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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global SW & HW UP!! - Week ending Feb 8 (ADJUSTMENTS - PS4 157k, X1 54k, WiiU 36k - PS4 64% marketshare)

Xevross on 17 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
Zero999 said:
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:
zorg1000 said:

U never get tired of being wrong 

so, you also think ps4 will sell several hundred thousand on japan's launch?

The WiiU, Vita, and 3DS all launched with over 300k FW. If they can do it then so can the PS4. 

Ilogical. I'm looking at comgnet pre orders and the numbers aren't high.

You realize that almost all Nintendo titles have low pre-orders, right? They always sell so badly. Like SM3DW did horribly. Pre-orders don't mean much for the overall sales.

I don't think any console will do very well in Japan in the 8th gen, but how is it "illogical" that the PS4 can match the Wii U in Japan first week sales? If anything, it appears to be really front-loaded, which would suggest a good launch with a rather severe drop (like the Wii U).

I hardly think you're one to talk about over-and underestimation on this site.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5468729

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5377770

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5845237

And that's the tip of the iceberg. I think we can safely disregard your analysis on the situation. You have yet to make a single objective statement on vgchartz and you have never once gotten a single prediction even halfway right.

But...but.. what if this is an alternate reality and we haven't realised it yet? 0_0



http://vizioneck.com/

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Mummelmann on 17 February 2014
Xevross said:
Mummelmann said:
Zero999 said:
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:
zorg1000 said:

U never get tired of being wrong 

so, you also think ps4 will sell several hundred thousand on japan's launch?

The WiiU, Vita, and 3DS all launched with over 300k FW. If they can do it then so can the PS4. 

Ilogical. I'm looking at comgnet pre orders and the numbers aren't high.

You realize that almost all Nintendo titles have low pre-orders, right? They always sell so badly. Like SM3DW did horribly. Pre-orders don't mean much for the overall sales.

I don't think any console will do very well in Japan in the 8th gen, but how is it "illogical" that the PS4 can match the Wii U in Japan first week sales? If anything, it appears to be really front-loaded, which would suggest a good launch with a rather severe drop (like the Wii U).

I hardly think you're one to talk about over-and underestimation on this site.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5468729

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5377770

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5845237

And that's the tip of the iceberg. I think we can safely disregard your analysis on the situation. You have yet to make a single objective statement on vgchartz and you have never once gotten a single prediction even halfway right.

But...but.. what if this is an alternate reality and we haven't realised it yet? 0_0


To be fair; "around 3 million" is grossly off the mark when it was in actuality 3.2 million...



Xevross on 17 February 2014
Mummelmann said:

To be fair; "around 3 million" is grossly off the mark when it was in actuality 3.2 million...

Yeah, you should be ashamed, thats way closer to his prediction of 10 million ;)



http://vizioneck.com/

small44 on 17 February 2014
Farsala said:
small44 said:
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:
Justagamer said:
Blood_Tears said:
Justagamer said:
Zero999 said:
pezus said:
Zero999 said:
pezus said:
Zero999 said:
pezus said:

PS4 with 61% marketshare this week...without Japan

japan won't be very relevant in that percentage for more than 2 weeks.

Haha, want to bet? PS4 should sell more in its third week in Japan than WiiU WW that week, barring complete sellouts and lack of stock.

You will regret it. it may even be hard for ps4's japan 3rd week to compete with wii u's japanese sales for the same week.

Alright. Conditions?

sounds straight forward. I win if ps4 week 3 in japan < Wii U WW numbers for the same week.

you win if I win if ps4 week 3 in japan > Wii U WW numbers for the same week.


I agree with zero, the ps4 won't lght Japan on fire. The ps3 sold like 1.5 million a year there? Wow that's massive.....


So whatever happened last gen automatically locks in the trends of the new gen?    Great logic you have there..


I'm sorry if my "opinion" doesn't match up to yours! But if you look at the last gen, the wii sold pretty well and didn't set Japan on fire either. PS3 sold pretty slow too. I'm not saying the ps4 won't sell pretty well, but I think that Japan has shown they aren't as "into" consoles as other countries are. Now you acting like just because it's the ps4, it will suddenly change that. Now THATS even greater logic you have there..

edit: even Sony sees Japan as the #3 market, why else would they wait until February to release it in their homeland? Consoles just aren't that huge there anymore. It's just a reality.

Consoles were very popular last gen in Japan.

PS2+GC+XB=about 28 million

PS3+Wii+360=about 24 million

The huge decline in Japan is very exaggerated and there is still cleary a market for them.


It is probably not so cut and dry as that. Last gen was a very long gen and this gen probably will not be. PS2 was a monster so that gen was very good, and last gen was so long that the PS3 could get close to Wii numbers. Basically I expect a new console in at least 5 years compared with 6 and 7 years for last gen.

Why do you think this generation will not last as long as the last generation

I cannot see companies taking losses for 5 years if Sony dominates.

How do you know Microsoft is not making money with xbox one it's not because sold a lot more xbox one has to be not profitable.



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

ethomaz on 17 February 2014

Expected adjustments table coming soon... Xbone is overtracked in US yet.



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Zero999 on 17 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
Zero999 said:
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:
zorg1000 said:

U never get tired of being wrong 

so, you also think ps4 will sell several hundred thousand on japan's launch?

The WiiU, Vita, and 3DS all launched with over 300k FW. If they can do it then so can the PS4. 

Ilogical. I'm looking at comgnet pre orders and the numbers aren't high.

You realize that almost all Nintendo titles have low pre-orders, right? They always sell so badly. Like SM3DW did horribly. Pre-orders don't mean much for the overall sales.

I don't think any console will do very well in Japan in the 8th gen, but how is it "illogical" that the PS4 can match the Wii U in Japan first week sales? If anything, it appears to be really front-loaded, which would suggest a good launch with a rather severe drop (like the Wii U).

I hardly think you're one to talk about over-and underestimation on this site.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5468729

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5377770

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5845237

And that's the tip of the iceberg. I think we can safely disregard your analysis on the situation. You have yet to make a single objective statement on vgchartz and you have never once gotten a single prediction even halfway right.

bolded: "The WiiU, Vita, and 3DS all launched with over 300k FW. If they can do it then so can the PS4. "

illogical to use other consoles sales and simply say ps4 will sell equally for no reason. ps4 games pre orders are very low, all games combined are about as big as nsmbu.

I won't even bother opening the useless links you posted. try to counter me instead of relying on irrelevant past.

how do you think the ps4 can sell a lot in the japanese launch when game pre orders indicate around 150k software will be sold? that's the question no one is trying to answer.

ps: 3d world sold more than twice it's pre orders, dk more than 3 times. this kind of proportion doesn't happen on sony titles.



Blood_Tears on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Justagamer said:
Blood_Tears said:

When did I say that?  Just after a ban and already making false accusations.  Your going to be a real treat here.  :)


It seemed implied. What else did you mean then? And there's no  need for low blows here.  I simply said based on past hardware trends that the ps4 wasn't going to set Japan on fire. You said great logic.... So whatever. It's ok if you don't like me. I think I can still sleep knowing that. Lol 

Did you base your PS4 predictions in the west on PS3 trends in the west, too?

Boom!    That's my implication to him!  Somebody gets it.   :)



Zero999 on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Justagamer said:
Zero999 said:
pezus said:
Zero999 said:

You will regret it. it may even be hard for ps4's japan 3rd week to compete with wii u's japanese sales for the same week.

Alright. Conditions?

sounds straight forward. I win if ps4 week 3 in japan < Wii U WW numbers for the same week.

you win if I win if ps4 week 3 in japan > Wii U WW numbers for the same week.


I agree with zero, the ps4 won't lght Japan on fire. The ps3 sold like 1.5 million a year there? Wow that's massive.....

1.5m/year is 29k/week on average. You don't think PS4's third week can be higher than PS3's average weekly sales (it should only need about 35k to top WiiU WW)

bolded: there's another of the points I wrote.



Zero999 on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Zero999 said:

bolded: "The WiiU, Vita, and 3DS all launched with over 300k FW. If they can do it then so can the PS4. "

illogical to use other consoles sales and simply say ps4 will sell equally for no reason. ps4 games pre orders are very low, all games combined are about as big as nsmbu.

I won't even bother opening the useless links you posted. try to counter me instead of relying on irrelevant past.

how do you think the ps4 can sell a lot in the japanese launch when game pre orders indicate around 150k software will be sold? that's the question no one is trying to answer.

ps: 3d world sold more than twice it's pre orders, dk more than 3 times. this kind of proportion doesn't happen on sony titles.

The past can often be very relevant. Check it out sometimes, you might learn something.

How do the game preorders indicate 150k software? With new consoles, games usually sell more than the COMG points would indicate. That's because a lot of people get caught in the hype and buy it on launch without having pre-ordered. I know I wouldn't pre-order a game for a console I don't own yet, so it makes sense.

Anyway, how much do you think PS4 can sell FW? Let's assume 150k software will be sold, so you'd think maybe 120-150k hardware?

And you're still ignoring Vita, whose biggest games were a golf game and Uncharted. They didn't get many pre-orders either, yet it sold over 300k.

game pre orders indicate 150k software (maybe less) because they're sitting at around 150 points right now (134 that we know + minor titles thet don't sow up).

it should raise to 160 points or so untill launch. SALES points, even if they get to 250 would still mean sales of around 120k-150k at best.

You mentioned vita, it sold 320k hardware and 274 software, it doesn't matter what the best selling title was since we are talking about totals.

3ds sold 372 hardware and 344 software, wii u sold 306k hardware and 372 software.

Give or take, we have a pattern of hardware being 20% more or less the software. maybe 3ds and vita sold more consoles than games because of more digital sales, maybe it's a handheld thing. regardless, if ps4 combined software gets around 150k combined, the range of hardware would be 120k-180k. what you can't do is simply say: consoles a,b and c sold this much on launch, so ps4 will match those numbers.



ethomaz on 17 February 2014

ADJUSTMENTS IN PREVIOUS WEEKS * NPD TIME *

3DS -60,622
PS3 -11,508
360 -59,096
Wii -9,899
PSP -3,412
PSV 66
Wii U -25,337
PS4 10,791
Xbone -50,091