I posted this on the gamespot forums. It's all made up, but I can get away with a lot more lies over there, then I can here. I can already tell you the Patcher thing is untrue and I knew it, lol. And Yes, I used Wii bingo for the second half:
There are several reasons I believe this(Wii will win the console war), but first let me say, I won't insult anyones intelligence by mentioned things as trivial as "individual games" in this topic. I won't be so foolish to say something like "The PS3 will win because of MGS 4" or something that infers I have a childish and incomplete understanding of how the market is shifted.
A. The PS3 and the 360 are stepping on each others toes. The PS3 and 360 are in direct competition worldwide. In NA, the 360 is the console of choice(January NPD notwithstanding) statically. In Europe and Japan, it's the PS3. People are choosing PS3 or 360. While I feel it is likely the PS3 will win that war, I do believe that if the 360(or PS3) didn't exist, it's competitive HD console would would be neck and neck with the Wii.
B. The Wii is a second console for many. Many HD console owners also buy a Wii, because it is cheap, has great exclusive games, and delivers great experiences for their families as well as themselves, so they can share gaming.
C. Blue Ocean strategy means the Wii's market segment includes the core gamers, while it also includes many casual gamers. This means the Wii is expanding the home console market. It's advertisement for this? Word of mouth and visualization of "friends" from the packaged game Wii sports. This means that 10 out of 100 people might consider buying a PS3 because it is marketed to them. 100 out of 100 might consider buying a Wii because it is marketed to them.
D. Price-point. Other consoles have had price cuts already. The Wii has not. It can have significant price cuts and still make significant profit. If the Wii was 150 bucks, it would win the console war, period.
E. Game selection. Hardcore Nintendo fans from generations past will certainly buy the Wii, but so will new gamers who have games like Carnivle Games to play on the Wii, where on the PS3 and 360, they have little choices with difficult controlling options.
F. Momentum. The Wii is already statically ahead of the Gamecube in sales. People consider buying the console when they hear about this. It's word of mouth marketing. Your brain thinks, "So many people got one, what do they know that I don't." It's the perception of the device, and finally that leads nicely into:
G. The Japanese market has chosen the Wii as its next gen console. That means, many Japanese developers will create games for the system. In Japan, the Wii is consistantly outselling the PS3 4 to 1, usually about 80,000 units, to 20,000 units, and often even more than that. This means that in Japan, the Wii userbase is already much larger. That means games that only appeal to Japanese gamers, like Monster Hunter 3, will, and have gone Wii exclusive. In the past, the Japanese have always stuck with the console they initially pick as their console of choice for that gen. Japan is a key battle for the PS3, and it is very unlikely the PS3 can ever outsell the Wii there, before the Wii saturation point is reached.
H. This is also due to the Blue Ocean's fondness of the DS, in Japan. New console gamers in Japan, will buy a Wii, because they are new, because of the DS, and are casual gamers, who have a high respect for the Nintendo brand there.
I. Also, the Wii is statically ahead by so much at this point, that even if the Wii sales dropped off by half(which is impossible nearly in a year timespan) it would still be selling more worldwide than both its competitors, and still be even further ahead by 09, at which point, it will be nearly impossible to catch up before the 720 or the Wii2 launches.
J. There is little to no evidence available the Wii will slack off, besides speculation. Demand remains higher than supply, and the Wii is still the top seller in every major region worldwide with no indications of a change, besides broad and hopeful speculations.
Now to debunk some reasons others give for the Wii to drop in sales:
1. Lack of 3rd party games - This reason is only presented by the core audiences. 15 of the top 20 selling games in December for the Wii, were 3rd party. You can confirm this from the recent Iwata interview. Just because you don't like the games in the top 10, doesn't mean Wii owners don't. Remember, this is a diverse userbase. They like Brawl, but they also like Wii-Fit. It is also to note, that the Wii has quite a slew of games available in 08 that are new support from 3rd party companies, due to sales, like Rock Band, Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, Final Fantasy, Alone in the Dark, Tales of Symphonia, Fragile, Facebreakers, Madden, Tiger Woods, and Monster Hunter. I have compiled a list recently and it contains over 61 non shovelware titles, and I can post it if requested.
2. When Game X is released the Wii is finished - Halo 3 nor DMC 4 finished the Wii, or even phased it. Single games have little affect on across platform industry sales that is visible in the short term.
3. When PS60 get price cut, Wii is through - Each system has already had price cuts or SKU changes to lower the price. The Wii has had none. Don't forget the Wii can also benefit from such tactics.
4. Nintendo is abandoning the hardcore, therefore sales of hardcore gamers will die - Nintendo fanboys are hardcore gamers and they will never abandon the Wii, however, Nintendo is putting out more first party core games now, than ever before, 4 to 6 a year for the Wii, plus the casual 1st party games.
5. Nintendo not serious about online, therefore that market will leave them - According to IGN, Japanes Brawl plays lag free. However, Nintendo does not live and die by its online community, particularly when it is a second console for many online gamers.
6. Wii is just a party machine. Sales will decline due to console sharing lowering the saturation point - Software sales say otherwise, when games like NMH, Resident Evil, Zelda, and Brawl perform better than expected. These games are single player, and not relyiant on the "party atmosphere."
7. Wii sells because it is cheap. If the other systems are cheaper, they will sell just as well - This was not the case with the Gamecube, which was cheaper from the start. The Wii sells because of perception.
8. Pachter says the PS3 will win - Patcher is biased, so is Jaffe, they have never predicted anything right that wasn't obvious in the past, nor do they base their guesses off current sales, but predicted trends.
9. Gamecube started out well at first too, therefore, the Wii will die just like it did - The Wii has already outsold the Gamecube worldwide, 6 times faster, outselling the Gamecube 6 to 1. Even if it does "die" historically it's trail off sales would be enough to sustain it for this generation and the next one.
10. Wii is a fad, and will die once people "realize" X about X other console - Not according to the numbers, by definition, the Wii cannot be considered a fad.
11. Lower quality minigames will jade casuals who buy them and give them a bad view of Nintendo - If bad PR ruined a company, Microsoft and Sony would have been out of business a long time ago.
12. PS3 is on a ten year plan - If so, the Playstation brand will be dead in 10 years, when it releases it's playstation 4 against the twilight years of the wildly popular Wii 2s and the Xbox 720s. The PS4 will release a year after Xbox, if it waits that long, it probably won't.
13. Only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo systems, therefore, 3rd parties will leave the system, and it will die - The Wii doesn't need 3rd party games to sell well, we've seen that, but atm, 3rd parties are clammoring to the Wii, not away from it. Particularly, EA, Activision, Atlus, Ubisoft, Namco, Square-Enix, and Capcom.
14. When HD adoption rate goes up, Wii is finished.- By then it will be far to late to make a comeback, but that said, Casuals don't know the Wii isn't in HD, and it supports 420P, which looks leaps and bounds better than SD. Casuals, and new HD-TV owners will buy a Wii as quicly as they will buy a 360. The PS3 will benefit from this due to Blu-Ray, but it won't make one bit of difference in Japan, where the PS3 vs Wii war is most vital, because graphics mean nothing to sales in Japan.
15. What happens when people get bored of Wii Sports? - A. Wii Sports 2 is in development. B. SSB: Brawl and Wii Fit are around the corner. C. See 2008 Wii game list. Sorry for being a snarky, but "points" like this one are silly.
