Prediction: PS4 to outsell PS2 lifetime

[freedquaker]

leyendax69 said:

freedquaker said:

spurgeonryan said:

Is there any doubt that this is going to be the last great console gaming generation? Steam, mobile and other gaming areas are going to continue to grow in the future and consoles will continue to struggle.

X1 and Wii U seem poised to do about as good as the xbox and GC. That is if Wii U can stay out long enough, and I am pretty sure the X1 can turn things around some with a few more games and eventual price cut. But that still leaves the PS4 and all its hype room to kill for the next decade.

I am sure many will agree with me this time?

You mean something like that...?

 

		Size	0.83	0.83	0.83	0.83
		HD	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9
		PS4	0.67	0.74	0.67	0.74
	PS3		HD=0.80 PS4=67	HD=0.80 PS4=74	HD=0.90 PS4=67	HD=0.90 PS4=74
2006	1,252,040	2013	1,864,148	2,058,910	2,097,167	2,316,274
2007	9,194,799	2014	13,690,034	15,120,336	15,401,288	17,010,378
2008	19,095,804	2015	28,431,530	31,401,989	31,985,472	35,327,237
2009	31,835,593	2016	47,399,661	52,351,864	53,324,618	58,895,847
2010	45,595,160	2017	67,886,127	74,978,708	76,371,893	84,351,046
2011	60,758,573	2018	90,462,764	99,914,098	101,770,610	112,403,360
2012	73,357,818	2019	109,221,640	120,632,856	122,874,345	135,711,963
2013	80,614,472	2020	120,025,992	132,566,021	135,029,241	149,136,773

 

Wait, so you are expecting PS4 to peak at least with 23 millions? And just for reference, how many millions sold PS2 in its peak year?

I can't exactly say that I am predicting those numbers but those are the figures that appear under numerous scenarios that are likely to happen. Here, basically I assume:

a) The market will shrink by 17% (from 240 million to 200 million total 8th gen consoles sold in 7 years). Again this is not my "prediction" but barely an "educated guess" for now.

b) I assume the hardcore console market (playstation and xbox) will expand from 60% (X360 + PS3) to 80-90% range (XB1 + PS4).

c) I expect, among the hardcore consoles only (PS4, XB1) PS4 to have 67-74% global market share, 55-65% in US, 75-85% in EU, and over 90% in Japan.

... And all those expectations put the numbers into those regions, PS4 will have sold...

by the end of 2014, between 13.7 to 17 million

by the end of 2020, between 120 to 149 million