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Forums - Sony - Prediction: PS4 to outsell PS2 lifetime

freedquaker on 21 February 2014
spurgeonryan said:

Is there any doubt that this is going to be the last great console gaming generation? Steam, mobile and other gaming areas are going to continue to grow in the future and consoles will continue to struggle.

X1 and Wii U seem poised to do about as good as the xbox and GC. That is if Wii U can stay out long enough, and I am pretty sure the X1 can turn things around some with a few more games and eventual price cut. But that still leaves the PS4 and all its hype room to kill for the next decade.

I am sure many will agree with me this time?


You mean something like that...?

 
Size 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83


HD 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9


PS4 0.67 0.74 0.67 0.74

PS3 
HD=0.80 PS4=67 HD=0.80 PS4=74 HD=0.90 PS4=67 HD=0.90 PS4=74
2006 1,252,040 2013 1,864,148 2,058,910 2,097,167 2,316,274
2007 9,194,799 2014 13,690,034 15,120,336 15,401,288 17,010,378
2008 19,095,804 2015 28,431,530 31,401,989 31,985,472 35,327,237
2009 31,835,593 2016 47,399,661 52,351,864 53,324,618 58,895,847
2010 45,595,160 2017 67,886,127 74,978,708 76,371,893 84,351,046
2011 60,758,573 2018 90,462,764 99,914,098 101,770,610 112,403,360
2012 73,357,818 2019 109,221,640 120,632,856 122,874,345 135,711,963
2013 80,614,472 2020 120,025,992 132,566,021 135,029,241 149,136,773

 



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Lawlight on 22 February 2014
vkaraujo said:
Lawlight said:
Consoles will continue to struggle? Are they struggling now?


In fact i think they could be.

PS3 took years until it started to give any kind of profit, xbox loosing 2 bi for microsoft and Nintendo out of touch with the market, and paying for this.

Developers are also on a similar boat, millions spend without any assurance of return, some reporting loses or really low profits.

3DS losing to ds, even with VITA being dead. VITA being dead.

 

I am not sure the industry is sustainable at all.


You're comparing the cost of making a PS3 back in the day with the cost of making a PS4 now. You need to read a bit on that before you make such a claim. There's too many things wrong with your comparison here.

And not all developers are making losses - those without compelling products or who go way over budget sure are. Look at Irrational. They wouldn't have been in trouble if they didn't take 6 years to make 1 game.

3DS and Vita are handhelds - not the same as consoles.



Azhraell on 22 February 2014

I wonder if it can. Since Wii u looks like gonna end up selling at Gamecube levels and XB1 is not doing so hot apart of America. Depends of how long Sony support it... but well PS4 has been getting incredible records, why not?



Azhraell on 22 February 2014
freedquaker said:
spurgeonryan said:

Is there any doubt that this is going to be the last great console gaming generation? Steam, mobile and other gaming areas are going to continue to grow in the future and consoles will continue to struggle.

X1 and Wii U seem poised to do about as good as the xbox and GC. That is if Wii U can stay out long enough, and I am pretty sure the X1 can turn things around some with a few more games and eventual price cut. But that still leaves the PS4 and all its hype room to kill for the next decade.

I am sure many will agree with me this time?


You mean something like that...?

 
Size 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83


HD 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9


PS4 0.67 0.74 0.67 0.74

PS3 
HD=0.80 PS4=67 HD=0.80 PS4=74 HD=0.90 PS4=67 HD=0.90 PS4=74
2006 1,252,040 2013 1,864,148 2,058,910 2,097,167 2,316,274
2007 9,194,799 2014 13,690,034 15,120,336 15,401,288 17,010,378
2008 19,095,804 2015 28,431,530 31,401,989 31,985,472 35,327,237
2009 31,835,593 2016 47,399,661 52,351,864 53,324,618 58,895,847
2010 45,595,160 2017 67,886,127 74,978,708 76,371,893 84,351,046
2011 60,758,573 2018 90,462,764 99,914,098 101,770,610 112,403,360
2012 73,357,818 2019 109,221,640 120,632,856 122,874,345 135,711,963
2013 80,614,472 2020 120,025,992 132,566,021 135,029,241 149,136,773

 

Wait, so you are expecting PS4 to peak at least with 23 millions? And just for reference, how many millions sold PS2 in its peak year?



adriane23 on 22 February 2014
AZWification said:

Spurgeonryan is not on crack. He is simply being spurgeonryan.

So meth then?

I actually do believe the PS4 will hit 160mil though.



I am the Playstation Avenger.

   

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freedquaker on 22 February 2014
leyendax69 said:
freedquaker said:
spurgeonryan said:

Is there any doubt that this is going to be the last great console gaming generation? Steam, mobile and other gaming areas are going to continue to grow in the future and consoles will continue to struggle.

X1 and Wii U seem poised to do about as good as the xbox and GC. That is if Wii U can stay out long enough, and I am pretty sure the X1 can turn things around some with a few more games and eventual price cut. But that still leaves the PS4 and all its hype room to kill for the next decade.

I am sure many will agree with me this time?


You mean something like that...?

 
Size 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83


HD 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9


PS4 0.67 0.74 0.67 0.74

PS3 
HD=0.80 PS4=67 HD=0.80 PS4=74 HD=0.90 PS4=67 HD=0.90 PS4=74
2006 1,252,040 2013 1,864,148 2,058,910 2,097,167 2,316,274
2007 9,194,799 2014 13,690,034 15,120,336 15,401,288 17,010,378
2008 19,095,804 2015 28,431,530 31,401,989 31,985,472 35,327,237
2009 31,835,593 2016 47,399,661 52,351,864 53,324,618 58,895,847
2010 45,595,160 2017 67,886,127 74,978,708 76,371,893 84,351,046
2011 60,758,573 2018 90,462,764 99,914,098 101,770,610 112,403,360
2012 73,357,818 2019 109,221,640 120,632,856 122,874,345 135,711,963
2013 80,614,472 2020 120,025,992 132,566,021 135,029,241 149,136,773

 

Wait, so you are expecting PS4 to peak at least with 23 millions? And just for reference, how many millions sold PS2 in its peak year?


I can't exactly say that I am predicting those numbers but those are the figures that appear under numerous scenarios that are likely to happen. Here, basically I assume:

a) The market will shrink by 17% (from 240 million to 200 million total 8th gen consoles sold in 7 years). Again this is not my "prediction" but barely an "educated guess" for now.

b) I assume the hardcore console market (playstation and xbox) will expand from 60% (X360 + PS3) to 80-90% range (XB1 + PS4).

c) I expect, among the hardcore consoles only (PS4, XB1) PS4 to have 67-74% global market share, 55-65% in US, 75-85% in EU, and over 90% in Japan.

... And all those expectations put the numbers into those regions, PS4 will have sold...

by the end of 2014, between 13.7 to 17 million

by the end of 2020, between 120 to 149 million



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

jamesmarkus87 on 22 February 2014

Outsell PS2? Let's not shoot for the moon here. PS4 has come off to an excellent start, and it's inevitable that it's going to maul Xbox One and Wii U. But if console gaming truly is dying out, then PS4 might not have legs like its three predecessors.



Meret on 22 February 2014

lol. no



Azhraell on 22 February 2014

freedquaker said:

 I can't exactly say that I am predicting those numbers but those are the figures that appear under numerous scenarios that are likely to happen. Here, basically I assume:

a) The market will shrink by 17% (from 240 million to 200 million total 8th gen consoles sold in 7 years). Again this is not my "prediction" but barely an "educated guess" for now.

b) I assume the hardcore console market (playstation and xbox) will expand from 60% (X360 + PS3) to 80-90% range (XB1 + PS4).

c) I expect, among the hardcore consoles only (PS4, XB1) PS4 to have 67-74% global market share, 55-65% in US, 75-85% in EU, and over 90% in Japan.

... And all those expectations put the numbers into those regions, PS4 will have sold...

by the end of 2014, between 13.7 to 17 million

by the end of 2020, between 120 to 149 million

Thanks. Interesting analysis, is more than likely the total of 8th gen will decrease, but mainly because of wii. I hope you are right about PS4 and sells a lot.



AZWification on 22 February 2014
d21lewis said:
Seriously, Spurge. What's up with you and these sensationalist threads, lately?

His threads that aren't sensationalist aren't getting any attention. :(



                
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