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Forums - Sales Discussion - WW HW and SW Up 11th January 2014

pezus said:
superhippy420 said:
I actually thought the Wii U drop would be greater considering it consistently sold about 20k - 33k per week from January to October of last year. SM3DW really has given it a bump, the problem is that interest and sales were so low, due to a lack of software that a 80 percent bump just brings sales from horrible to not very good. It's Nintendo's own fault though. If Donkey Kong and Mario Kart were out right now, it would be doing atleast 140k per week. I'm also very interested to see how good/bad the launch in Japan is for the PS4. I'm just not sure the software will be there that is going to pull in 300k+ in week one sales, and I think Sony knows that too, which is why as a Japanese company they launched in the U.S. and Europe first.

Last year's sales were around 48k. So not really a bump to speak of.

PS4 will surprise you and others when it launches in Japan, I'm sure.


Wii U has sold 1.4 million consoles since SM3DW's launch and, it's all going to depend on where sales stabilize now.  If they settle at 40+k per week, then SM3DW is the only reason for that bounce, because its litterally the AAA game to come out for the Wii U in a year. I love Pikmin and Wind Waker, but Niche and Remake titles were never going to do jack squat for the console.     I honestly would'nt be shocked either way when the PS4 comes out in Japan.  It's more curiosity because these strong launches in the U.S. and Europe make sense to me.  Call of Duty was the strongest console seller last gen in the U.S., Fifa was the strongest in Europe.  It launched with both, so it's really no shock that demand is so high.   In Japan though it was carried by Final Fantasy,Resident Evil, and Dynasty Warriors.   They are getting a Dynasty Warriors 8 complete edition but the one on PS3, didnt exactly sell that great in the 1st place.  We will just have to wait and see, I could see it being huge or having a slow start over there.



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Wii U is heading back to where it was for most of last year it seems. I had hope it would stay around the 75K mark but that was asking far too much.

Xbone selling 25K in the European markets that matters most is not so good.

Has Vita now become in America what the xbox is in Japan?

If those queues are anything to go by PS4 is going to have bumper sales next week in the US, depending on shipment.



It's going to be tough for anyone to track Wii Fit U. It sold only 22k in retail, but with over 40 million Wii balance boards already out there, I really doubt there is much of a market to move a bunch of new ones. The Fit Meters though seem to be selling very well at Gamestop and Amazon and that's a whole lot of digital copies. We will probably never have a real number.



Einsam_Delphin said:
Great for PS4/3DS! Good for X1! Terrible but expected for WiiU/Vita!



Btw how much did the original Wii Fit do opening week? I was gonna say "yay Wii Fit U bombed!" but then it doesn't seem like the kinda game to have a big first week as opposed to long legs.

Wii Fit (May 2007) sold 620,674 in the US opening week (3 days of sales).

Wii Fit Plus (Oct 2009) sold 177,924 in its US opening week (6 days of sales).

Wii Fit U released on Jan 10, 2014, sold 22,801 in the US opening week (1 day of sales).



Puppyroach said:
freedquaker said:
sully1311 said:

Weekly Hardware Chart 11th January 2014

 

PlatformN. AmericaEuropeJapanGlobal
74,704 81,744 N/A 187,997
43,787 54,620 62,710 171,784
75,559 25,054 N/A 106,010
18,919 36,366 14,646 90,758
5,357 15,740 31,476 60,382
28,045 20,343 370 53,188
22,354 12,670 14,211 53,040
2,116 15,763 4,678 32,926
7,154 10,868 386 20,662

If PS4 had been released in Japan, it would have sold between 33K and 58K, and the PS4 sales would climb up to 221 K - 246 K range.

This means, with Japan included, and despite the supply issues in US and elsewhere, PS4 would already start selling more than twice as much as XB1 globally.

PS4 sales / XB1 sales (With Japan included)

Max => 245849 / 106010 = 2.32  (30% - 70%)

Min => 220951 / 106010 = 2.08  (32% - 68%)

And if X1 would have been released in the rest of the countries in Europe, the numbers would be quite different. what is the purpose of playing the "what if" game?


I am not just trying to play a hypothetical "what if" game. These numbers are based on VGChartz Data, regarding Japanese and Global Sales, and projections from PS3 to PS4. I have purposefully given a large Interval to double check whether or not the expected numbers could be misleading but they are not. I am giving these numbers to show "What kind of a trend we can expect in 2014 in terms of average weekly market sale".

There is a reason why XB1 is not released in OTHER COUNTRIES. Because nobody knows it there. Xbox is a brand known only in the English speaking world, save some hardcore gamers who would know ANYTHING. (When I say everyone, I mean OVER 95%, while nobody implies BELOW 5%). So XB1 has little chance in those OTHER territories mainly because

- They will be virtually as hostile to XB1 as Japan, except some weird market factors (as in Brazil, where taxation is a huge bitch)

- Those markets are tiny, all of them together possibly equal UK or so.

- Hardware may sell in those countries but the software market is even tinier. Developing countries usually don't have disposable income and habit of paying on intangible assets (software, games etc...)

  Even worse for MS, this is only the beginning. PS4 sales in US will increase, so it will no longer be 1-to-1, with PS4 taking the lead by at least 20% in the long run, and XB1 will start to become irrelevant in the non-English speaking world. So, yes, 2-to-1 is the BEST POSSIBLE MIRACLE SCENARIO that Microsoft can only hope for.

DonFerrari said:

Actually PS4 numbers would be the same as now, because there isn't extra supply to be sold there. Now Xbone would benefit

You are actually right. I was implicitly assuming that the supply weren't an issue. The analysis is still very useful to show the expected weekly market share in the upcoming weeks after the Japanese release.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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TheLegendaryWolf said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
Great for PS4/3DS! Good for X1! Terrible but expected for WiiU/Vita!



Btw how much did the original Wii Fit do opening week? I was gonna say "yay Wii Fit U bombed!" but then it doesn't seem like the kinda game to have a big first week as opposed to long legs.

Wii Fit (May 2007) sold 620,674 in the US opening week.

Wii Fit Plus (Oct 2009) sold 177,924 in its US opening week.

Wii Fit U released on Jan 10, 2014, the Chart  is from Jan 11, so those 22,801 are from 1 day of sales in the US.

What a freak drop. Nintendogs drop friend?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

darthdevidem01 said:
oniyide said:
Skeeuk said:
the Wii is looking awfully lonely down there, look at ps3 and xbox 360 in comparison - ps360 have and always were the better consoles than the Wii


the nature of the WIi was never going to ensure its longetivity IMHO at least compared to PS360

Perhaps. Or Nintendo simply couldn't capitalize on the audience.

They got one thing right by making Wii appeal to them. But after Wii Fit Nintendo dropped the ball, and 3rd parties were never on board.

Same story with the DS.

Apple (well ios devs) are managing to keep all its "mobile gamers" hooked still.

It's not even Nintendo's fault...as they had to focus on their hardcore users with the Wii too. They should've upscaled the entire company in that period (they sure had the money to do it). That upscale could've paid off now with the troubles they had with WiiU HD dev.


i disagree i think they did capitalize on the audience, but the audience didnt stick around and were never really going too once the novelty wore off.

Nobody is hooking anybody on iOS, people NEED phones, its really that simple. That audience isnt going anywhere because they have no where to go. People dont need consoles, and i think the audience figured that out quickly.

No its not Ninty's fault, it was going to play out like this regardless



DonFerrari said:
TheLegendaryWolf said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
Great for PS4/3DS! Good for X1! Terrible but expected for WiiU/Vita!



Btw how much did the original Wii Fit do opening week? I was gonna say "yay Wii Fit U bombed!" but then it doesn't seem like the kinda game to have a big first week as opposed to long legs.

Wii Fit (May 2007) sold 620,674 in the US opening week.

Wii Fit Plus (Oct 2009) sold 177,924 in its US opening week.

Wii Fit U released on Jan 10, 2014, the Chart  is from Jan 11, so those 22,801 are from 1 day of sales in the US.

What a freak drop. Nintendogs drop friend?


Both Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus ended up selling over 20 million worldwide, but I don't expect numbers anywhere near those for Wii Fit U.



TheLegendaryWolf said:
DonFerrari said:
TheLegendaryWolf said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
Great for PS4/3DS! Good for X1! Terrible but expected for WiiU/Vita!



Btw how much did the original Wii Fit do opening week? I was gonna say "yay Wii Fit U bombed!" but then it doesn't seem like the kinda game to have a big first week as opposed to long legs.

Wii Fit (May 2007) sold 620,674 in the US opening week.

Wii Fit Plus (Oct 2009) sold 177,924 in its US opening week.

Wii Fit U released on Jan 10, 2014, the Chart  is from Jan 11, so those 22,801 are from 1 day of sales in the US.

What a freak drop. Nintendogs drop friend?


Both Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus ended up selling over 20 million worldwide, but I don't expect numbers anywhere near those for Wii Fit U.


How much you expect?? 5M? That would be high number going by WiiU numbers... probably 1M LTD.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Is it normal for out of 75 games on the USA chart for only 2 to be by Japanese 3rd party publishers (and there western developers too)?

It just seems more often lately that Japan's big 6 3rd party's are ignoring the west.