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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pokemon Comparison's: XY Currently Over Half Of Total BW Sales 2nd Year [0.82mil vs 1.28mil]

 

XY Will Sell How Many Units In Its 2nd Year? (2014)

5mil+ 50 38.17%
 
4.5mil-5mil 11 8.40%
 
4mil-4.5mil 13 9.92%
 
3.5mil-4mil 10 7.63%
 
3mil-3.5mil 19 14.50%
 
2.5mil-3mil 10 7.63%
 
2mil-2.5mil 6 4.58%
 
1.5mil+2mil 7 5.34%
 
1mil-1.5mil 1 0.76%
 
Total:127
garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
HylianSwordsman said:
I've got to be misunderstanding this. You mean to tell me that X/Y sold in less than 3 months just a small percentage of difference from games that sold for 9 months, and on a much smaller userbase and a more expensive system? I thought Japan had been the biggest supporter, but now it looks like relatively speaking they're the weakest in terms of legs. Unless the sales are absurdly front loaded, X/Y stands a chance at being bigger than D/P. I thought 20 mil was just a dream before, but it actually looks somewhat realistic. Especially with X/Y having the best online in the series, it really feels like it could be huge. Imagine if it beat Gold and Silver?


It's crazy, but they're doing that good.  Pokemon XY have over a 27% attach rate to the 3DS (using Nintendo's numbers as of December 31, 2013), and that's still growing!  If Z or Hoenn remakes are not even announced until 2015, which I think is very possible, giving Pokemon XY the 2014 holiday season as well, I can easily see it beating Diamond/Pearl.  Beating Gold/Silver is a stretch, I think, but I would be so pleased just to see it challenge it!



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tbone51 on 02 February 2014
HylianSwordsman said:
I've got to be misunderstanding this. You mean to tell me that X/Y sold in less than 3 months just a small percentage of difference from games that sold for 9 months, and on a much smaller userbase and a more expensive system? I thought Japan had been the biggest supporter, but now it looks like relatively speaking they're the weakest in terms of legs. Unless the sales are absurdly front loaded, X/Y stands a chance at being bigger than D/P. I thought 20 mil was just a dream before, but it actually looks somewhat realistic. Especially with X/Y having the best online in the series, it really feels like it could be huge. Imagine if it beat Gold and Silver?


Outside of Japan Yes other two games had more time to sell. We will have to wait and see how much it sells this year first. Also like garret said, sales can be cut shorter due to a new main release in 2014.

 

As of right now (11mil sales despite wat vgc says) i say these are a very reasonable scale of wat pokemon XY can sell Lifetime...

Worst Case Scenario

14mil-14.5mil= If a New Pokemon Game is released in 2014 + If XY legs are cut short like BW (Minumum Sales)

15mil-15.5mil= If no new game is released 2014 + XY legs are cut short like BW 

 

Most likely Case Scenario

15mil-16mil = Most likely what will happen if a new game is released in 2014 (has good legs)

16mil-17mil = No new game in 2014 (has good legs)

 

Best Case Scenario (this needs to happen)

16mil-18mil = if a new game comes out in 2014 but sales still are huge year 2 (has to sell about 4mil)

17mil-20mil= if no new game comes out in 2014 and sales dominate in its year 2 (sales are 5mil+ in 2014!!!!)

 

 



HylianSwordsman on 02 February 2014
garretslarrity said:
HylianSwordsman said:
I've got to be misunderstanding this. You mean to tell me that X/Y sold in less than 3 months just a small percentage of difference from games that sold for 9 months, and on a much smaller userbase and a more expensive system? I thought Japan had been the biggest supporter, but now it looks like relatively speaking they're the weakest in terms of legs. Unless the sales are absurdly front loaded, X/Y stands a chance at being bigger than D/P. I thought 20 mil was just a dream before, but it actually looks somewhat realistic. Especially with X/Y having the best online in the series, it really feels like it could be huge. Imagine if it beat Gold and Silver?


It's crazy, but they're doing that good.  Pokemon XY have over a 27% attach rate to the 3DS (using Nintendo's numbers as of December 31, 2013), and that's still growing!  If Z or Hoenn remakes are not even announced until 2015, which I think is very possible, giving Pokemon XY the 2014 holiday season as well, I can easily see it beating Diamond/Pearl.  Beating Gold/Silver is a stretch, I think, but I would be so pleased just to see it challenge it!


By my calculations, with VGChartz numbers, the attach rate is only a little under 24%, but that's still better than any other gen except Gen 1. If it keeps that attach rate, it'll be bigger than Gold/Silver if 3DS indeed sells over 100 mil like people think it will. If the attach rate grows (say to 27% like you say it is now), and if the 3DS gets Game Boy level numbers like I think it might, X/Y could challange Gen 1...

Dare to dream...



HylianSwordsman on 02 February 2014
tbone51 said:

Outside of Japan Yes other two games had more time to sell. We will have to wait and see how much it sells this year first. Also like garret said, sales can be cut shorter due to a new main release in 2014.

I really don't expect anything major in 2014 for Pokemon. Ruby/Sapphire remakes won't come until 2015 at best. Even by VGChartz numbers, the attach rate is better than all gens except gen 1, and by your numbers, they might even be better than that.



garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
HylianSwordsman said:
garretslarrity said:
HylianSwordsman said:
I've got to be misunderstanding this. You mean to tell me that X/Y sold in less than 3 months just a small percentage of difference from games that sold for 9 months, and on a much smaller userbase and a more expensive system? I thought Japan had been the biggest supporter, but now it looks like relatively speaking they're the weakest in terms of legs. Unless the sales are absurdly front loaded, X/Y stands a chance at being bigger than D/P. I thought 20 mil was just a dream before, but it actually looks somewhat realistic. Especially with X/Y having the best online in the series, it really feels like it could be huge. Imagine if it beat Gold and Silver?


It's crazy, but they're doing that good.  Pokemon XY have over a 27% attach rate to the 3DS (using Nintendo's numbers as of December 31, 2013), and that's still growing!  If Z or Hoenn remakes are not even announced until 2015, which I think is very possible, giving Pokemon XY the 2014 holiday season as well, I can easily see it beating Diamond/Pearl.  Beating Gold/Silver is a stretch, I think, but I would be so pleased just to see it challenge it!


By my calculations, with VGChartz numbers, the attach rate is only a little under 24%, but that's still better than any other gen except Gen 1. If it keeps that attach rate, it'll be bigger than Gold/Silver if 3DS indeed sells over 100 mil like people think it will. If the attach rate grows (say to 27% like you say it is now), and if the 3DS gets Game Boy level numbers like I think it might, X/Y could challange Gen 1...

Dare to dream...


Like I said, I went by Nintendo's numbers, for both XY and the 3DS, to determine the attach rate, not VGChartz's.  

As much as I'd love to be optimistic, there's no way it could keep the attach rate throughout the lifespan of the 3DS.  Once the next main series game is released, or even announced, the attach rate will begin to decline.  Also, I'd like to why you think the 3DS can make it to Game Boy levels.



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NintendoPie on 02 February 2014

If any other Pokemon game is not announced or released this year, then X/Y can most likely do 3-3.5 Million. If Nintendo are dumb and announce a new Pokemon this year, X/Y sales will slow.



tbone51 on 02 February 2014
NintendoPie said:
If any other Pokemon game is not announced or released this year, then X/Y can most likely do 3-3.5 Million. If Nintendo are dumb and announce a new Pokemon this year, X/Y sales will slow.


Aside from new gen games pokemon third versions (or remakes) never get announced intill 5-7 months  from release. So if they were to come out in 2014 we should here about them between Apr-June. but thats if it comes out this year! If next year te earliest they'll announce it imo is Jan (2015)



NintendoPie on 02 February 2014
tbone51 said:


Aside from new gen games pokemon third versions (or remakes) never get announced intill 5-7 months  from release. So if they were to come out in 2014 we should here about them between Apr-June. but thats if it comes out this year! If next year te earliest they'll announce it imo is Jan (2015)

They should probably wait till February or so, then release in Summer if they want a new Pokemon next year.

Giving X/Y 2014 would be a good idea.



tbone51 on 02 February 2014
NintendoPie said:
tbone51 said:


Aside from new gen games pokemon third versions (or remakes) never get announced intill 5-7 months  from release. So if they were to come out in 2014 we should here about them between Apr-June. but thats if it comes out this year! If next year te earliest they'll announce it imo is Jan (2015)

They should probably wait till February or so, then release in Summer if they want a new Pokemon next year.

Giving X/Y 2014 would be a good idea.



I agree (or jan to surprise us for the new year!). Especially when Z (next game) might bring us into a new region+have extra pokemon in it! (most likely another 5-10 mega's!) Its heavily hinted too

garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
tbone51 said:
NintendoPie said:
If any other Pokemon game is not announced or released this year, then X/Y can most likely do 3-3.5 Million. If Nintendo are dumb and announce a new Pokemon this year, X/Y sales will slow.


Aside from new gen games pokemon third versions (or remakes) never get announced intill 5-7 months  from release. So if they were to come out in 2014 we should here about them between Apr-June. but thats if it comes out this year! If next year te earliest they'll announce it imo is Jan (2015)


I agree that they will probably announce Z (or the Hoenn remakes) in early 2015.  That just makes the most sense to me.  Now that I have more confidence regarding that, I could see Pokemon XY selling over 17M lifetime.



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