as WiiU ;)