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Forums - Politics - Obama: Ignoring Russian Aggression Would Have Global Consequences

 

What does Obama hope to accomplish? alterior motive?

I will post below. 29 14.29%
 
To calm the situation down 67 33.00%
 
See results 100 49.26%
 
Total:196

It did prevent the complete annihilation of a group of people.   To be clear, you don't think it was ok for NATO to stop the Serbians from murdering hundreds of thousands of their people?

12,000 Albanian civilians were massacred and there was a mass rape of women in captured cities.  This only stopped when NATO intervened.  Are you honestly saying this was wrong?

Anyone who compares the situation in the Ukraine to the events of Kosovo is making a mockery of the thousands of graves filled with innocent people in that region.

The problem is both the jump and the conclusion, when you go from stopping atrocity and the genocide of 12,000 people to "we can bomb anything in your whole country, reduce it to middle-age, to the point you accept your only option that is to accept total independance, and just by a referendum within this independant region with an hostile foreign ethnic majority you lose it forever".

So here in Ukraine, lots of minister claim there root to be in the Nazi party that is guilty of the extermination of 6 millions judes (and so many other people based on race), invasion of Russia, and the claim that slavian are sub-people.

That's different starting point, no one yet killed. 12,000 people murdered is horrible. Even 1 person. But in term of magnitude, 12,000 is far nearer to zero or to an accident than to a mass systematic genocide of millions that made the word genocide and any claim to be nazy horrible. So, you have a similar situation like "prevention of genocide" on going, and if you jump to the same unilateral conclusion, except for the bombing it's a pretty similar pattern.


I honestly cannot make out what you are saying.  No offense, but you need to work on your English a little.  (Seriously I am not trying to insult you, it's just a fact.)



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Branko2166 said:
We can argue all day about who has the moral and or legal high ground in this case and cases in the past but when it comes down to it, it is simply a matter of real politik. Russia has interests in Ukraine and is willing to do what it takes to preserve them.

The west rolled the dice when they supported the coup in Kiev in spite of the fact that they had previously backed an agreement between the then Ukranian government and the opposition. It was extremely foolhardy to believe that Russia would stand idly by while a coup installed anti Russian government came to power in Ukraine and then was deemed legitimate by the west.
The fact that the west is seemingly determined to push NATO right on Russia's border and crossing the proverbial red line by attempting to incorporate the Ukraine into a military alliance designed to contain Russia made the Russian reaction totally predictable if not necessarily legal.

So here we stand unfortunately on the precipace of a major confrontation in Europe and one which should never have even come close to this point. Personally I think that Ukraine is not a fundemental interest of the west and they should recognise that it is Russia's red line. Unless they want to risk sparking a conflict in continental Europe the western powers should pursue a compromise agreement with Russia and should not be playing a zero sum game where the benefits are totally outweighed by the risks.

My 2 cents.

This brings up a lot of good points, and is a valid argument.  However I have to point out that letting Russia do this could cause NATO and the EU to lose all recognition.  

Russia (And some other countries for that matter) have been making fun of how the US/EU never follows through on its threats for a while now.  The difference this time is that Russia is actively testing if we will do anything about it.  It isn't just posturing anymore.

Unless we respond in kind, the West's legitimacy is forfeit.  I see three clear turning points that this situation can produce, and how I believe the West must respond:

1) Russia Invades Crimea and takes it from the Ukraine.  The West sanctions Russia and bans them from a few things (What is currently happening).

2) Russia invades all of the Ukraine Illegally.  The West really turns on the screws and throws every sanction and asset freezing they can at them.  Georgia is put on the track to being part of Nato, and the West moves away from as many Russian resources as it can.

3) Russia invades other countries along with the Ukraine (Poland, Georgia, or something else).  The West launches missile strikes and investigates a ground war with Russia  (Unlikely to happen unless China agrees to sit this one out).



Captain_Tom said:
nanarchy said:

Please.  Europe did not deploy soldiers into the Ukraine.  If Crimea wants to become part of Russia that is fine.  But Russia clearly violated international law when it sent in its soldiers.  (I am currently studdying international law, this is not an opinion).

Actually it most definitely IS an opinion as it all hinges on the legitimacy of the current ukrainian government which is arguably non existant as such Crimea can be said to have been within there rights to invite in the Russian Army (who actually were already within Crimea anyway).

Yeah I know it is debatible whether or not it was wrong for Russia to send in troops.  However it was illegal for them to order the Ukrainian soldiers to leave with an ultimatum.  An ultimatum signals a declaration of war under international custom law.  You would know this if you studied it, but you don't.  Still you and others will continue to spout nonsense...

Sorry but no. As russia's occupation there is debatible, so is the decision to order them to leave. If assume that the ukrainian government is illegitimate then Crimea government being the only legitmate government (and by extension Russia) do absolutely have the right to order them to leave. I don't study law, but I fortunately/unfortunately work with a whole room full of people that do.

Omg people.  The government of the Ukraine is not illegitimate.  The ex-president of the Ukraine was legally impeached following Ukraine's constitution.  

Also you gave no reason why "If Russia's intervention is debatible, then so is them ordering a country out of its own land."  They are two very different things.  At first Russia could argue that they were there to make sure the people of the Crimea were not under threat of violence.  However they never were, and the Ukrainian soldiers out of the area was completily pre-mature.

You know the ICJ is there for a reason.  This is the type of thing they handle.  It was not Russia's call, and they had no right to do it.

The impeachment did not follow the legal requirements under the constitution which requires an investigation by an appointed commission and a review by the constitutional court, you can't legally impeach the president by a simple vote, hence why it most definitely can be argued that the current government is illegitimate. It is unfortunate that both Russia and Ukraine have been pretty aweful and carefully following procedures hence from a legal standpoint neither side has a clearcut legal standing. The only way you can come to a standpoint that one side is completely legal or illegal is if you ignore a great many facts.



Kasz216 said: 

1)  The chart you posted wasn't a poll of Transnistra citizens opinions.   It was a poll of the Moldovian citizens on the future of TMR.

Note how it says Moldova there... and note how other polls either say Modolva or TMR based on who was polled.

A similar poll would be if you asked what all Ukrainians outside Crimea thought should be the future of Moldovia.

So Moldovians outside of TMR, wanted TMR to leave about as much as Crimean's were polled to want Crimea to leave.

It even gives sample sizes separately for Moldavia and TMR, I gave you link to PDF, didn't I?



Kasz216 said: 

2) The poll in 2006 wasn't 98% in favor or joining russia.   It was a two part split refferendum with two optionss

 

1)  Renounce independence and possibly get rid of autonomy.

2)  Stay Independent and maybe later join Russa.

There's no "maybe" or anything, it was exactly about joining Russia or Moldavia -- this is as close to Crimenian referendum as you can get, that was independent for 1-2 days afair. TMR is de-facto independent already, the question was about who will they join.

Here you go:

Original: Поддерживаете ли Вы курс на независимость Приднестровской Молдавской Республики и последующее свободное присоединение Приднестровья к Российской Федерации?

Word by word translation: Do you support Transnistrian Moldavian Republic independence policy, followed by free joining of Transnistria to the Russian Federation?

Yes 98% 

Original: Считаете ли Вы возможным отказ от независимости Приднестровской Молдавской Республики с последующим вхождением Приднестровья в состав Республики Молдова?

Word by word translation: Do you consider renouncing Transnistrian Moldovan Republic independence possible, followed by joining of Transnistria to the Republic of Moldova?

No 96%

Do not try  to be semantic Nazi here.



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Captain_Tom said:

You think that's ok?  (If it's true).   Also I said they were following the 2004 constitution that allowed it.

 Really?

Стаття 111. Президент України може бути усунений з поста Верховною Радою України в порядку імпічменту у разі вчинення ним державної зради або іншого злочину.

(положенню частини першої статті 111 дано офіційне тлумачення згідно з Рішенням Конституційного Суду України від 10.12.2003 р. N 19-рп/2003)

Питання про усунення Президента України з поста в порядку імпічменту ініціюється більшістю від конституційного складу (1) Верховної Ради України.

Для проведення розслідування Верховна Рада України створює спеціальну тимчасову слідчу комісію, до складу якої включаються спеціальний прокурор і спеціальні слідчі.

Висновки і пропозиції тимчасової слідчої комісії розглядаються на засіданні Верховної Ради України.

За наявності підстав Верховна Рада України не менш як двома третинами від її конституційного складу (2) приймає рішення про звинувачення Президента України.

Рішення про усунення Президента України з поста в порядку імпічменту приймається Верховною Радою України не менш як трьома четвертими від її конституційного складу (3) після перевірки справи Конституційним Судом України (4) і отримання його висновку щодо додержання конституційної процедури розслідування і розгляду справи про імпічмент та отримання висновку Верховного Суду України про те, що діяння, в яких звинувачується Президент України, містять ознаки державної зради або іншого злочину.

Source

1) check
2) check 
3) not check, they were tad short to have the constitutional majority for that
4) not check, and we all know what happened to Constitutional Court of Ukraine just couple of days later?

And I'm not even touching the subject of how much legality does threatening deputies so they vote "correctly" adds to the whole process. Not that talks about legality in general change smth in real politik. Almost quoting Sashko Bilyi: "Who has the gun -- has the legitimacy" :D Apparently someone had bigger "legitimacy" than Sashko, because recently he was shot dead.



I don't like Obama, but still saying Mr. Obama instead of President Obama sounds disrespectful IMO.



Captain_Tom said:
Branko2166 said:
We can argue all day about who has the moral and or legal high ground in this case and cases in the past but when it comes down to it, it is simply a matter of real politik. Russia has interests in Ukraine and is willing to do what it takes to preserve them.

The west rolled the dice when they supported the coup in Kiev in spite of the fact that they had previously backed an agreement between the then Ukranian government and the opposition. It was extremely foolhardy to believe that Russia would stand idly by while a coup installed anti Russian government came to power in Ukraine and then was deemed legitimate by the west.
The fact that the west is seemingly determined to push NATO right on Russia's border and crossing the proverbial red line by attempting to incorporate the Ukraine into a military alliance designed to contain Russia made the Russian reaction totally predictable if not necessarily legal.

So here we stand unfortunately on the precipace of a major confrontation in Europe and one which should never have even come close to this point. Personally I think that Ukraine is not a fundemental interest of the west and they should recognise that it is Russia's red line. Unless they want to risk sparking a conflict in continental Europe the western powers should pursue a compromise agreement with Russia and should not be playing a zero sum game where the benefits are totally outweighed by the risks.

My 2 cents.

This brings up a lot of good points, and is a valid argument.  However I have to point out that letting Russia do this could cause NATO and the EU to lose all recognition.  

Russia (And some other countries for that matter) have been making fun of how the US/EU never follows through on its threats for a while now.  The difference this time is that Russia is actively testing if we will do anything about it.  It isn't just posturing anymore.

Unless we respond in kind, the West's legitimacy is forfeit.  I see three clear turning points that this situation can produce, and how I believe the West must respond:

1) Russia Invades Crimea and takes it from the Ukraine.  The West sanctions Russia and bans them from a few things (What is currently happening).

2) Russia invades all of the Ukraine Illegally.  The West really turns on the screws and throws every sanction and asset freezing they can at them.  Georgia is put on the track to being part of Nato, and the West moves away from as many Russian resources as it can.

3) Russia invades other countries along with the Ukraine (Poland, Georgia, or something else).  The West launches missile strikes and investigates a ground war with Russia  (Unlikely to happen unless China agrees to sit this one out).

I see where you're coming from but I disagee that NATO would lose credibility due to the simple fact that the Ukraine is not a member state. I know that NATO has plans to incorporate Ukraine at some point but that's a seperate issue.

As it stands right now I think both sides have a bit of room for manoeuvre. At the moment Russia is pushing for a federalised Ukranian state. What this means is that the central government would have less power but it would ensure the preservation of the current territory of the state not counting the Crimea. This could be something where there can be a middle ground. Hopefully they can all agree that Ukraine will continue to be an independent neutral buffer state.

Problem is that the coup installed western backed government does not appear to want to compromise in which case I can see Russia invading the Russian speaking eastern and southern regions. The economic situation in Ukraine is another reason why the EU would have issues bringing in Ukraine into their economic sphere. 

As for Russia invading other countries it's not gonna happen any time soon. Most are in NATO and with regards to Georgia, Russia has already managed to get what they want. They have ensured that as long as Georgia has territorial outstanding issues (South Ossetia, Abkhazia)  they will be in perpetual limbo with regards to entering NATO.

I think when it comes down to it NATO will not try to intervene if Russia does invade other parts or even the entirety of Ukraine. Sure there would be more sanctions and a media propaganda shitstorm but the bottom line is that the Ukraine is not worth fighting over for the west.

I'm hoping for the best but I don't see Russia backing down because as they see it they are being cornered and they would rather make a stand now before they are completely boxed in and have NATO forces even closer to their capital. 



 

 

Kasz216 said:

1.  Because the refferendum will lose.   Hence why Cameron's original response was basiallly "Lets hol it tommorrow" and the SNP pushed it off.

It's just a political move to embaress the SNP.

Unless you can tell the future (I sure as hell can't!), I'm not sure if anyone should write off any future referendum result. Just because a poll says something, it don't mean shit. The actual results of the independence referendum (on the day) is what matters. I see it being very close. 

2.  Except it wasn't even disguised as anything.

Well if they were intent on annexing a region, wouldn't they have just done it? Rather than try and make it look like it was approved by the general population. The Russians were in Sevastopol anyway (a military base leased to them by Ukraine) and were actually 'invited' over by former president Yakanovich (or however you spell it). On that basis, i'm not sure if it was really an invasion to begin with. But, I'm just going to accept the will of the Crimean people. Ukraine itself is a very polarised nation (split between Russia and EU supporters). The west may say Crimea was rigged, but with so many Russian speaking people there in the first place, the result was obvious. They didn't come over night. 

 

3.   Only like ~100,000 people died...  Which is a small number compaired to the general pile of bodies generated by stalin's soviet Russia.

still I'm not sure if losing between 30-50% of an enthic population due to ethnic cleansing counts as "not a big" deal.

Just because something isn't your fight doesn't mean you have to support it, or want people to support it.

Show me a source please because i have never heard of this. 

That said, ethnic cleansing sort of is our buisness international law wise.  Even though rarely anything is done about it... and i'd think it's fair to argue that more then a majority vote should be needed for a group of people who suffered such penalties to be forced back into the nation that committed those acts on them.  Espiecially when they themselves are overwhelmingly against it, and a large portion of those who inflicted it opon them just so happen to ethnically be the poeple who inflicted it opon them.

The only thing that makes this "not our buisness" so to speak, is that Russia is fairly powerful.  That's a fine arguement to make, it's logical, but it should be made honestly.  It's not a matter of the US and UK "not bein a hypocrite because of iraq", or "Democratic majority."

There's plenty of wrong doing in the world beside Russia but why should it be left up to us to sort it out. Why are we that arrogant that we even think we can sort out everyone else's problems? Especially when the west likely caused today's problems by imposing empires on the less fortunate places of the world.

We are good at starting wars but crap at bring a long and prosperous peace to places we invaded like Iraq and Afghanistan, no matter our intentions.  Not like we could afford yet another war (partly why I think we stayed out of Syria) or that the public would appreciate a war when we are told to cut back on everything. 

It's just cowardice and being selfish.

Which is fine, I wouldn't start a war with Russia either.

That said, I'm not going to pretend to give false morality for the "brave" decision to basically ignore the whoe thing... or even worse, dump on the guy for basically ignoring the situation but at least mentioning so displeasure about the situation.

Where i'm from you blame people for hypocritical bad acts, and cheer them for hypocritical good ones.

The Modern era of no major wars basically boils politics to a game of "who got there first".





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Captain_Tom said:
Rab said:
Captain_Tom said:
mutantsushi said:
Rab said:

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

LOL some people just make me laugh so much.  Yeah, the Kosovo situation is just like the Crimean one!

Yeah, Russia hasn't bombed any cities


Yeah the Ukrainians aren't commiting Genocide.  Dear lord do you people live on the same planet as the rest of us?


Yeah, and the ethnic Russians aren't waging a gorilla war on Ukrainia, with supplies, training, and encouragment from a super power