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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analysis: January 2008 NPD Sales

^alot main stream people got money over the holidays, could not find a Wii, so got a PS3 because the money was eating a whole in their pocket.

I know ALOT of people who get like 250 from their parents and another 100 from grandparents then maybe another 100 from who knows who..

If Wii had been in much better supply I have no doupt that the PS3 numbers would have been down.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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bigjon- an interesting idea, but unluckily normally sales don't work like that. I know people like to think that people will jump ship due to supply constraints, but we must understand that people buy by brand. And if that brand is sold out when they go to buy it, they normallyl won't jump ship on brand. Why? Well usually its because they don't know about the other brand. They think that brand is the only one in its class and there is no alternative. Or they think the rest aren't as good and think this is the one to get. How else would it get so popular.

Normally people that will jump ship like that are your more "educated" buyers or core buyers. Which, by the way, is a minority in the gaming market.



Well Nintendo is projecting about 2.8 million more Wii's to be shipped WW by the end of the FY2007, which is about 400K per week until the end of March



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Actually one of my co-workers kids did what I just described. he recieved about $350 of Cmas gift and 2 weeks ago gave up on looking for a Wii and got a 360 arcade. He still wants a Wii, but he will wait til next Cmas or some Bday.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Microsoft said they will have shortages through Feb. so the part where you say "lets wait for Feb NPD" doesn't work since they are already making excuses for it.



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Bigjon, I was arguing with someone when I first signed up. (Gebx) He was saying 360 won 07 fair and square. When i tried to explain how the comparison was unfair because it wasn't out for the full 12months in others he said "Ok they would have only sold an extra 360,000 units and MS still won" and then I tried to state that "Well with that 360k the 360 would have sold less which would make '07 a WHOLE lot closer."

He then went on saying "Youre telling me people who wanted a console couldn't wait three months untill the release of the Ps3 and bought 360 instead" When I tried to tell him I knew people who bought 360 before Ps3's launch because they wanted a Next-gen console he called me a liar. Funny how you are saying you also know someone who did it.



I agree. except Ninty stockpiling.



DMeisterJ said:
I agree. except Ninty stockpiling.

Well it's really hard to explain why Wii sales are so low when you know it's sold out, but you know there definetly had to be a lot more shipments ready.  All I know is somehow Americans are getting gipped out of Wiis they should have gotten in January, for Wii sales to be that low.  So that was just my theory on possibly why.  Which is actually kind supported by this site, who has February sales immediately jumping up. 



It has to do with Nintendo predictions, as they only have 2.8 million left in their predicted shipments (compared to VGC sales figures), which was already a bumped up amount than their original predictions for the FY



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

I can't believe someone could write an analysis about NPD console hardware numbers for last month and fail to mention Blu-Ray even once. Or call the 360 a "failing brand" based on one month of sales in which the PS3 outsold it by 39 thousand units when for the previous four months the 360 outsold the PS3 by 408 thousand in September, 245 thousand in October, 304 thousand in November, and 462 thousand in December.

As for your comment: "360 wouldn’t be able to survive, even in America" are you kidding? It's already a hit in America just based on software sales alone, didn't you look at the top 10 best selling games for January when you were doing your analysis?

Also I don't get your comment about the 360 being in short supply for November (was it?) and what does that have to do with January? You're claiming Microsoft is pulling a "coverup" but do you have anything at all to back up your claim? People were talking about Xbox 360 shortages (Premiums and Elites) well before Microsoft ever came out and said anything. NeoGAF for example had a thread that had people from various parts of the U.S. finding the same thing.

Tell you what, come back when NPD releases their numbers for April and May and claim again that the 360 is a failing brand in America (you'll understand what I'm talking about when those numbers are released).