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Branko2166 on 03 April 2014
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Captain_Tom said:
Branko2166 said:
We can argue all day about who has the moral and or legal high ground in this case and cases in the past but when it comes down to it, it is simply a matter of real politik. Russia has interests in Ukraine and is willing to do what it takes to preserve them.

The west rolled the dice when they supported the coup in Kiev in spite of the fact that they had previously backed an agreement between the then Ukranian government and the opposition. It was extremely foolhardy to believe that Russia would stand idly by while a coup installed anti Russian government came to power in Ukraine and then was deemed legitimate by the west.
The fact that the west is seemingly determined to push NATO right on Russia's border and crossing the proverbial red line by attempting to incorporate the Ukraine into a military alliance designed to contain Russia made the Russian reaction totally predictable if not necessarily legal.

So here we stand unfortunately on the precipace of a major confrontation in Europe and one which should never have even come close to this point. Personally I think that Ukraine is not a fundemental interest of the west and they should recognise that it is Russia's red line. Unless they want to risk sparking a conflict in continental Europe the western powers should pursue a compromise agreement with Russia and should not be playing a zero sum game where the benefits are totally outweighed by the risks.

My 2 cents.

This brings up a lot of good points, and is a valid argument.  However I have to point out that letting Russia do this could cause NATO and the EU to lose all recognition.  

Russia (And some other countries for that matter) have been making fun of how the US/EU never follows through on its threats for a while now.  The difference this time is that Russia is actively testing if we will do anything about it.  It isn't just posturing anymore.

Unless we respond in kind, the West's legitimacy is forfeit.  I see three clear turning points that this situation can produce, and how I believe the West must respond:

1) Russia Invades Crimea and takes it from the Ukraine.  The West sanctions Russia and bans them from a few things (What is currently happening).

2) Russia invades all of the Ukraine Illegally.  The West really turns on the screws and throws every sanction and asset freezing they can at them.  Georgia is put on the track to being part of Nato, and the West moves away from as many Russian resources as it can.

3) Russia invades other countries along with the Ukraine (Poland, Georgia, or something else).  The West launches missile strikes and investigates a ground war with Russia  (Unlikely to happen unless China agrees to sit this one out).

I see where you're coming from but I disagee that NATO would lose credibility due to the simple fact that the Ukraine is not a member state. I know that NATO has plans to incorporate Ukraine at some point but that's a seperate issue.

As it stands right now I think both sides have a bit of room for manoeuvre. At the moment Russia is pushing for a federalised Ukranian state. What this means is that the central government would have less power but it would ensure the preservation of the current territory of the state not counting the Crimea. This could be something where there can be a middle ground. Hopefully they can all agree that Ukraine will continue to be an independent neutral buffer state.

Problem is that the coup installed western backed government does not appear to want to compromise in which case I can see Russia invading the Russian speaking eastern and southern regions. The economic situation in Ukraine is another reason why the EU would have issues bringing in Ukraine into their economic sphere. 

As for Russia invading other countries it's not gonna happen any time soon. Most are in NATO and with regards to Georgia, Russia has already managed to get what they want. They have ensured that as long as Georgia has territorial outstanding issues (South Ossetia, Abkhazia)  they will be in perpetual limbo with regards to entering NATO.

I think when it comes down to it NATO will not try to intervene if Russia does invade other parts or even the entirety of Ukraine. Sure there would be more sanctions and a media propaganda shitstorm but the bottom line is that the Ukraine is not worth fighting over for the west.

I'm hoping for the best but I don't see Russia backing down because as they see it they are being cornered and they would rather make a stand now before they are completely boxed in and have NATO forces even closer to their capital.