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Forums - Gaming Discussion - According to VGChartz Estimates, Xbox One will win December 2013 NPD for 8th Gen Home Consoles

 

Do you believe the X1 won?

Yes 44 28.39%
 
No 102 65.81%
 
results 9 5.81%
 
Total:155
DonFerrari on 12 January 2014
Carl2291 said:
ethomaz said:
It will be fun PS4 won December.


Can you link me to ethoChartz? A quick Google search doesnt give me anything.

Would ethoChartz be reliable? Even if he had a ethochartz I know a lot of users here that would doubt every number and other that would threat them as gospel.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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thismeintiel on 12 January 2014
Carl2291 said:
ethomaz said:
It will be fun PS4 won December.


Can you link me to ethoChartz? A quick Google search doesnt give me anything.

I'm pretty sure he meant "if PS4 won December."  Cut him some slack, English isn't his first language.  Though, I do have to say, he's improved since being on here.  VGC is the true Rosetta Stone. 

@ OP

Even if the Xbox One wins, it won't be a win.  Basically, the only reason it won was due to limited supply for the PS4, which sells out almost everywhere within 24 hrs of being put on shelves and online.  Even with supply contraints, the PS4 is keeping neck and neck, which is another loss for MS, as they need to win NA by a large margin to even stay competitive in the console race. 

Of course, I have a gut feeling that Sony was able to put out enough consoles to just beat them in Dec.  And once they can keep enough units on shelves, and the launch demand has died down for the One, the gap will start to increase.



 

ethomaz on 12 January 2014

thismeintiel said:

I'm pretty sure he meant "if PS4 won December."  Cut him some slack, English isn't his first language.  Though, I do have to say, he's improved since being on here.  VGC is the true Rosetta Stone. 

that was what I said.



Noobie on 15 January 2014
ioi said:
Noobie said:

what is slightly higher estimate limit in numbers?

If NPD says PS4  sold 100k more than XBO? will it still fall within margin of error that in actuality XBO won?


I don't work for NPD so I wouldn't like to make a definitive claim on their accuracy but from what I know about their methodology then yeah I'd say if their estimates are within 100k of each other that still wouldn't be enough of a gap to be certain of which had sold more than the other in reality.

The bigger point though really, is if we knew the actual sales of both and they were within 50k of each other it would still be a little silly in the context of how close they are to proclaim one the winner. If I read a poll in which they ask a question and 53% say yes and 47% say no then in my mind that's a tie - there isn't a strong consensus either way.

This is an excellent post that illustrates how I think sales data should be viewed - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=175893 - you have to look at the big picture basically. Comparing one thing to another over a particular period of time and saying that one has won because it is 5% ahead of the other is meaningless in my book. Only if something is way ahead of something else has it really won. Then you have to take into account the sheer number of variables involved and how different events can affect things. For example, if you look at this graph from that post (which uses NPD numbers but we can make do with that to make the points):

It shows how "ifs" and "maybes" can cause things to play out totally differenty. Up to year 4, Xbox 360 wasn't selling significantly better than the original Xbox but at that point they took two totally different paths and ultimately 360 has ended up outselling the original by nearly 3:1. Look at how different systems saw different peaks at various points in their lifecycle and how two things that look pretty close end up in totally different places.

In my mind, Gamecube, Xbox, PS3 and Xbox 360 all performed roughly the same as each other in the first 4 years - there is obviously a gap between 360 and GC sales in year 4 but nowhere near as significant as the gap to PS2 or Wii which you can see are on totally different trajectories at that point. I find trying to draw an analysis from one thing being 5-10% ahead of another is meaningless and pointless as things can change so quickly anyway. Only when one is 50-100% ahead of the other can we really start to claim that it has "won".

Thanks for the detailed response. But i think my point was something a bit different. I am not talking about how the future will play out or how the PS4 will perform 2 - 3 years from now.. or will the VITA sell suddenly 15m this calendar year.. I was simply asking what is the confidence level you have on your numbers.? Just like most election surveys, give you an estimate of what will be the result with some degree of confidence and most of the time they are now pretty accurate. 

I got my interest in video game sales data from this website. This is the first website which introduced me to hits and misses of video games. But now i feel that  his website has started lagging. I am not sure how you calculate your estimates but i believe it definitely needed some improvement. I wish it return to its glory days and serve the gaming community even better. 



http://techorate.blogspot.com/

http://caylu.wordpress.com/

007BondAgent on 15 January 2014

Since when did vgchartz ever correctly predict the npd



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kirby007 on 15 January 2014

I wouldn't be suprised if NPD has them tied

I'm still happy both seems to do well in NA, just curious how they will hold next few months



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 15 January 2014

The launch periods generally are boring, 6 months in is when it starts getting interesting



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Aerys on 15 January 2014

VGC data are wrong, still 100k missing ( 4,1M sold as of December 28th when sony announce 4,2M )



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

LiquorandGunFun on 15 January 2014

Cool story bro.



 

Noobie on 14 February 2014
ioi said:
Noobie said:

Thanks for the detailed response. But i think my point was something a bit different. I am not talking about how the future will play out or how the PS4 will perform 2 - 3 years from now.. or will the VITA sell suddenly 15m this calendar year.. I was simply asking what is the confidence level you have on your numbers.? Just like most election surveys, give you an estimate of what will be the result with some degree of confidence and most of the time they are now pretty accurate. 

I got my interest in video game sales data from this website. This is the first website which introduced me to hits and misses of video games. But now i feel that  his website has started lagging. I am not sure how you calculate your estimates but i believe it definitely needed some improvement. I wish it return to its glory days and serve the gaming community even better. 


Our data is more accurate today than it ever has been in the past - we have more sources, more servers, more people working on it and more experience that ever before. It certainly isn't "lagging"!


It is because of NPD result like of Jan that i feel that VGC data is not based on actual sample to calculate. I have noticed it regularly that when ever there is a sudden explosive sales or massive down in sales VGC fails to identify it correctly.. X360, XBO , 3DS, Wii U all suddenly collapsed in sales and VGC estimated them just like Normal Dec -> Jan drop.. it was okay for PS4 & PS3 numbers.. because normally sales drop 80% for an old system like PS3 and around 60 - 70% for a supply constrained system... But X360 and 3DS and other collapsed 90% or more.. and VGC didnt estimated them correctly



http://techorate.blogspot.com/

http://caylu.wordpress.com/