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Forums - Politics - Obama: Ignoring Russian Aggression Would Have Global Consequences

 

What does Obama hope to accomplish? alterior motive?

I will post below. 29 14.29%
 
To calm the situation down 67 33.00%
 
See results 100 49.26%
 
Total:196
Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
 

 

Are you joking ? Your opinion poll was in May. After that there was some kind of civil war, governement flew, some fascists came to power and start discussing about removing russian from official languages. So it certainly did change a lot, I mean that much.


So much so that basically every Ukranian AND a lot of the Tatars who voted... voted to join Russia?

The Crimeans said 40% of Tatars voted... which alone would be ~5% of the vote.



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Kasz216 said:
Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
 

 

Are you joking ? Your opinion poll was in May. After that there was some kind of civil war, governement flew, some fascists came to power and start discussing about removing russian from official languages. So it certainly did change a lot, I mean that much.


So much so that basically every Ukranian AND a lot of the Tatars who voted... voted to join Russia?

The Crimeans said 40% of Tatars voted... which alone would be ~5% of the vote.

First point, I'm not arguing that 97% is correct, I'm telling than your poll is before this events, and that is meaningless for a comparison or trend. So you can't tell it could not change that much, because it could... in fact it should change a lot. As an exemple, stats about pro and anti war before and after pearl harbor totally changed in the USA. So you are just not proving your point with your pre-event poll.

What happens is that Ukrainians as a whole voted for a pro-Russia governement. Right now, Ukraine is a mess. The economy is bad, the governement is not elected and is suspected for a part to be fascist, their is a push against minorities (regional language rights), it just had a civil-war, Russia is pushing, Europe is doing nothing, gazolin prices got higher, and there are high doubts about the pension system.

So Russia offers stability, security, higher and guaranted pensions, some money right now, expensive development projects, debt cancel, growth and a cheaper gazolin... or to go back to the mess Ukraine is. Could you think it's an offer good enough for your assumption that most Tatar (within the 40%) are voting against it to be false ?

We can argue about it but my real point, my second point is : with this offer and a large majority of russian... what ever the percent is, Russia would win by referendum, right ? What do you think a realistic percent would be ? 70% ? What does it change ?



nanarchy said:
Eddie_Raja said:
nanarchy said:
Eddie_Raja said:
Norris2k said:
Eddie_Raja said:
Honestly this whole situation is gonna have massive repercussions. If Russia presses any further into the Ukraine, and Europe doesn't actually try to stop them, the whole EU system could come tumbling down...

Can we really blame Russia on that ? I mean Europe have no common politic system and army, members have a dropping military budget, they went to so many unpopular wars. At their very border, their stance is so weak. Even internally... I mean Greece is not even 3% of the population and GDP of Europe, and it's such a big deal...

You can't even blame the barbarian for the crumbling and decadent Rome, so can we blame Russia whic is very reasonnable compared to barbarian and US : get at its border a territory with a majority of russian by referendum, without pillage and even war. I think were they are very reasonnable is that they are pushing so far only were they have a predictible and secure outcome.

Europe made itself in a position where it seems it will not say anything, and that's why it could happen, and that's what make the situation dangerous. If Europe has to stop Russia, we are in a crazy shitty situation, Europe have to make this situation not happen.

It's really hard to understand what you are trying to say.  Yes we can blame Russia.  Putin wants to return Russia to its super-power glory days where the world actually cared about what they said.  I get that, and it makes sense.

However Putin just squandered any legetimacy he had in Europe.  He is now, and forever will be seen as a crazy dictator.  If he had just shown some constraint and let the Ukraine sort itself out, Russia would have looked "Grown-Up" and people would truly take Russia seriously.

He did show restraint, far more restraint than what I would have expected. He was faced with a previous close ally, which holds critical infrastructure for his country, undergoing a revolution that has installed an anti russian government. He could have done far far worse, instead he simply acively supported one part of the revolution in crimea, similiar to what EU is doing in the rest of Ukraine. I find it amusing that one side of the revolution is considered good and pure even though it was done by force while the other half is an evil violation of international law though it was done via a bloodless democratic decision.  

Please.  Europe did not deploy soldiers into the Ukraine.  If Crimea wants to become part of Russia that is fine.  But Russia clearly violated international law when it sent in its soldiers.  (I am currently studdying international law, this is not an opinion).

Actually it most definitely IS an opinion as it all hinges on the legitimacy of the current ukrainian government which is arguably non existant as such Crimea can be said to have been within there rights to invite in the Russian Army (who actually were already within Crimea anyway).

Yeah I know it is debatible whether or not it was wrong for Russia to send in troops.  However it was illegal for them to order the Ukrainian soldiers to leave with an ultimatum.  An ultimatum signals a declaration of war under international custom law.  You would know this if you studied it, but you don't.  Still you and others will continue to spout nonsense...



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

Rab said:
Captain_Tom said:
mutantsushi said:
Rab said:

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

LOL some people just make me laugh so much.  Yeah, the Kosovo situation is just like the Crimean one!

Yeah, Russia hasn't bombed any cities


Yeah the Ukrainians aren't commiting Genocide.  Dear lord do you people live on the same planet as the rest of us?



Captain_Tom said:
Rab said:
Captain_Tom said:
mutantsushi said:
Rab said:

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

LOL some people just make me laugh so much.  Yeah, the Kosovo situation is just like the Crimean one!

Yeah, Russia hasn't bombed any cities


Yeah the Ukrainians aren't commiting Genocide.  Dear lord do you people live on the same planet as the rest of us?

So, being genocided is a prerequisite before such action is taken ? Is it based on an international regulation or law ? "Sorry you are not dead enough, it would be illegal".



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Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
 

 

 

 


First point, I'm not arguing that 97% is correct, I'm telling than your poll is before this events, and that is meaningless for a comparison or trend. So you can't tell it could not change that much, because it could... in fact it should change a lot. As an exemple, stats about pro and anti war before and after pearl harbor totally changed in the USA. So you are just not proving your point with your pre-event poll.

What happens is that Ukrainians as a whole voted for a pro-Russia governement. Right now, Ukraine is a mess. The economy is bad, the governement is not elected and is suspected for a part to be fascist, their is a push against minorities (regional language rights), it just had a civil-war, Russia is pushing, Europe is doing nothing, gazolin prices got higher, and there are high doubts about the pension system.

So Russia offers stability, security, higher and guaranted pensions, some money right now, expensive development projects, debt cancel, growth and a cheaper gazolin... or to go back to the mess Ukraine is. Could you think it's an offer good enough for your assumption that most Tatar (within the 40%) are voting against it to be false ?

We can argue about it but my real point, my second point is : with this offer and a large majority of russian... what ever the percent is, Russia would win by referendum, right ? What do you think a realistic percent would be ? 70% ? What does it change ?

No, I generally don't think there is enough money in the world to erase the fears of ethnic cleansing and the memories of the past.   Russia is the country that threatens the stability of the tatars.

 

As for what the voting percentage changes?  A whole lot.

Afterall, they wouldn't of bothered to fix it to be a higher percentage anyway right?

 

The specific Tatar fears are one of them.  That's why they specifically mention tatar voting percentages.  It's to try and cover up Tatar fears of genocide.

Also, it wasn't that 40% of Tatar's voted to join russia.  It's that 40% of tatars voted.

So it'd be more that a MAJORITY of Tatars voted to join Russia.

A very high majority if you assume everyone didn't vote.  Which is actually probably the case even with a vote as important as it.

 

Though even 70% does seem high.  60-65% seems about right.



Eddie_Raja said:
nanarchy said:
Eddie_Raja said:
nanarchy said:
Eddie_Raja said:
Norris2k said:
Eddie_Raja said:
Honestly this whole situation is gonna have massive repercussions. If Russia presses any further into the Ukraine, and Europe doesn't actually try to stop them, the whole EU system could come tumbling down...

Can we really blame Russia on that ? I mean Europe have no common politic system and army, members have a dropping military budget, they went to so many unpopular wars. At their very border, their stance is so weak. Even internally... I mean Greece is not even 3% of the population and GDP of Europe, and it's such a big deal...

You can't even blame the barbarian for the crumbling and decadent Rome, so can we blame Russia whic is very reasonnable compared to barbarian and US : get at its border a territory with a majority of russian by referendum, without pillage and even war. I think were they are very reasonnable is that they are pushing so far only were they have a predictible and secure outcome.

Europe made itself in a position where it seems it will not say anything, and that's why it could happen, and that's what make the situation dangerous. If Europe has to stop Russia, we are in a crazy shitty situation, Europe have to make this situation not happen.

It's really hard to understand what you are trying to say.  Yes we can blame Russia.  Putin wants to return Russia to its super-power glory days where the world actually cared about what they said.  I get that, and it makes sense.

However Putin just squandered any legetimacy he had in Europe.  He is now, and forever will be seen as a crazy dictator.  If he had just shown some constraint and let the Ukraine sort itself out, Russia would have looked "Grown-Up" and people would truly take Russia seriously.

He did show restraint, far more restraint than what I would have expected. He was faced with a previous close ally, which holds critical infrastructure for his country, undergoing a revolution that has installed an anti russian government. He could have done far far worse, instead he simply acively supported one part of the revolution in crimea, similiar to what EU is doing in the rest of Ukraine. I find it amusing that one side of the revolution is considered good and pure even though it was done by force while the other half is an evil violation of international law though it was done via a bloodless democratic decision.  

Please.  Europe did not deploy soldiers into the Ukraine.  If Crimea wants to become part of Russia that is fine.  But Russia clearly violated international law when it sent in its soldiers.  (I am currently studdying international law, this is not an opinion).

Actually it most definitely IS an opinion as it all hinges on the legitimacy of the current ukrainian government which is arguably non existant as such Crimea can be said to have been within there rights to invite in the Russian Army (who actually were already within Crimea anyway).

Yeah I know it is debatible whether or not it was wrong for Russia to send in troops.  However it was illegal for them to order the Ukrainian soldiers to leave with an ultimatum.  An ultimatum signals a declaration of war under international custom law.  You would know this if you studied it, but you don't.  Still you and others will continue to spout nonsense...

Sorry but no. As russia's occupation there is debatible, so is the decision to order them to leave. If assume that the ukrainian government is illegitimate then Crimea government being the only legitmate government (and by extension Russia) do absolutely have the right to order them to leave. I don't study law, but I fortunately/unfortunately work with a whole room full of people that do.



Norris2k said:
Captain_Tom said:
Rab said:
Captain_Tom said:
mutantsushi said:
Rab said:

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

LOL some people just make me laugh so much.  Yeah, the Kosovo situation is just like the Crimean one!

Yeah, Russia hasn't bombed any cities


Yeah the Ukrainians aren't commiting Genocide.  Dear lord do you people live on the same planet as the rest of us?

So, being genocided is a prerequisite before such action is taken ? Is it based on an international regulation or law ? "Sorry you are not dead enough, it would be illegal".

Pretty much.

If you'll note, the main protests for the actions in Kosovo are to doubt the ethnic cleansing, argueing that it didn't happen.

Outside which, that's an actual you know... differentiation point.

and definitly a more credible position then "ceding due to ethnic cleansing, no....edeing to join us... yes."

(Not that such a thing is actual Russia's position.)



At least now Ukraine have a decent candidate for president elections...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10736246/Darth-Vader-to-run-for-election-in-Ukraines-presidential-race.html



We can argue all day about who has the moral and or legal high ground in this case and cases in the past but when it comes down to it, it is simply a matter of real politik. Russia has interests in Ukraine and is willing to do what it takes to preserve them.

The west rolled the dice when they supported the coup in Kiev in spite of the fact that they had previously backed an agreement between the then Ukranian government and the opposition. It was extremely foolhardy to believe that Russia would stand idly by while a coup installed anti Russian government came to power in Ukraine and then was deemed legitimate by the west.
The fact that the west is seemingly determined to push NATO right on Russia's border and crossing the proverbial red line by attempting to incorporate the Ukraine into a military alliance designed to contain Russia made the Russian reaction totally predictable if not necessarily legal.

So here we stand unfortunately on the precipace of a major confrontation in Europe and one which should never have even come close to this point. Personally I think that Ukraine is not a fundemental interest of the west and they should recognise that it is Russia's red line. Unless they want to risk sparking a conflict in continental Europe the western powers should pursue a compromise agreement with Russia and should not be playing a zero sum game where the benefits are totally outweighed by the risks.

My 2 cents.