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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Which console will be in first place by the end of 2014?

 

Which console will have the most Lifetime sales by the end of 2014?

Wii U 210 25.55%
 
PS4 569 69.22%
 
Xbox One 42 5.11%
 
Total:821
vivster said:

First, the WiiU didn't outsell the X1. This was revised by VGC and X1 is now comfortably in front in that week. Also PS4 outsold it by a large margin.

Second, if 2013 and the holiday season say anything then the price advantage currently does nothing with many people even claiming the price for the WiiU is much too high while the PS4 is actually considered relatively cheap for a launch console of that caliber.

Third, I think we can argue about this all day. I may be selling the WiiU and the games a bit short but you certainly oversell them. I wouldn't take the Wii numbers as any indication for the WiiU.

We will see end of spring how far the gap is between PS4 and WiiU and then we can argue again if it is possible for WiiU to close the gap when it's already at a disadvantage. If the one unit I will buy of the WiiU next year doesn't help it then nothing will^^

#1: Fair enough, but my point is still the same regardless. The "newness" factor of the next gen consoles is wearing out. The X1 is already hovering near Wii U numbers (it was only 50K ahead), and while I'll certainly grant that the PS4 for the moment is still comfortably ahead, it certainly isn't going to stay at 600 K a week numbers forever.

#2: I would say the holidays indicate the price cut does quite a lot, although the holidays are certainy shaky ground for determining trends at best. A year old console has competed fairly well with a couple of new console releases, with all of the hype accompanying them. It certainly hasn't been blown out of the water, like all the doomsday threads suggested.

#3: I'm not trying to take Wii sales as a given. Like I said in my post above, I am in no way suggesting that these games will sell a combined 50 million units, or anything similar. The Wii U certainly has a much smaller install base, and a much smaller appeal than the Wii. Hence why I used average sales, and threw out MK8 as an outliar. Trust me, I'm not trying to skew things in Nintendo's favor here.

Considering the Wii U's install base, it'll probably be even smaller than average. But MK and SSB routinely sell so well that even if they didn't perform as well as they have in the past, it'd still be a huge boost, and it'd almost assuredly sell more than a few consoles as well.

All of this is speculation, of course, so yeah, I guess waiting til Spring is probably the best solution at this point.



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MTZehvor said:
vivster said:

First, the WiiU didn't outsell the X1. This was revised by VGC and X1 is now comfortably in front in that week. Also PS4 outsold it by a large margin.

Second, if 2013 and the holiday season say anything then the price advantage currently does nothing with many people even claiming the price for the WiiU is much too high while the PS4 is actually considered relatively cheap for a launch console of that caliber.

Third, I think we can argue about this all day. I may be selling the WiiU and the games a bit short but you certainly oversell them. I wouldn't take the Wii numbers as any indication for the WiiU.

We will see end of spring how far the gap is between PS4 and WiiU and then we can argue again if it is possible for WiiU to close the gap when it's already at a disadvantage. If the one unit I will buy of the WiiU next year doesn't help it then nothing will^^

#1: Fair enough, but my point is still the same regardless. The "newness" factor of the next gen consoles is wearing out. The X1 is already hovering near Wii U numbers (it was only 50K ahead), and while I'll certainly grant that the PS4 for the moment is still comfortably ahead, it certainly isn't going to stay at 600 K a week numbers forever.

#2: I would say the holidays indicate the price cut does quite a lot, although the holidays are certainy shaky ground for determining trends at best. A year old console has competed fairly well with a couple of new console releases, with all of the hype accompanying them. It certainly hasn't been blown out of the water, like all the doomsday threads suggested.

#3: I'm not trying to take Wii sales as a given. Like I said in my post above, I am in no way suggesting that these games will sell a combined 50 million units, or anything similar. The Wii U certainly has a much smaller install base, and a much smaller appeal than the Wii. Hence why I used average sales, and threw out MK8 as an outliar. Trust me, I'm not trying to skew things in Nintendo's favor here.

Considering the Wii U's install base, it'll probably be even smaller than average. But MK and SSB routinely sell so well that even if they didn't perform as well as they have in the past, it'd still be a huge boost, and it'd almost assuredly sell more than a few consoles as well.

All of this is speculation, of course, so yeah, I guess waiting til Spring is probably the best solution at this point.

#1 XB1 is in 13 countries and I imagine some have supply issues (not the US it seems) even so you really can't judge anything right now, holiday sales make things so hard to predict for new consoles.

#2 November NPD, WiiU 220k, XB1 910k, PS4 1.2m. That is definitely blowing WiiU out of the water. Same as UK. What other region do you want to compare? Japan has no competition, anywhere else and PS4 is doing far far better than WiiU.

#3 I'm sure MK and Smash will sells consoles, but a huge boost? Did they give Gamecube a huge boost?



 

daredevil.shark said:
PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One.


i'm feeling this. 



Seece said:
MTZehvor said:
vivster said:

First, the WiiU didn't outsell the X1. This was revised by VGC and X1 is now comfortably in front in that week. Also PS4 outsold it by a large margin.

Second, if 2013 and the holiday season say anything then the price advantage currently does nothing with many people even claiming the price for the WiiU is much too high while the PS4 is actually considered relatively cheap for a launch console of that caliber.

Third, I think we can argue about this all day. I may be selling the WiiU and the games a bit short but you certainly oversell them. I wouldn't take the Wii numbers as any indication for the WiiU.

We will see end of spring how far the gap is between PS4 and WiiU and then we can argue again if it is possible for WiiU to close the gap when it's already at a disadvantage. If the one unit I will buy of the WiiU next year doesn't help it then nothing will^^

#1: Fair enough, but my point is still the same regardless. The "newness" factor of the next gen consoles is wearing out. The X1 is already hovering near Wii U numbers (it was only 50K ahead), and while I'll certainly grant that the PS4 for the moment is still comfortably ahead, it certainly isn't going to stay at 600 K a week numbers forever.

#2: I would say the holidays indicate the price cut does quite a lot, although the holidays are certainy shaky ground for determining trends at best. A year old console has competed fairly well with a couple of new console releases, with all of the hype accompanying them. It certainly hasn't been blown out of the water, like all the doomsday threads suggested.

#3: I'm not trying to take Wii sales as a given. Like I said in my post above, I am in no way suggesting that these games will sell a combined 50 million units, or anything similar. The Wii U certainly has a much smaller install base, and a much smaller appeal than the Wii. Hence why I used average sales, and threw out MK8 as an outliar. Trust me, I'm not trying to skew things in Nintendo's favor here.

Considering the Wii U's install base, it'll probably be even smaller than average. But MK and SSB routinely sell so well that even if they didn't perform as well as they have in the past, it'd still be a huge boost, and it'd almost assuredly sell more than a few consoles as well.

All of this is speculation, of course, so yeah, I guess waiting til Spring is probably the best solution at this point.

#1 XB1 is in 13 countries and I imagine some have supply issues (not the US it seems) even so you really can't judge anything right now, holiday sales make things so hard to predict for new consoles.

#2 November NPD, WiiU 220k, XB1 910k, PS4 1.2m. That is definitely blowing WiiU out of the water. Same as UK. What other region do you want to compare? Japan has no competition, anywhere else and PS4 is doing far far better than WiiU.

#3 I'm sure MK and Smash will sells consoles, but a huge boost? Did they give Gamecube a huge boost?

#1: Do you sincerely believe that any of those countries it hasn't been released in will make any signficant difference in sales figures?

#2: I'll certainly grant that when the consoles were launched, they blew the Wii U out of the water. I was more thinking going down the line, three/four or so weeks after launch and beyond. Comparing the first two weeks of a consoles lifetime to two weeks of a console that's more than a year old now is by no means a fair comparison.

#3: It's a little difficult to judge Smash, considering it launched virtually alongside the Gamecube. Nevertheless, the Gamecube sold over 4.5 million units within its first six months (and was only avaliable in America for five of those months); it's hard to imagine that Smash Bros didn't have an effect on that.

And as for Mario Kart, I don't have concrete numbers on the Gamecube's sales and how they tracked, but I do have quarterly numbers, so consider this: In the three quarters of 2003 that Mario Kart did not release in, the Gamecube sold roughly a combined 1.6 million units(so on average 525K per quarter). In the quarter that Mario Kart was released in, the Gamecube sold 3.5 million units. Again, hard to imagine that Mario Kart wasn't a big factor behind that.

If Smash Bros and Mario Kart both gave the Wii U a 2 million unit boosts, which is an underestimate by Gamecube standards, yes, I would certainly qualify that as a "huge boost."



small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
If there's something I've learnt about sales in this very website, is that we never know what to expect. Sales always take weird twists.
Looking at the current situation it's logical to assume PS4 will be the winner, but the real question is, will it be able to keep it's momentum? Will Wii U be able to make some sort of comeback (I'm not saying an epic one, just one good enough to compete properly against PS4)? What will happen with Xbox One? What about handhelds? I don't think that PS Vita will surpass 3DS but what if it suddenly starts selling great and 3DS sales lower making the gap between them decrease at a slow but steady rate?

Now, seriously people, we don't know what to truly expect specially since we have no idea what will companies do. Wii U + 3DS bundle? PS4 + Vita bundle? New services? What will happen when the Steam Machines come out and how will it affect the consoles sales? So much to think about.

If wii u manage to compete with ps4 it will be one of the most epic comeback but it imposible without 3rd party support same for psv it won't surpass Nintendo 3ds without 3ed party support.

Like I said, there's just so much to think about. We won't know how long will PS4 keep up these sales. Many people seem to believe it will always sell at these levels, but the truth is that we won't know 'till we see it for ourselves. Maybe it was just the initial hype + holidays, maybe  the console really is that convincing as for people to buy it in masses at anytime of the year, so as I said we won't know for sure until numbers speak. We also don't know what will happen with Wii U. Miyamoto's new IP can be either an epic fail or an epic win, X looks very promising, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will be decisive, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Yarn Yoshi aren't system sellers at all but are definitely strong additions to the catalogue. I'll just go ahead and quote myself: Sales always take weird twists. Personally, I'd like them all to do at least well enough to make profit.


3rd party is what make a console successfull not first party,Nintendo first party didn't save Gamecube ,the lack of support kill it,Wii is a exception dispite the lack of 3rd party support casual gamers make it succesfull,casual don't seems interested on Wii u and 3rd party will not support wii u because people would prefer to play their game on ps4/xboxone because they are more powerfull.


But if those first party titles allows the Wii U to sell more hardware then the userbase will be bigger and third-partys will be able sell more, so at least they will make a port for it since there are bigger chances for it to make a profit. The other positive result will be the  fact that since the community is bigger, in order to maintain a good image the games for Wii U will be taken more seriously and will be better optimized and have better support (DLCs and such). About the power thing, in that case everyone should simply dispose their console and buy a high-end PC. More expensive? Yes. More powerful and updated? Yes. You get what you pay for.



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Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii u's 2014 lineup is quite ahead of ps4/xone's. and even games that may actually be big, like FF 15 (if it's 2014), still have lot's of time to be confirmed for wii u.

it isn't. Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year. WiiU won't be getting many if any big third party games, third parties have been burnt enough,

"Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year."

I'm 100% sure that multiple wii u 2014 exclusives will outsell those two.



Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii u's 2014 lineup is quite ahead of ps4/xone's. and even games that may actually be big, like FF 15 (if it's 2014), still have lot's of time to be confirmed for wii u.

it isn't. Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year. WiiU won't be getting many if any big third party games, third parties have been burnt enough,

"Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year."

I'm 100% sure that multiple wii u 2014 exclusives will outsell those two.

Everything you say is 100% sure to happen, never happens. Like your 100% WiiU won't be under 6m this year.

But really. You know what Halo sells right?? What multiplat is going to come close to that on WiiU? Pray tell.



 

Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii u's 2014 lineup is quite ahead of ps4/xone's. and even games that may actually be big, like FF 15 (if it's 2014), still have lot's of time to be confirmed for wii u.

it isn't. Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year. WiiU won't be getting many if any big third party games, third parties have been burnt enough,

"Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year."

I'm 100% sure that multiple wii u 2014 exclusives will outsell those two.

Everything you say is 100% sure to happen, never happens. Like your 100% WiiU won't be under 6m this year.

But really. You know what Halo sells right?? What multiplat is going to come close to that on WiiU? Pray tell.

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!



JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii u's 2014 lineup is quite ahead of ps4/xone's. and even games that may actually be big, like FF 15 (if it's 2014), still have lot's of time to be confirmed for wii u.

it isn't. Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year. WiiU won't be getting many if any big third party games, third parties have been burnt enough,

"Uncharted and Halo will outsell every WiiU exclusive this year."

I'm 100% sure that multiple wii u 2014 exclusives will outsell those two.

Everything you say is 100% sure to happen, never happens. Like your 100% WiiU won't be under 6m this year.

But really. You know what Halo sells right?? What multiplat is going to come close to that on WiiU? Pray tell.

In your first post you said exclusive. Now you are talking about multiplats? iOy dios mio!

yeah? Because he brought it up. I said exclusive because it's a given Halo and Uncharted will outsell every WIiU multiplat. Perhaps I should have said Halo and Uncharted would outsell every WiiU game?

Edit - XD oh he said MULTIPLES, I read that as multiplats. You can't blame me, he's come out with some ... wild stuff.

Still, no there won't be multiple WiiU games to outsell Halo lol.



 

Seece said:
MTZehvor said:
vivster said:

First, the WiiU didn't outsell the X1. This was revised by VGC and X1 is now comfortably in front in that week. Also PS4 outsold it by a large margin.

Second, if 2013 and the holiday season say anything then the price advantage currently does nothing with many people even claiming the price for the WiiU is much too high while the PS4 is actually considered relatively cheap for a launch console of that caliber.

Third, I think we can argue about this all day. I may be selling the WiiU and the games a bit short but you certainly oversell them. I wouldn't take the Wii numbers as any indication for the WiiU.

We will see end of spring how far the gap is between PS4 and WiiU and then we can argue again if it is possible for WiiU to close the gap when it's already at a disadvantage. If the one unit I will buy of the WiiU next year doesn't help it then nothing will^^

#1: Fair enough, but my point is still the same regardless. The "newness" factor of the next gen consoles is wearing out. The X1 is already hovering near Wii U numbers (it was only 50K ahead), and while I'll certainly grant that the PS4 for the moment is still comfortably ahead, it certainly isn't going to stay at 600 K a week numbers forever.

#2: I would say the holidays indicate the price cut does quite a lot, although the holidays are certainy shaky ground for determining trends at best. A year old console has competed fairly well with a couple of new console releases, with all of the hype accompanying them. It certainly hasn't been blown out of the water, like all the doomsday threads suggested.

#3: I'm not trying to take Wii sales as a given. Like I said in my post above, I am in no way suggesting that these games will sell a combined 50 million units, or anything similar. The Wii U certainly has a much smaller install base, and a much smaller appeal than the Wii. Hence why I used average sales, and threw out MK8 as an outliar. Trust me, I'm not trying to skew things in Nintendo's favor here.

Considering the Wii U's install base, it'll probably be even smaller than average. But MK and SSB routinely sell so well that even if they didn't perform as well as they have in the past, it'd still be a huge boost, and it'd almost assuredly sell more than a few consoles as well.

All of this is speculation, of course, so yeah, I guess waiting til Spring is probably the best solution at this point.

#1 XB1 is in 13 countries and I imagine some have supply issues (not the US it seems) even so you really can't judge anything right now, holiday sales make things so hard to predict for new consoles.

#2 November NPD, WiiU 220k, XB1 910k, PS4 1.2m. That is definitely blowing WiiU out of the water. Same as UK. What other region do you want to compare? Japan has no competition, anywhere else and PS4 is doing far far better than WiiU.

#3 I'm sure MK and Smash will sells consoles, but a huge boost? Did they give Gamecube a huge boost?

How many countries is Wii U in for comparison and how much do those countries contribute to sales? And from what ive heard/read it doesnt seem like Xbox has any supply issues in Europe and its sales are still rather mediocre there.

But ya im sure Mario Kart/Smash Bros contributed greatly to Gamecube sales, they each sold about 7m and were the #1 & #2 selling games. How well do u think Gamecube would have sold without those games?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.