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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global HW+SW, week ending 3/22.

HipHopGodd on 27 March 2014

Who would buy a PS4 to play Infamous? It got an 8/10 Metacritic rating. Overhyped trash!



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DerNebel on 27 March 2014
ethomaz said:

DerNebel said:

That's an assumption, it might be true but we don't know that for sure.

I used official lifetime numbers to get 87% * we have Australia, Italy, Spain, Brazil, etc... some are 2012 and others 2013 but it shows the 13 countries accounts for over 87% of the sales for 360 *... so I don't think these assumption are wrong .

We do? Serious question, I can't seem to find any recent numbers from these areas.



Dark_Feanor on 27 March 2014
ethomaz said:

Dark_Feanor said:

DerNelbel said those 13 markets represents 80% of WW market, so I did just a fast math extrapolation.

But, it was the 50 markets + pricing at at most $450, then 5,5mi would be esealy achievable.

360 sold 80m by VGC.

NA: 46.5m (~58%)
+ US: 42.5m (~55%)

EU: 24.5m (~30%)
+ UK: 8m (~11%)
+ DE: 3m (~3%)
+ FR: 3.5m (~4%)

NA (2) + UK + DE + FR: 76%

You can added more IT (~2%), AU + NZ (~3%), BR (1%), ME (~2%), ES (2%), IR (0.5%), AT (0.5%)

1% = ~800k (I put 1% for Brazil but it is close to 2 million 360 units sold here... so more like 2%)

13 Countries  = ~87%

I'm being fair putting low % to some countries that have a 360 userbease bigger.

You can release Xbone even in Mars... that's wont add 1m or 1.5m sales in four months... look more like 500k maximum.

Welcome do reality.


The only advantage I see is the 10% Japan for PS3... but for PS4 it´s only 5%....

Do this math for PS4, please. 



Normchacho on 27 March 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
Normchacho said:
Dark_Feanor said:
DerNebel said:
ICStats said:




Except of course that the Ps4 sales from just the U.S. U.k. Germany, and France are higher than the Xbox One WW sales. (as of 3/15)

That leaves only 2.2 million sales for the remaining 46 PS4 markets. How many sales do you expect the 37 remaining markets for the Xbox One to add? It's a much more english speaking market focused console.

If we look at PS4 sales... the Xone could have had a 20 to 25% boost. Or at your own account a 1 to 1.5mi extra.

What is wrong if that logic? Is that hard to belive people around the world would be interested in buy a localized oficially suported Xone?

But as I said before, the price is the major issue holding Xone sales.

The PS4 gets a 28% boost from it's remaining 46 markets. You're telling me you think the Xbox One, which is much less popular outside of the english speaking world. Would get between a one and one and a half million sales boost from 37 markets? That's a percentage boost of between 26% and 38%.

From nine less markets in an area the Xbox brand just isn't very popular in...



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

Dark_Feanor on 27 March 2014
ethomaz said:

DerNebel said:

Which was an educated guess, just to make that clear :D

US+UK+Germany+France make up about 71.2% of 360 sales according to vgchartz, I think it's save to assume that the other 9 countries at the very least make up enough marketshare to get above 80% since that would mean only about 7 million consoles sold combined in those markets.

The 13 countries accounts for close 90% of 360 sales in the world.


How do you know that?

The only data we have are from USA, France, UK, Japan and German.



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fluky-nintendy on 27 March 2014

Lol! PS4 outselling XB1 that has the TITANFALL, the game everyone said that would be the PS4 killer. Can't stop laughing



...Let the Sony Domination continue with the PS4...
ethomaz on 27 March 2014

DerNebel said:

We do? Serious question, I can't seem to find any recent numbers from these areas.

Yeap... we have these data.

Australia 2010: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=124294 (360 was leading yet in 2010... PS3 1.1m)

We had these countries numbers back 2011 too.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4278644

In my assumptions for example I used 3% for Australia + New Zelanda... I'm having a hard time to believe that today (2014) 360 have a lifetime sales of only 2.4m combined when in 2011 just Australia have 1.4m.



Dark_Feanor on 27 March 2014
Normchacho said:

The PS4 gets a 28% boost from it's remaining 46 markets. You're telling me you think the Xbox One, which is much less popular outside of the english speaking world. Would get between a one and one and a half million sales boost from 37 markets? That's a percentage boost of between 26% and 38%.

From nine less markets in an area the Xbox brand just isn't very popular in...


Again, the Brazil exemple.

Xbox was nothing here and Playstation was the sinonimous for vide-game, and two generations before was Nintendo.

It dosen´t matter if it´s popular or not, Microsoft could spend tons of money in marketing and othr incentives... may be selling the Xone cheaper than the PS4, which is inflated in some markets.

It´s not set on stone that a market will belong forever to a brand and never shift towards a competitor.



ethomaz on 27 March 2014

Guys my maths are based in old VGC numbers (where they tracked more countries eg. the http://web.archive.org/web/20120119110416/http://www.vgchartz.com/hwtable.php) plus official numbers.

Australia has a lifetime sales of ~1.4m for 360 back in 2011... I think 3% today (~2.4m) is low to AU + NZ today.

I used old or low numbers to reach these 87%... that's why I think close to 90% is more reasonable.



Hankoney on 27 March 2014
Dark_Feanor said:

 

It´s not set on stone that a market will belong forever to a brand and never shift towards a competitor.


You are absolutely correct. We can see the proof in the US and UK this generation.