Simple question. Do you guys think it will? Yes? No?

Using shipment data from wikipedia (I know wikipedia can be unreliable, but I checked the sources)

PS1 - 102.49M

Wii - 100.9M (as of Dec 31st, 2013)

Difference = 1.59M

Things to consider:

• VGC has current sell through at 100.52M for the Wii, that means there are around ~400K Wiis out there in warehouses/retail stores
•  Wii sales in Japan are statistical noise at this point, MC has stopped tracking it and Famitsu/VGC will probably stop shortly as well (by the end of this year, at the latest). I think it's fair to say the sales there are from current stock and very small shipments, if any, will go there.
•  For the CY of 2013, the Wii has shipped 1.52M units, but only 600K in the busiest quarter (Oct-Dec 2013)
•  Price wise, it has hit the $99/EU99 price point and has been sitting there for awhile
•  Wii sales according to VGC by year are

•  Shipments by year (FY, which is Apr - Mar) are

* 2014 is still missing Q4 shipment and rest of CY data

3-4 years ago, people were talking "when will the Wii pass the PS2". I never thought it passing the PS1 was in doubt, but now I think it comes down to the wire. Let's be generous and assume Nintendo ships 400K Wiis in Q4, that brings the YOY drop percentage to -63% and its total to 1.47M for the year. The Wii total would then go to 101.3M by March 2014, I don't think anyone thinks the wii will be in production past FY 2017 (ending in Mar 2017) will be the Wii's last FY in production.  Considering the Wii is at the tail end of its life and has dropped like a rock, both in sales (as seen by VGC numbers) and in shipments, it's fair to assuming a 60% YOY drop for the Wii shipments for the next 3 FYs (I think this YOY drop percentage is very generous, but let's use it for the sake of argument). Using our assumption of 400K shipped for Q4 this year we would get:

2014 - 1.47M

2015 - 590K

2016 - 240K

2017 - 100K

I actually rounded those numbers up very generously. That would bring the estimated total to 102.23M, just 260K behind the PS1. Like I said, this was pretty much a given for the Wii in 2010, heck even last year it was still a given. Now I'm not so sure. I think the assumptions above (60% YOY drop for the next 3 years and 400K shipped for Q4 when there are 400K Wiis in stores now) can be considered the very best case scenario for the Wii. Just like the DS got awfully close to PS2 but couldn't pass it, I think the same will happen for the Wii and the PS1.

Maybe, it will be close but maybe... Depends if China decides to buy wii's

Ahhh good point on China ban lift. Even though people have been buying there from black/gray markets for years, it could give the Wii the necessary boost to outsell the PS1.

i thought it would have before, but it is dying quickly and it probably would have gotten it by the numbers i was looking at before, but we've had quite a few downward adjustments since then. I don't think it will make it and i don't think there are many things that could lift sales at this point.

No. Wii will soon be discontinued.

I don't think so, wii is dropping hard every year and Nintendo will discontinue it soon. It has a slim chance, if it can't made it, is gonna be damn close.

Never. Which is for the best.

Where does the 102.49M come from? VGC says 104.25M.

Yes.

That's the shipment number from Sony. Not sure how VGC has it at 104.25, but I believe that number is incorrect.