ioi said:
The bigger point though really, is if we knew the actual sales of both and they were within 50k of each other it would still be a little silly in the context of how close they are to proclaim one the winner. If I read a poll in which they ask a question and 53% say yes and 47% say no then in my mind that's a tie - there isn't a strong consensus either way. This is an excellent post that illustrates how I think sales data should be viewed - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=175893 - you have to look at the big picture basically. Comparing one thing to another over a particular period of time and saying that one has won because it is 5% ahead of the other is meaningless in my book. Only if something is way ahead of something else has it really won. Then you have to take into account the sheer number of variables involved and how different events can affect things. For example, if you look at this graph from that post (which uses NPD numbers but we can make do with that to make the points):
It shows how "ifs" and "maybes" can cause things to play out totally differenty. Up to year 4, Xbox 360 wasn't selling significantly better than the original Xbox but at that point they took two totally different paths and ultimately 360 has ended up outselling the original by nearly 3:1. Look at how different systems saw different peaks at various points in their lifecycle and how two things that look pretty close end up in totally different places. In my mind, Gamecube, Xbox, PS3 and Xbox 360 all performed roughly the same as each other in the first 4 years - there is obviously a gap between 360 and GC sales in year 4 but nowhere near as significant as the gap to PS2 or Wii which you can see are on totally different trajectories at that point. I find trying to draw an analysis from one thing being 5-10% ahead of another is meaningless and pointless as things can change so quickly anyway. Only when one is 50-100% ahead of the other can we really start to claim that it has "won". |
Thanks for the detailed response. But i think my point was something a bit different. I am not talking about how the future will play out or how the PS4 will perform 2 - 3 years from now.. or will the VITA sell suddenly 15m this calendar year.. I was simply asking what is the confidence level you have on your numbers.? Just like most election surveys, give you an estimate of what will be the result with some degree of confidence and most of the time they are now pretty accurate.
I got my interest in video game sales data from this website. This is the first website which introduced me to hits and misses of video games. But now i feel that his website has started lagging. I am not sure how you calculate your estimates but i believe it definitely needed some improvement. I wish it return to its glory days and serve the gaming community even better.
